reports
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
- James Ratzer
UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.4...
Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.50, +78%) Morgan Stanley exit derivative position - what ...
Earlier today, there was an RNS disclosure showing that Morgan Stanley’s derivative position in BT had fallen to zero. As a result, we have had a few questions on whether this means that Mittal’s stake purchase in BT is now completed. In this brief note, we run through our thoughts on the implications of this
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
Liberty Global Ltd: 1 director
A director at Liberty Global Ltd sold 20,230 shares at 13.651USD and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
BT Group (Buy, 220p, +64%) Was 225p Q2 25: Is the share price decline...
BT’s stock is trading off 6% at the time of publication on a quarter where EBITDA beat consensus and all profitability guidance has been maintained. In fact, given the future guidance now also includes an incremental £100m impact from last week’s Budget, the guidance is actually an upgrade.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +8%) Record low service revenue trends a...
This is meant to be the quarter when the upcoming Sunrise spin should be attracting most attention and helping to crystallise value. However, we can't help but be distracted by a sharp deterioration in underlying service revenue trends as the impact of lapping lower inflation price rises and a sustained KPI loss is starting to catch up with Liberty Global.
- James Ratzer
UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget
Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $23, +16%) Sunrise CMD feedback and Liberty ...
The Sunrise CMD has just wrapped up – with the official spin-off from Liberty Global coming later this year. We provide our initial thoughts here on the new guidance, the valuation impact and the longer-term potential questions as the industry migrates towards higher-speed infrastructure
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre/ Sky/ BT: Our take A deal we have been expecting for some t...
Cityfibre has announced a new wholesale agreement with Sky this morning – a headline we have been waiting for over the past 3 years. Therefore, we think both our BT and Cityfibre models are well prepared for this. In this note, we run through the potential impact from the deal and its details. We then look at what next steps we should be expecting from here. (Our Cityfibre model is also available on request for those interested).
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, 225p, +60%) Bharti deal will trigger more buying in the mark...
Given our recent note on Drahi switching the way he owns his BT shares, the Bharti Global announcement to buy his 24.5% stake is very timely. In this note, we run through the mechanics of how we think this will work, and what this might mean.
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.30, +63%) Drahi's position: Revealing what is going on
Ever since Drahi’s surprised people by buying a 12% stake in BT back in 2021 and scaled up to 24.5% by 2023, there has been much discussion about how Drahi owns his stake and how it might be financed. This has material implications for any potential overhang on BT’s position, and our new analysis of his structuring leads us to believe that any overhang is much lower than the market might fear.
- James Ratzer
Liberty Global (Neutral, $24, +24%) Q2 24: Deeper dive on VMO2 result...
As Liberty Global continues its transitional journey, we see two key areas of focus from the recent announcements, where we dig deeper in this note - the newly announced Belgian FTTH network sharing arrangement, and the VMO2 results & outlook.
- James Ratzer
BT Group (Buy, £2.30, +68%) 1Q25: Where are the broadband subscribers...
BT reported reasonable Q1 financial results this morning, but investor focus will be on a further deterioration in broadband line losses to -196k (-122k in Q4). In this note, we take a look at where these broadband losses might be going and implications for the broader UK broadband market. This is therefore also relevant for all credit investors currently looking at TalkTalk.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...
European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
BT (Buy, £2.35, +68%) Was £1.95 Revisiting the Openreach story: Ta...
Given the moving dynamics in the UK broadband market, we revisit all our bottom up assumptions for Openreach coming away more positive on the longer-term upside in the asset, despite some near-term headwinds from line losses. This remains a conviction Buy for us and we run through all our key assumptions and views in this note, and also the potential impact for VMO2.
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