Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.
2024 saw good performance from the Thai telcos and Singtel and more mixed in Malaysia and Indonesia. In 2025, we think the benefit of consolidation should be more apparent in the latter. Singtel and TRUE remain our top picks in the region.
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
We hosted a brief NDR in London with Singtel Group CFO, Arthur Lang, last week. The backdrop to meetings was once again positive given strong performance in H1, upgraded guidance and a positive market response to the new Value Realisation Dividend.
For 1H25, we believe that a number of stocks within our universe should deliver strong returns in the near to medium term, backed by sustainable dividend yields despite our modest below-consensus 1.2% EPS growth forecast for our covered STI stocks in 2025. We forecast a 2025 year-end target of 4,115 for the STI, implying a 10% upside from current levels. Our top picks are BAL, CD, KEP, MINT, OCBC, SCI, ST, STE, VMS and YZJSGD. For the small/mid caps, we like CENT, CSE, MPM, SSG and VALUE.
Our modest below-consensus 1.2% EPS growth forecast for our covered STI stocks for 2025 belies the fact that there are a number of stocks within our universe that should deliver strong returns in the near to medium term, backed by sustainable dividend yields. We forecast a 2025 year-end target of 4,115 for the STI, implying 10% upside from current levels, with the index’s current valuation looking inexpensive at 2025F PE and P/B of 11.5x and 1.2x respectively.
A director at Singapore Telecommunications Ltd bought 20,000 shares at 3.010SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...
GREATER CHINA Results Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$403.80/Target: HK$570.00): 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; mini shop and potential blockbuster as key catalysts. INDONESIA Results Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp835/Target: Rp1,200): 3Q24: NPAT up 13.7% yoy; slightly above consensus expectations. MALAYSIA Results Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE MK/BUY/RM0.44/Target: RM0.70): 1H24: Positively surprises on project cost claims. Marine segment still weakened by competi...
For 1HFY25, Singtel reported a higher underlying net profit of S$1.2b (+6.1% yoy), driven by higher contributions from Optus and NCS, coupled with better cost discipline from the group’s cost-out programme. The group has identified about S$6b of capital recycling which we reckon would likely come from paring down its stakes in its regional associates and non-core fixed assets. In view of a decent dividend yield of 5.2% and an improving outlook, we maintain BUY with the same target price of S$3.5...
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