CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.
We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.
In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.
We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, Applus, Altice France (SFR), Casino Guichard-Perrachon, International Personal Finance, TeamSystem, Aston Martin, Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global, TalkTalk, Recordati, Tata Motors, Nexans, Italmatch Chemicals, Itelyum Group, Teva
TalkTalk has announced a new funding arrangement of up to £100m of extra liquidity. They have also provided new guidance and we run though our take on the new funding and the new guidance. We then provide an update to our forecasts and what this might mean for M&A possibilities
Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.
The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.
There is a lot of focus (quite rightly) on TalkTalk’s customer trends as a longer-term indicator of their growth trajectory but the initial Q1 results suggested a wide range of outcomes.However, we now have more detail on this from the company and in this note, we take a deeper dive into the precise customer trends and provide an updated set of forecasts. For BT, we then also assess the potential impact that this might be having on Openreach.
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