reports
- James Ratzer
BT (Neutral, £2.40, +18%) Q3 26 – Line loss analysis – what is drivin...
BT’s Q3 results surprised us. Line loss guidance for the year was improved and despite a competitive consumer market, BT held consumer volumes flat with minimal ARPU erosion. In this note, we analyse both of these trends and in particular look at a bottom-up analysis of broadband KPI trends across the UK market.
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Equal Weight) Post-Q3 model update: The customer growth vs....
Following the Q3 results yesterday, we have updated our forecasts to reflect weaker-than-expected subscriber trends in the quarter. While FY26 revenue guidance remains intact, the deterioration in customer volumes leads us to reduce our medium-term subscriber assumptions and, in turn, our longer-term revenue expectations. We assess the impact this has on value and the potential for higher future SAC spending.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Peter Low
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Equal Weight) Q3: Financial guidance intact, but customer v...
TalkTalk has reported Q3 results (ending Nov 2025) and will host an analyst call later this morning. Aside from the recent M&A speculation, the company’s operational performance remains challenged with subscriber trends weaker in the quarter, despite new advertising campaigns around the rebrand
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Si Yong Ng
- Trung Nguyen
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Equal weight) Up for sale again! Our take
Sky News is reporting that TalkTalk has begun contacting potential acquirers for its consumer (TTC) and wholesale (PXC) divisions. We also believe that this could also involve a sale of the whole business. We explore our latest thoughts on next steps.
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre 2025 results Rational support for the whole market
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
- James Ratzer
BT (Neutral, 220p, +19%) H1 26: Let’s focus on Starlink & Openreach
Financial and KPI results were broadly in line with expectations and all financial guidance has been reiterated. Therefore, in this note we focus more on two specific angles – 1) How to digest the Openreach line losses and why FY26 might not be “peak line losses” and 2) What to make of the new Starlink deal announced, which we think could have interesting longer-term implications.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Neutral) H1 review – New outlook, new model
TalkTalk’s H1 results show that customer momentum remains a challenge for them given the price competitive nature of the UK market which allow customers to switch with more ease than in the past. Working capital outflow has also been higher than expected.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre up, Openreach down Better visibility on Sky deal drives CF...
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- James Ratzer
UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?
Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Tanvi Arora
- Filipe Botelho
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Trung Nguyen
- James Ratzer
CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...
CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.
- Haidje Rustau
- Peter Low
- Trung Nguyen
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...
We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.