reports
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (1st Lien - Overweight) New capital injection a mixed blessi...
TalkTalk has announced a new funding arrangement of up to £100m of extra liquidity. They have also provided new guidance and we run though our take on the new funding and the new guidance. We then provide an update to our forecasts and what this might mean for M&A possibilities
- James Ratzer
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time 2025 Review Sector has outperformed: More sele...
The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Overweight 1st lien) Deeper dive on customer trends and est...
There is a lot of focus (quite rightly) on TalkTalk’s customer trends as a longer-term indicator of their growth trajectory but the initial Q1 results suggested a wide range of outcomes.However, we now have more detail on this from the company and in this note, we take a deeper dive into the precise customer trends and provide an updated set of forecasts. For BT, we then also assess the potential impact that this might be having on Openreach.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 265p, +47%) Was 240p Upside beyond the mythical £3bn FCF t...
BT’s target to reach £3bn FCF by the end of the decade has almost become mythical in status. Initially set back in 2021, is it the longest-standing piece of guidance (ever) in the telecoms sector? Quite possibly – and yet we are only half-way there.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.40, +46%) Dig a bit deeper and it is better than the headl...
Going into these results, we believe that two numbers were in focus – the Openreach line losses and the new FY26 guidance. In this note we dig into both of these in more detail and highlight why having TalkTalk as a major ISP on the Openreach network is causing them specific issues driving some of the higher line losses.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.40, +45%) TNT Sports exit - what are the financial implica...
The FT has reported that BT could sell its 50% stake in TNT Sports to WBD – maybe this week alongside FY results on Thursday. We assess the potential financial implications of this as it might be positive vs. market perception but could be negative vs. our valuation.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- James Ratzer
UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.4...
Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.50, +78%) Morgan Stanley exit derivative position - what ...
Earlier today, there was an RNS disclosure showing that Morgan Stanley’s derivative position in BT had fallen to zero. As a result, we have had a few questions on whether this means that Mittal’s stake purchase in BT is now completed. In this brief note, we run through our thoughts on the implications of this
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
Liberty Global Ltd: 1 director
A director at Liberty Global Ltd sold 20,230 shares at 13.651USD and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT Group (Buy, 220p, +64%) Was 225p Q2 25: Is the share price decline...
BT’s stock is trading off 6% at the time of publication on a quarter where EBITDA beat consensus and all profitability guidance has been maintained. In fact, given the future guidance now also includes an incremental £100m impact from last week’s Budget, the guidance is actually an upgrade.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
- James Ratzer
UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget
Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
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