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James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?

Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...

Haidje Rustau ... (+3)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Altice France (SFR), Liberty Global, Virgin Media O2, Tata Motors, Sammontana Italia

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Why are governments allowing mobile price hikes?

We note EM Governments & regulators appear to have become much more relaxed about mobile ARPU growing above inflation relative to the recent past. Why is this? This note gives one possible explanation.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...

After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...

CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.

Ben Rickett ... (+2)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer

UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...

We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Why are governments allowing mobile price hikes?

We note EM Governments & regulators appear to have become much more relaxed about mobile ARPU growing above inflation relative to the recent past. Why is this? This note gives one possible explanation.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

TalkTalk (1st lien: From Overweight to Neutral) Update on new initiat...

In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT (Buy, £2.65, +33%) What the Mittal board seats mean for future shar...

BT has announced that Bharti Global’s economic stake in the company now exceeds 20%, and that Bharti Global will therefore be taking two new Board seats.

James Ratzer ... (+2)
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator

We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.

Moody's Ratings assigns Baa3 rating to Vodafone's new hybrid notes due...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today assigned a Baa3 rating to the two EUR-denominated hybrid securities both with maturity in 2055 to be issued by Vodafone Group Plc (Vodafone or the company). The outlook is unchanged at stable. RATINGS RATIONALE The Baa3 rating assigned to the new hybrids is on...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Continuing strong: NSR GEM Top-10 September...

August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

GEM/Japan Telcos Starlink – What impact might it have in Global EM, J...

Following on from the recent report by our European colleagues on the potential impact Starlink is likely to have on broadband in Europe, we look at markets outside of Europe: EM, Japan, Singapore and Australia.

Vodafone Group: 1 director

A director at Vodafone Group sold after exercising options/sold 871,500 shares at 87p and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

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