reports
- James Ratzer
Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 265p, +47%) Was 240p Upside beyond the mythical £3bn FCF t...
BT’s target to reach £3bn FCF by the end of the decade has almost become mythical in status. Initially set back in 2021, is it the longest-standing piece of guidance (ever) in the telecoms sector? Quite possibly – and yet we are only half-way there.
- James Ratzer
The company started seeing signs of recovery as subscriber losses begu...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +56%) Was 135p Target price/ model update: T...
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.40, +46%) Dig a bit deeper and it is better than the headl...
Going into these results, we believe that two numbers were in focus – the Openreach line losses and the new FY26 guidance. In this note we dig into both of these in more detail and highlight why having TalkTalk as a major ISP on the Openreach network is causing them specific issues driving some of the higher line losses.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +82%) FY 2025: Trying to move the debate on from ...
The broad theme of Vodafone’s results remains the same as in past periods: Germany has been disappointing and has been the main focus of the market, but other parts of the business have been able to offset it, with increasing weight now on Vodacom for FY26.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.40, +45%) TNT Sports exit - what are the financial implica...
The FT has reported that BT could sell its 50% stake in TNT Sports to WBD – maybe this week alongside FY results on Thursday. We assess the potential financial implications of this as it might be positive vs. market perception but could be negative vs. our valuation.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) Vodafone CFO departing: Quick thoughts
Vodafone has announced that Luka Mucic will be stepping down as Vodafone CFO by year-end, after only taking on the role in September 2023. We run through some quick thoughts on this move here and set out our estimates ahead of results in 2 weeks time
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +93%) Vodacom upside undervalued
When talking about Vodafone with market participants, almost all of the discussion tends to be on Germany. However, this morning my colleague Chris has upgraded his estimates for Vodacom and we have increased our target from ZAR150 to ZAR180 – with the full details published here. We believe the positive benefits from Vodacom are being overlooked in the Vodafone share price and we re-visit that thesis in this note with an updated view on Vodafone.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €3.9, -3%) Q1 25: Better growth and beat vs consens...
KPN has reported a better set of results in terms of SR trends, with total SR now at +3% y/y in-line with mid-term guidance, but B2C SR remains well below +3% y/y, and we worry about the outlook here given the lack of front book price moves.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) India value extraction on the horizon?
Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.
- James Ratzer
UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.4...
Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +107%) Model update - German EBITDA could just gr...
Following Vodafone’s results earlier today, we now publish an updated model to reflect their comments. We reduce our price target from 150p to 135p (4.8x EBITDAaL), but still believe that Vodafone’s “ambition” to grow German EBITDA in FY26 could just be possible.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €4.0, +12%) Q4 24: B2C SR outlook is a concern – res...
KPN has reported a slightly weak set of numbers with SR -0.7% light and EBITDAaL -0.2% below consensus expectations. Guidance for 2025 EBITDAaL is in-line with medium-term ambitions but c0.5% below consensus that was ahead of those targets. Adjusting for the various M&A deals, B2C SR is weaker at +1.0% y/y from +2.7% y/y, with B2C mobile +0.3% y/y from +6.7% y/y and B2C fixed +1.3% y/y from +1.0% y/y. Given the slowdown here, and the slightly disappointing EBITDA guidance, we think Neutral remai...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Revealing the spectrum sale details from Vod-Three to O2 (potentially!...
The merger of Vodafone-Three is the biggest change in the UK wireless market in many years. But potentially the second biggest change is the size of the spectrum sale from Vod-Three to O2. This has the potential to shape competitive dynamics for years to come and we believe we have unearthed new details of the spectrum transfer to steer people in the right direction for a likely outcome.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.50, +78%) Morgan Stanley exit derivative position - what ...
Earlier today, there was an RNS disclosure showing that Morgan Stanley’s derivative position in BT had fallen to zero. As a result, we have had a few questions on whether this means that Mittal’s stake purchase in BT is now completed. In this brief note, we run through our thoughts on the implications of this
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.