Bible 3Q24 – Foundries: TSMC outperforming on all fronts

Today, we are publishing the final section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible on Foundries. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC is outperforming peers on both revenue growth and gross margin trajectory. We expect this trend to continue next year, supported by several company-specific tailwinds: Intel increasing out...

Taiwan Monthly Sales Recap: November Sales +12% YoY (+4% Ex AI)

Taiwan monthly sales in November 2024 were up 12% YoY, driven by Semis, Thermal and ODM’s. Excluding AI, sales up +4% YoY.

Smartphones & PCs in 2025 – a health check in 10 slides.

Now that the bulk of the earnings season is behind us, we review how demand is shaping up for smartphones & PCs in 2025, and implications for semiconductors, in 5 slides each.

Bible 3Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: AI spending spree, CPU servers about ...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry. Hyperscale revenues grew 13% YoY, with cloud serv...

Gen AI Big Idea Series - Chipletz CEO Bryan Black - Smart Substrate & ...

We hosted the fourth session of our Gen AI Big Idea series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Bryan Black, CEO of Chipletz. We delved into the journey to panel-level chips, their applications, and the emerging ecosystem supporting them.

Taiwan Monthly Sales Recap: October 2024: Sales +14% YoY (AI +21%, ex ...

Semicap in 2025: All the headwinds the Street ignores

Wall Street is ignoring a number of headwinds blowing over WFE spending in 2025: Intel and Samsung giving up on their ambitious plans, China normalizing, lack of a recovery in trailing-edge logic, and only a measured recovery in memory spending. On balance, we expect WFE spending to increase by 3% next year, 9% below consensus expectations of 13% growth, resulting in 5-7% downside on revenues and 6-12% on earnings for the top 5 equipment vendors.

Hyperscalers report this week – read across for Nvidia and AI Infrastr...

Capex expectations for hyperscalers run vastly behind expectations for Nvidia. Investors are anticipating very positive comments and continued revisions this week.

ASML crash, TSMC beat and raise, Wolfspeed lifeline, and more. Tech We...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week.

TSMC 3Q24: raising FY24 guide as GM approaches 60%. Top pick into 2025...

TSMC 3Q24: raising FY24 guide as GM approaches 60%. Top pick into 2025...

TSMC reported its 3Q24 results this morning.

Semicap sector update: 2025 rebound excessively anticipated. We stay ...

WFE spending will grow 5% this year, with Chinese spending hiding a full cyclical downcycle in the rest of the world. Consensus forecasts 2025 in line with the 4Q24 run-rate and up nearly 20% vs. 2024; we see downside risk and expect 2025 growth, but only in the low-teens. Beyond 2025, visibility is still low. Multiples have compressed in absolute terms and relative to semis, but with likely negative revisions in revenue and earnings in 2025 there could be further downside. We see no reason to...

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q24

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 224 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Taiwan Monthly Sales Recap: August 2024: Sales + 22% YoY

Today we are publishing the first edition of our Monthly Taiwan sales recap. This is a part of our new product offering here at New Street Research: "Asia Tech: Navigating The Noise." Taiwan monthly sales in August 2024 were up 22% YoY, driven by names exposed to AI/CoWoS. Names related to PC (ex GPU), Autos, Smartphones, and OSATs remain weak.

Sovereign AI: Show me the money!

Sovereign AI is widely seen as a potential hidden upside to AI infrastructure in the next few years. In our research today, we gather all the information we could find on the topic and provide a view of how governments, weary of developing AI infrastructure on their territories, contribute to growth.

TSMC: 3Q trending in line but room to beat next year

TSMC reported its August revenues this morning.

TSMC in 2025 (II): We also expect a beat on margins Buy, NT$ 1,375

Two weeks ago, we published a deep dive on TSMC’s revenue growth outlook for 2025. We see material upside: while consensus expects ~24% growth, we expect nearly 30%, without relying on beats in datacenter AI. Today, we publish a second instalment focused on TSMC’s margin profile. We expect a beat on gross margins next year, primarily driven by higher utilization and an easing of the headwind related to the ramp of N3, partially offset by the ramp of foreign fabs and N2. Overall, we expect gross...

Bible 2Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: capex up further; AI decelerates heal...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 24th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Ride sharing & Delivery. Cloud revenues decelerated, with cloud services accelerating slightly, and Search, Ads...

TSMC in 2025: the #1 growth driver won’t be AI! Buy, NT$ 1,300.

In 2025, consensus expects ~24% revenue growth for TSMC. We expect nearly 30%. Wall Street is likely overlooking TSMC’s #1 growth driver for next year: share gains in CPUs. With Intel increasing outsourcing to TSMC, AMD gaining share from Intel, and Arm gaining share from x86, we estimate TSMC’s CPU revenues will increase by $6.8 billion in 2025, exceeding the growth driven by datacenter AI or smartphones. TSMC is one of our top picks, and this idea has the advantage of not relying on continued ...

Memory: Rigorous supply/demand discipline driving rapid gross margin r...

Memory COGS (demand) in 2025 will exceed 2022 by >50% while capex will likely only be 20% above. We summarise our thoughts and the implications for the industry in a single slide.