reports
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT (Neutral, 220p, +19%) H1 26: Let’s focus on Starlink & Openreach
Financial and KPI results were broadly in line with expectations and all financial guidance has been reiterated. Therefore, in this note we focus more on two specific angles – 1) How to digest the Openreach line losses and why FY26 might not be “peak line losses” and 2) What to make of the new Starlink deal announced, which we think could have interesting longer-term implications.
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Neutral) H1 review – New outlook, new model
TalkTalk’s H1 results show that customer momentum remains a challenge for them given the price competitive nature of the UK market which allow customers to switch with more ease than in the past. Working capital outflow has also been higher than expected.
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre up, Openreach down Better visibility on Sky deal drives CF...
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
- Haidje Rustau
Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytic...
Liberty Global has reported weak Q3/25 results, with revenues for consolidated entities up 1.0% in reported terms to USD 1.21 bn, and adjusted EBITDA declining 5.7% in rebased terms to USD 337 mn. We are particularly concerned about the continued reduction in the subscriber base. In our opinion, market conditions remain very difficult in many of the group's markets, and we expect little improvement in the conditions until the altnet consolidation starts in earnest.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Intrum, Liberty Global, Iliad, International Personal Finance, Nissan Motor, Borr Drilling, Seche Environnement, Adler Pelzer, Ontex, Nomad Foods (Iglo), Paragon, Boparan, Ineos Quattro
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $11.5, +2%) Was $10.5 There are better op...
Liberty Global’s Q3 results contained no new strategic announcements – and this suggests none might be forthcoming next Tuesday at Telefonica’s CMD either with regard to VMO2, which we think is concerning for the credit outlook at that business.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Peter Low
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
- Felix Fischer
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Trung Nguyen
- James Ratzer
UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?
Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...
- Haidje Rustau
- Si Yong Ng
- Trung Nguyen
- James Ratzer
CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...
CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...
We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (1st lien: From Overweight to Neutral) Update on new initiat...
In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.
- James Ratzer
- Haidje Rustau
Liberty Global - Earnings Flash - Q2 FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytic...
Liberty Global (LG) has released its Q2/25 numbers. Revenues for consolidated entities amounted to USD 1.17 bn, with a 20.0% y-o-y rebased increase. Adjusted EBITDA rose 5.8% in rebased terms to USD 335 mn, supported by improvements at LG and Telenet. Subscriber trends remained weak overall. Reported total debt grew to USD 9.9 bn, and the cash balance dropped to USD 1.8 bn. Reported net senior leverage stood at 3.8x, and total net leverage at 4.2x.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: SIG plc, Playtech, Flos B&B Italia, Liberty Global, Almaviva, Engineering Group, Trivium, Tata Motors, Nissan Motor, Froneri, Modulaire, Clarios, Itelyum Group, Italmatch Chemicals, Synthomer
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
- Trung Nguyen
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, Applus, Altice France (SFR), Casino Guichard-Perrachon, International Personal Finance, TeamSystem, Aston Martin, Virgin Media O2, Liberty Global, TalkTalk, Recordati, Tata Motors, Nexans, Italmatch Chemicals, Itelyum Group, Teva
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
NEX NEXANS SA
IPF INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
TALK TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP PLC
TATAMOTORS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
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