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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos & Towers News reports that the Indian government may vo...

Indian press is reporting that the Indian government is planning to cut AGR liabilities for the industry by around INR 1 trn (c. $12bn), by cutting 50% of interest and 100% of penalties and interest on penalties relating to the AGR fines. Implication would be a c. INR 520bn (US$ 6.2bn) reduction in liabilities for Vodafone IDEA and around INR 380bn (US $4.5bn) for Bharti.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2025; Singtel and TRUE remain our top picks reg...

2024 saw good performance from the Thai telcos and Singtel and more mixed in Malaysia and Indonesia. In 2025, we think the benefit of consolidation should be more apparent in the latter. Singtel and TRUE remain our top picks in the region.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...

In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Telcos & Towers What to expect in 2025: FWA S-curve enables mo...

FWA will likely be the key themes of 2025 in Indian Telcos we think, with the market likely to be delivering 5m+ quarterly net adds by the end of the year. This is likely to drive renewed optimism towards Bharti and enable Jio to IPO. Given Jio’s valuation of approaching $200bn if it happens this is likely to be one of the biggest events in Global Telecoms this year. On rolling forward our DCF our Indus pt rises to INR 325 and we lift our recommendation to Neutral, and stay Buyers of both Bharti...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2025

We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...

This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Singtel (Buy, TP: S$4.6, +51%) Feedback from NDR: Positive

We hosted a brief NDR in London with Singtel Group CFO, Arthur Lang, last week. The backdrop to meetings was once again positive given strong performance in H1, upgraded guidance and a positive market response to the new Value Realisation Dividend.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+2)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Singapore Research Team

Singapore Daily: Tuesday, December 10, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Market Strategy For 1H25  Opportunities abound despite muted earnings growth in 2025.  TRADERS' CORNER First Resources (FR SP): Trading BUY                                                                                SATS (SATS SP): Trading SELL

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+2)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Singapore Research Team

Market Strategy For 1H25 - Opportunities Abound Despite Muted Earnings...

For 1H25, we believe that a number of stocks within our universe should deliver strong returns in the near to medium term, backed by sustainable dividend yields despite our modest below-consensus 1.2% EPS growth forecast for our covered STI stocks in 2025. We forecast a 2025 year-end target of 4,115 for the STI, implying a 10% upside from current levels. Our top picks are BAL, CD, KEP, MINT, OCBC, SCI, ST, STE, VMS and YZJSGD. For the small/mid caps, we like CENT, CSE, MPM, SSG and VALUE.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+2)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Singapore Research Team

Market Strategy - Opportunities Abound Despite Muted Earnings Growth I...

Our modest below-consensus 1.2% EPS growth forecast for our covered STI stocks for 2025 belies the fact that there are a number of stocks within our universe that should deliver strong returns in the near to medium term, backed by sustainable dividend yields. We forecast a 2025 year-end target of 4,115 for the STI, implying 10% upside from current levels, with the index’s current valuation looking inexpensive at 2025F PE and P/B of 11.5x and 1.2x respectively.

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd: 1 director

A director at Singapore Telecommunications Ltd bought 20,000 shares at 3.010SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Q2 FY25 review: Renewed acceleration off tariff hike, F...

Indian mobile revenue growth accelerated to mid-teens on the back of the tariff hike in July, with EBITDA margin expansion across all three operators.

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+16)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Ming San Soong
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, November 14, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$403.80/Target: HK$570.00): 3Q24: Solid earnings beat; mini shop and potential blockbuster as key catalysts. INDONESIA Results Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp835/Target: Rp1,200): 3Q24: NPAT up 13.7% yoy; slightly above consensus expectations. MALAYSIA Results Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE MK/BUY/RM0.44/Target: RM0.70): 1H24: Positively surprises on project cost claims. Marine segment still weakened by competi...

Chong Lee Len ... (+2)
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan

Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP) - 1HFY25: Results In Line As Busi...

For 1HFY25, Singtel reported a higher underlying net profit of S$1.2b (+6.1% yoy), driven by higher contributions from Optus and NCS, coupled with better cost discipline from the group’s cost-out programme. The group has identified about S$6b of capital recycling which we reckon would likely come from paring down its stakes in its regional associates and non-core fixed assets. In view of a decent dividend yield of 5.2% and an improving outlook, we maintain BUY with the same target price of S$3.5...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Singtel (Buy, TP: S$4.6, +44%) Q2 FY25 Quick Take: Topline beat on Opt...

Singtel printed a strong set of underlying Q2 numbers as underlying revenue inflected to growth, EBIT up mid-teens again and importantly net profit accelerated.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Singtel (Buy, TP: S$4.6, +42%) Optus paid A$12m fine related to netwo...

Optus has paid A$12m (S$10.6m) to the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) in relation to an emergency call breach during last November's network outage.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

5G FWA in EM Hold on for a massive acceleration in FWA demand, Bharti...

When Jio announced it was targeting 100m 5G FWA customers we said this was likely to be game changing for the industry globally, and so it is proving.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indian Mobile Broadband upgraded as FWA takes off; Bharti price targe...

Jio’s recent FWA figures suggest India is entering an S-curve of adoption. We think this means Jio is set to capture the lion’s share of a $20bn revenue industry (by 2030). Bharti is likely to benefit strongly too.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EM Telcos Q2 24: Enterprise softer but remains a secular trend

Following our work on the structural growth of EM Enterprise revenues, we highlight Q2 enterprise numbers to see how the story is trending.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Indus Towers (Reduce, INR 280 from INR 265, -26%) Implications for I...

In this note we address the implications for Indus of creeping nationalisation at VIL, as explained in a separate note out today. Spoiler alert: they aren’t good.

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