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James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...

CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.

Haidje Rustau ... (+3)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Peter Low
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Infopro Digital, TalkTalk, Stada, VodafoneZiggo, Vedanta Resources

Ben Rickett ... (+2)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer

UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...

We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fedrigoni, Standard Profil, United Group, Altice International, NewDay, TalkTalk, EVOCA, Ineos, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Ineos Quattro, TUI

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

TalkTalk (1st lien: From Overweight to Neutral) Update on new initiat...

In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT (Buy, £2.65, +33%) What the Mittal board seats mean for future shar...

BT has announced that Bharti Global’s economic stake in the company now exceeds 20%, and that Bharti Global will therefore be taking two new Board seats.

James Ratzer ... (+2)
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator

We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.

Felix Fischer ... (+4)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Si Yong Ng

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: e& PPF Telecom, TalkTalk, VodafoneZiggo, Bombardier, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Ineos, Ineos Quattro

Felix Fischer ... (+6)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Modulaire, evoke, Novelis, TalkTalk, Zegona, NewDay, Flora Food Group, Borr Drilling, Solenis, TUI, Air Baltic

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sappi, Multiversity, TalkTalk, Tullow Oil, Softbank Group, Novelis

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Filipe Botelho
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Altice France (SFR), Zegona, Urbaser, Telecom Italia, TalkTalk, Nemak, Tata Motors, Tereos, Grupo Antolin, Rexel, Iceland Foods

Felix Fischer ... (+7)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Si Yong Ng
  • Tanvi Arora
  • Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, Applus, Altice France (SFR), Casino Guichard-Perrachon, International Personal Finance, TeamSystem, Aston Martin, Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global, TalkTalk, Recordati, Tata Motors, Nexans, Italmatch Chemicals, Itelyum Group, Teva

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

TalkTalk (1st Lien - Overweight) New capital injection a mixed blessi...

TalkTalk has announced a new funding arrangement of up to £100m of extra liquidity. They have also provided new guidance and we run though our take on the new funding and the new guidance. We then provide an update to our forecasts and what this might mean for M&A possibilities

Felix Fischer ... (+5)
  • Felix Fischer
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Intrum, MasOrange, Victoria, TalkTalk, House of HR, Vallourec, Recordati, Ahlstrom, Ineos Quattro

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +40%) Q1 26: Clearer evidence of value over volu...

Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

BT Group (Buy, £2.65, +26%) Q1 26: The line loss debate continues (in ...

BT’s Q1 results were broadly in line with expectations financially, but the eye-grabbing number is the lower Openreach line losses compared to prior quarters.

Ben Rickett ... (+3)
  • Ben Rickett
  • James Ratzer
  • Russell Waller

EU Telecoms: Half-time 2025 Review Sector has outperformed: More sele...

The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

TalkTalk (Overweight 1st lien) Deeper dive on customer trends and est...

There is a lot of focus (quite rightly) on TalkTalk’s customer trends as a longer-term indicator of their growth trajectory but the initial Q1 results suggested a wide range of outcomes.However, we now have more detail on this from the company and in this note, we take a deeper dive into the precise customer trends and provide an updated set of forecasts. For BT, we then also assess the potential impact that this might be having on Openreach.

Haidje Rustau ... (+4)
  • Haidje Rustau
  • Jayanth Kandalam
  • Peter Low
  • Tanvi Arora

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: TalkTalk, Zegona, Ontex, EnQuest Plc, Froneri, Loxam

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