reports
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre 2025 results Rational support for the whole market
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
Moody's Ratings assigns Baa1 ratings to T-Mobile's proposed backed sen...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned Baa1 ratings to T-Mobile USA, Inc.'s (T-Mobile) proposed backed senior unsecured notes, which will be comprised of various maturities. T-Mobile intends to use the net proceeds from the proposed offering for general corporate purposes, which may include refinancing ...
- David Barden
- James Ratzer
European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
T-Mobile US Inc: 1 director
Two Directors at T-Mobile US Inc sold 1,495 shares at between 0.000USD and 210.320USD. The significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +30%) H1 26 - Multiple re-rating in play
Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.
- James Ratzer
BT (Neutral, 220p, +19%) H1 26: Let’s focus on Starlink & Openreach
Financial and KPI results were broadly in line with expectations and all financial guidance has been reiterated. Therefore, in this note we focus more on two specific angles – 1) How to digest the Openreach line losses and why FY26 might not be “peak line losses” and 2) What to make of the new Starlink deal announced, which we think could have interesting longer-term implications.
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (Neutral) H1 review – New outlook, new model
TalkTalk’s H1 results show that customer momentum remains a challenge for them given the price competitive nature of the UK market which allow customers to switch with more ease than in the past. Working capital outflow has also been higher than expected.
- James Ratzer
Cityfibre up, Openreach down Better visibility on Sky deal drives CF...
XLast month, Cityfibre reported a sharp acceleration in its net add run rate due to its new deal with Sky – and a clear indication that Sky now intends to put all of its new FTTP customers in Cityfibre’s footprint on the Cityfibre network.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T/T-Mobile US, AT&T show...
Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T all showed solid numbers over 3Q25. Despite strong competition, all three mobile telecom operators were able to grow revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, we believe T-Mobile US might benefit from a credit rating upgrade at S&P, while we could see debt increase a bit at Verizon and AT&T because of debt-funded acquisitions. In our view, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US look the most attractive in this credit sub-space.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- James Ratzer
UK consolidation Should VMO2 consider shutting down its HFC network?
Two of the most common questions we get asked at the moment are: 1) How will the UK broadband market consolidate?, and 2) What can VMO2 do to turn around their performance? We believe an interesting answer to both of these questions could be for VMO2 to consider shutting down their HFC network and moving to wholebuy Openreach’s FTTH network. This could be both value accretive for VMO2 and BT – and allow for a more rational UK market structure. In this thought-piece, we explore further how this...
Moody's Ratings assigns Baa1 ratings to T-Mobile's proposed backed sen...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) assigned Baa1 ratings to T-Mobile USA, Inc.'s (T-Mobile) proposed backed senior unsecured notes, which will be comprised of various maturities. T-Mobile intends to use the net proceeds from the proposed offering for refinancing existing indebtedness and general corporate pu...
- James Ratzer
CityFibre Q3: Significant customer acceleration with Sky launch & BT ...
CityFibre has just released a Q3 trading update which highlights the acceleration in customer volumes that they are seeing with Sky – and this is likely to put incremental pressure on BT, especially if momentum accelerates further in Q4 which we think could be likely.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
UK Fixed Market Review: Fewer lines to go round BT back to Neutral. D...
We now think the UK physical broadband line market is shrinking for the first time due to the impact of high penetration, FWA, satellite, mobile tethering and low economic growth. It is difficult to see this structural trend changing in the foreseeable future and we therefore adjust our view of UK fixed market growth – cutting our 2030 forecast for UK wireline broadband lines by 10%.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- James Ratzer
TalkTalk (1st lien: From Overweight to Neutral) Update on new initiat...
In early June, we upgraded the TalkTalk 1st lien debt to Buy – and it has since rallied from 45 to 75. We have also now seen a good degree of the Consumer changes that TalkTalk highlighted were coming earlier this year and based on what we have seen, we see no reason to change our existing forecasts. In this note, we therefore run through the new initiatives, the valuation and hence, the driver of our decision to move the 1st lien bonds back to Neutral.
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