reports
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 4Q23 Results: Margins to Further Improve in 2024
What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 4Q23 revs were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. User traffic could remain healthy as Kuaishou could reach 400mn DAU by 2H24. Margins could also continue to see upside partly driven by better rev mix and improved efficiency in marketing spending. We maintain our PT at HKD95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 4Q23 Preview: Further Upside in Margins
What’s New: We nudge down our 4Q total revenues partly due to slowdown in gaming (recognized in other revenues), but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees, server + bandwidth, and S&M related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 4Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Key Metrics from Weixin Open Class Pro 2024
What’s New: Tencent held a closed-door Weixin Open Class Pro event this year. We highlight some of the key metrics shared from segments including video accounts and mini games. We also updated our online game revenue estimates for 4Q23. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Updates on Online Game Measures and Other Business Segments
What’s New: We maintain our 4Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, ads, and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Softening tone from regulatory authority on online gam...
On 25 Dec 23, NPPA issued the 11th batch of domestic Banhao with 105 approvals, higher than previous monthly batches’ average of 85. We see a softening tone from NPPA’s draft on online game policy restrictions on 23 Dec 23. However, the execution and impact of the new regulations are yet to be tracked. We are cautiously optimistic on the online game sector’s growth in 2024 with the changes in the regulatory environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunit...
We expect resilient online games sector growth going into 2024, in view of a strong game grossing performance in 3Q23, solid game pipeline with multiple popular genres in 2024 as well as continuously favourable regulatory environment. We foresee ample monetisation opportunities from mini games and AIGC application. NetEase is our top pick given its strong position in the party games genre and margin improvement due to payment channel migration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, December 07, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunities from party games. Shipping And Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volume likely to see a moderate pick-up in 2024. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.42). INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,140/Target: Rp2,500): Fixed broadband subscriber numbers might surge 385% from the migration of LINK’s customers. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM4.41...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
GAM GAMUDA BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
9999 HK NETEASE INC
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 3Q23 Results: Upside in Margins
What's new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q23 results were above consensus and our expectations driven by resiliency in ads. User traffic could remain healthy where DAU could grow by low-single digit YoY, while average daily time spent could remain above 120 mins in 4Q. Margins could see further upside partly driven by better efficiency in marketing spending and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD 95. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Results: Upside in Margins Amid Shift to High Quality Rev...
What’s new: Tencent’s reported 3Q23 revs were largely in line, while margins were above consensus and our expectations. Margins could see further upside amid shift to high-quality revenue growth model, and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD450. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Tencent Holdings (700 HK): 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ma...
Tencent’s 3Q23 results are in line with our expectations. Revenue grew 10.4% yoy to Rmb154.6b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 5.2ppt yoy to 49.5%, better than consensus forecasts. Non-GAAP operating profit surged 35.6% yoy, and non-GAAP OPM expanded 6.7ppt yoy to 35.9%, beating our estimates. Non-IFRS net profit increased 39.3% yoy, 12.4% above consensus forecasts, given a positive revenue mix shift. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$425.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Thursday, November 16, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Stronger retail sales in Oct 23, but FAI stays weak. Initiate Coverage Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$13.04/Target: HK$17.68) Leading developer and TOD mall operator in China’s Tier 1 and 2 cities. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$105.90/Target: HK$186.00) 3Q23: Tempered top-line growth; 4Q23 outlook to be anchored by resilient 11.11 performance. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$322.60/Target: HK$425.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to dr...
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): 3Q23 results preview: Encouraging e-commerce and a...
Kuaishou’s guidance on 3Q23 revenue growth remains unchanged at high teens to twenties, in line with its previous guidance and market expectations. Despite weak seasonality in 3Q23, e-commerce GMV growth remained robust and is projected to surge by 35% yoy. 3Q23 earnings are expected to beat current consensus estimates, bolstered by a solid gross margin improvement and narrowing of overseas losses. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Solid domestic game grossing growth in summer; expect ...
China’s online games market is expected to deliver an encouraging momentum in 3Q23, as reflected by the resilient growth in mobile grossing amid continuous favourable industry development. We opine there are monetisation opportunities for mini-games and AIGC, which will become growth catalysts for the online games market. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
Kuaishou 3Q23 Preview: Upside in Margins
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q top-line but up our margin estimates amid continued optimization in revenue sharing fees and server + bandwidth related costs. In this note, we discuss about the latest updates on the business including financial outlook and user trends in 3Q. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Preview: Estimates Remain Intact
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, social network, ads, fintech and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou (1024 HK): Key takeaways from Asian Gems Conference 2023.
Kuaishou is the world's second-largest short video platform and China's third-largest app with a highly-engaged user community, as well as 376m average DAUs and 117+ min average daily time spent per DAU in 2Q23. It continues to enhance content offerings, including the creation of summer entertainment IPs and original sports IPs. Optimisation of monetisation models resulted in resilient revenue growth across the online marketing and e-commerce segments. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: October conviction calls.
MSCI China and HSI fell 1.2% and 1.4% respectively in September as investors’ sentiment was dampened by the weaker macro data and renewed property sector woes. Moreover, higher US bond yields and US dollar strength added to the downside pressure. For October, we expect further downside pressure, so we add SELLs on Henlius and Xpeng to the list, on top of BUYs on Anta, Lenovo, PICC P&C and SHKP.
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
XPEV XPENG INC. ADR SPONSORED CLASS A
9868 XPENG INC
9888 BAIDU INC
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK): Key takeaways from Kuaishou Investor Da...
On 21 September, Kuaishou organised Kuaishou Investor Day and shared management’s strategies and outlook in each business line, including livestreaming, e-commerce, commercialisation, local consumer services and international expansion. We believe continuous exploration of new business and applications of AGI should be the company’s new growth catalysts. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$100.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Friday, September 22, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: Lithium prices fell below breakeven point, despite buoyant EV sales. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Update Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$60.40/Target: HK$100.00) Key takeaways from Kuaishou Investor Day 2023. TRADERS’ CORNER First Tractor Company Limited (38 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$3.80-3.90 BYD Electronic (International) (285 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$34.00-35.20
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