reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Strategy: Japan Stock Market Quarterly for 2025 Q4
For almost three years the Nikkei 225 has been tracking its performance from the 2003~5 bull market, albeit at levels some 3.3x higher In this report, Pelham Smithers discusses the similarities and asks three key questions: (1) Can we continue to track 2005 through the rest of the year; (2) Whatever happens in Q4, should we fear or be hopeful for 2026? And (3) Who are the upcoming winners and losers.
4689 Z HOLDINGS CORPORATION
7751 CANON INC.
6952 CASIO COMPUTER CO. LTD.
4519 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
7762 CITIZEN WATCH CO LTD.
4751 CYBERAGENT INC.
4755 RAKUTEN INC.
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
5803 FUJIKURA LTD
4902 KONICA MINOLTA INC.
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
7752 RICOH COMPANY LTD.
6869 SYSMEX CORPORATION
5423 TOKYO STEEL MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
8729 SONY FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC.
7267 HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.
7202 ISUZU MOTORS LIMITED
9616 KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO. LTD.
6981 MURATA MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
7974 NINTENDO CO. LTD.
6701 NEC CORP.
6594 NIDEC CORPORATION
7731 NIKON CORP.
2371 KAKAKU.COM INC.
6963 ROHM CO. LTD.
6753 SHARP CORPORATION
6762 TDK CORPORATION
4502 TAKEDA PHARMACEUTICAL CO. LTD.
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
6976 TAIYO YUDEN CO. LTD.
4186 TOKYO OHKA KOGYO CO. LTD.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
7261 MAZDA MOTOR CORP.
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
3697 SHIFT
6857 JP ADVANEST
6460 JP SEGA SAMMY
4385 MERCARI INC.
36350 KOEI TECMO
45870 PEPTIDREAM INC
3491 JT GA TECHNOLOGIES
3630 JT DENSAN SYSTEM CO LTD (3630 JT)
4194 VISIONAL
4483 JMDC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
AST VISIONAL INC
5032 JT ASTREE CIE ASSURANCE & REASSURANCE
5253 JT ANYCOLOR INC
9616 JT COVER CORPORATION (5253 JT)
8473 JT KYORITSU MAINTENANCE (9616 JT)
215A SBI HOLDINGS [STRATEGIC BUSINESS INNOVATOR GROUP] (8473 JT)
285A JT TIMEE INC
KIOXIA CORPORATION (285A JT)
- Chris Hoare
- Lindsay Whipp
PSA IT Services: Japanese Banking Industry’s Investment in DX Deepens
The most recent quarterly earnings for the system integrators highlighted the sustained increase in spending by Japanese financial institutions over recent quarters, as they seek to improve products and services amid a shift in interest rates and the introduction of tax-exempt investment accounts, and as interest in digital currencies grows. Analyst Lindsay Whipp reviews some of the DX spending undertaken by Japan’s banking industry and highlights beneficiaries'.
4307 NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE LTD.
8306 MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
8316 SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
9432 NIPPON TELEGRAPH AND TELEPHONE CORPORATION
3774 INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN
7182 JAPAN POST BANK CO. LTD.
3994 MONEY FORWARD
3626 JT TIS INC
8473 JT NTT LTD
9682 JT SBI HOLDINGS [STRATEGIC BUSINESS INNOVATOR GROUP] (8473 JT)
DTS CORP (9682 JT)
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Continuing strong: NSR GEM Top-10 September...
August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q2 25 review: KT and LG U-Plus benefiting from SK...
SKT underperformed in Q2 due to April’s cyberattack. As SKT’s Customer Appreciation Package is expected to cost KRW500bn (US$360m) coupled with the associated churn, SKT is expected to take a heavier hit in the second half. The government’s AI campaign should be supportive for telcos’ Enterprise operations, and we expect to see stronger Enterprise revenues in H2 too. KT remains one of our Top Picks in GEM Telcos for its exposure to Enterprise and focus on cost and capex discipline.
