Grasping the AI Infra Buildout & GTC takeaways

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (XI): Can cloud revenues triple in 4 ye...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look at how rising AI infrastructure capex translates into sustained cloud revenues growth, and who will consume how much cloud services by the end of the decade.

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (X): “Internal AI” returns? lower than ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at what returns hyperscalers generate on AI investments today and how these could improve over time once the "tail effect" kicks in.

Grasping the AI infra buildout (IX): How does the “tail effect” boost ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at how the "tail effect" boosts ROIC for AI infrastructure and traditional compute deployments.

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (VIII): “Tail effect” materially boost ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at what we call the tail effect: How ROIC underestimates the actual return on AI infrastructure over the full useful life of chips.

Grasping the AI infra buildout (VII): What returns to expect?

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we compare the returns of AI cloud and frontier-model businesses with those of traditional cloud and core hyperscalers.

Following the money: TSMC capex points to XPU revenues well above expe...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look into the implications of TSMC capex for XPU spending over the next few years.

The Citrini report: a revival of Marxism.

The Citrini report is an interesting thought experiment. It qualifies fully as neo-marxist, calling for the tendency of profit rates to fall. Like Marx 165 years ago, the authors are nevertheless getting a couple of things wrong. Click the link below for our thoughts and our perspective on the matter.

Anticipating the memory supply-demand balance of 2026, on a single sli...

In our Micron initiation in 2022, we introduced a unique framework to track memory supply and demand, based on COGS and PPE. In today’s one-slider, we update our view on memory supply-demand balance for 2026.

AI in 2027; Intel’s turnaround; TSMC in 2026; Mobileye; Ericsson. Tech...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 4 names we over the last two weeks, follow the link below.

Reconciling TSMC guide with total AI Infra. Spending in 2030, on a sin...

TSMC raised its AI revenue growth outlook last week to mid-to-high 50% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. Click on the link for a reconciliation with our forecast for total AI Infrastructure Spending.

​​​​​​​TSMC 4Q25: Strong implied 2027 guide for AI Infra.; WFE read-ac...

TSMC 4Q25 QT: Strong implied 2027 guide for AI Infra.; WFE read-across...

TSMC reported 4Q25 this morning.

Technology infrastructure in 2026: Top picks & updated perspective - C...

TSMC: What to expect from 2026 guidance?

TSMC will provide its initial 2026 revenue guidance on the 4Q25 earnings call on Thursday.

TSMC: 4Q revenues beat. Top Pick for 2026.

TSMC reported 4Q25 Revenues.

AI infrastructure in 2026: Updated perspective & top picks

As usual, to start the year, we have pulled together our favorite ideas in our coverage for 2026. We have selected names with our highest conviction.

Bible 3Q25 – Foundries: Strong set-up for TSMC into 2026. Downside ris...

Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC increased its 2025 growth outlook to 35%, as we anticipated. For other foundries, expectations were revised down 1pt to 9% growth in 2025, which implies a reasonable 2% sequential growth in 4Q. For ne...

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q25

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 242 pages of detailed analysis on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:

Gen AI Big Idea Series – The Broadcom Platform – ​Hock Tan, CEO

We hosted another session of the 5th annual BCG × NSR Gen-AI Big Idea Series this week. We will host a slate of exceptional speakers through Feb-26 (full line-up here). This session was a conversation with Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom, along with Kirsten Spears, CFO, and Charlie Kawwas, President of the Semiconductor Solutions Group. Please see the link below for our takes.