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Ben Rickett ... (+3)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like

When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.4...

Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.5, +110% ) / LCPR HY Deep dive on Puerto Ric...

We focus on Puerto Rico (PR). Following our call with the CFO we now see monthly EBITDA rising to $34m by y/e 2025 (and $40m by y/e 2026), driven by bad debt and credits normalizing, and revenue growth as net adds inflect.

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Liberty Global, Ineos, Intrum, Recordati, Ineos Quattro, TUI, David Lloyd Leisure, Aston Martin, Lowell

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Haidje Rustau
  • Haidje Rustau

Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytic...

Liberty Global’s Q4/24 results were disappointing overall, with weak top-line and margin trends. Subscriber development was not as strong as we had forecast, though we note positively the improved outlook for the UK.

Haidje Rustau ... (+6)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, The Very Group, Liberty Global, Tereos, Ontex, Recordati, TI Fluid Systems, THOM Europe, Borr Drilling, Klockner Pentaplast, Casino Guichard-Perrachon

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Odigeo, TGS ASA, Constellium, United Group, Liberty Global, Klockner Pentaplast, evoke (formerly 888 Holdings), Azelis, Recordati, Vedanta Resources

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global (Neutral, $16, +42%) Q4 24 - A tough FCF outlook for 20...

Liberty Global faces a challenging time ahead with the continual trade-off of financial engineering vs. underlying fundamentals – and we think the latter will always win in the end.

Haidje Rustau ... (+5)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nexans, TK Elevator, Liberty Global, Ontex, Allwyn (formerly Sazka), Merlin Entertainments, Borr Drilling, Neopharmed

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT (BUY): Q3 25 - Our Take and model update post Openreach KPIs

The reaction to BT’s trading statement is dominated by one number: 208k line losses at Openreach. Therefore, in this note, we update our model to reflect this and run through our take on what is going on.

Felix Fischer
  • Felix Fischer

European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics

In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...

Felix Fischer ... (+8)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Ian Wong
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Air Baltic, TAP, Liberty Global, United Group, Techem, THOM Europe, Flora Food Group (formerly Upfield), Softbank Group, Aggreko, Ineos, Premier Foods, Elior

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT (Buy, £2.50, +78%) Morgan Stanley exit derivative position - what ...

Earlier today, there was an RNS disclosure showing that Morgan Stanley’s derivative position in BT had fallen to zero. As a result, we have had a few questions on whether this means that Mittal’s stake purchase in BT is now completed. In this brief note, we run through our thoughts on the implications of this

Ben Rickett ... (+3)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...

2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.

Felix Fischer
  • Felix Fischer

Europe HY Trade Book - December 2024 - Lucror Analytics

The Europe HY Trade Book for December 2024 includes current trade recommendations drawn from our European HY coverage universe, along with relative-value scatter plots and tables by industry.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT (Buy, 220p, +53%) The press is not right – Mittal has not “complet...

BT has disclosed that Mittal now has a 24.5% voting interest in BT. Therefore, the press is reporting that Mittal has now completed the stake purchase.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Liberty Global (Neutral, $14, +14%) Post-Sunrise spin review: New tar...

The Sunrise spin has now been completed. In our Q3 results note, we set out our preliminary views on how Liberty post-Sunrise spin could look.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT Group (Buy, 220p, +64%) Was 225p Q2 25: Is the share price decline...

BT’s stock is trading off 6% at the time of publication on a quarter where EBITDA beat consensus and all profitability guidance has been maintained. In fact, given the future guidance now also includes an incremental £100m impact from last week’s Budget, the guidance is actually an upgrade.

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