LG Uplus: 1 director
A director at LG Uplus maiden bought 20,000 shares at 14,717.573KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
SK Telecom Co Ltd: 1 director
A director at SK Telecom Co Ltd sold 1,576 shares at 55,800.000KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
- Chris Hoare
Japanese Telcos – Q1 FY25 review: Steady start, all eyes on Mobile pri...
Revenue trends were steady as the softer mobile growth was offset by improvement in non-mobile. Softbank remained the outperformer, but this has already been baked in as expectations for Group revenue are sitting ahead of guidance by 3%.
- Chris Hoare
KT Corp (Buy, KRW 105,000, +94%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Service revenue in...
Profitability rose sharply on lower labour costs and was partly boosted by a real estate gain, well-flagged previously. Despite ongoing restructuring to shed lower-margin businesses, service revenue trend inflected, driven by B2B and Fixed Line. As expected, operational metrics accelerated in Q2 due to the situation at SKT.
- Chris Hoare
LG Uplus (Buy, KRW 19,000, +31%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Good acceleration
LG Uplus printed better numbers in Q2 as service revenue and earnings growth accelerated, putting it closer to its 6%-6.5% profit margin target by 2027. Importantly, capex spend continues to moderate which is supportive for cash flow and therefore shareholder remuneration. The company had instituted a KRW 80bn (USD50m) buyback back in July, ahead of our forecasts and translates to 5.7% shareholder remuneration yield on our estimates.
- Chris Hoare
NTT (Buy, TP: ¥215, +40%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Soft start; awaiting fo...
NTT printed a rather soft set of Q1 results as Mobile was weaker and Global Solutions was impacted by FX weakness in its Overseas arm. The recovery in Regional Communications offered some encouragement and is likely to remain so as the firm transits from Copper to Fibre over the long run.
- Chris Hoare
SK Telecom (Neutral, KRW 78,000, +39%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Heavier hit ...
Results were weak as expected because of the churn from April data breach. However, the worst is yet to come since Q3 will be impacted by the 50% discount on monthly tariff that will be applied in August. There is still no news on the fine which creates an overhang although news outlet suggests it could be disclosed as early as this month. For now, we maintain our Neutral stance.
- Chris Hoare
KDDI (Buy, ¥3,150, +24%) Q1 FY25 Quick Take: Modest start but managem...
Q1 results were a touch softer than expected as trends in Business moderated. Tone remains encouraging for mobile to further accelerate in the second half as the impact of new mobile plans and price increase begin to flow through. Guidance remains unchanged. We continue to see good upside surprise in Mobile and stay Buyers with a ¥3,150 price target.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another monster month: NSR GEM Top-10 Augus...
Our top picks performed very strongly again in July, marked by a strong recovery from VEON, Millicom and IHS Towers alongside continued momentum at Singtel and Airtel Africa. Heading into earnings season, we continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
SK Telecom (Neutral, KRW 78,000, +43%) Overall impact of data breach ...
It is now clear that as we thought, the market’s initial response to SKT’s data breach was too sanguine, as earlier today, South Korea's regulator ordered SKT to waive the termination fees following April's cyberattack, and thereafter, SKT agreed to the waiver and announced a Customer Appreciation package and therefore cut 2025 revenue guidance, and said that it now expects EBIT to decline this year too. In this note, we summarise our thoughts and assess the potential financial impact.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another decent month: NSR GEM Top-10 July ‘...
Our picks largely had a slightly slower month in June, with VEON seeing sharp profit taking, but a recovery in some of the weaker stocks such as LILAK offset to continue to see overall valuations rise. We continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain heavily undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
South Korean Telcos Q1 25 review: Peers expected to benefit near-term...
Margins are improving as operators execute on cost discipline and shift away from less profitable operations. As capex intensity falls, cash flow is rising and so therefore are dividends or buybacks; LG is expected to announce a buyback in 2H. Thus we are confident of further re-rating and our recent trip reinforced this view. Following the data breach at SKT, near term results are likely to favour KT and LG Uplus. KT remains our preferred pick and is one of our top picks in GEM Telcos.
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