Bible 4Q24 – Foundries: $80bn in AI revenues in 2029

Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC guided for mid-20% revenue growth this year, with AI revenues set to double, implying mid-teens growth for non-AI. We see upside: Intel outsourcing and further N3 adoption in smartphones could push o...

TSMC heading towards 20% of leading-edge capacity in the US? Implicati...

TSMC's Chairman and CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, and President Trump announced yesterday that TSMC is expanding its U.S. investment by $100bn, in addition to its ongoing $65bn investment in Arizona.

Intel: Breaking up the dream?

We have seen a number of press outlets in recent days reporting or speculating about initiatives to break-up Intel, that echoed well the direction of travel we anticipated when Pat Gelsinger announced his resignation. See the link below for our assessment of what could happen next and implications for Intel, Broadcom and TSMC.

TSMC to grow AI revenues 45% p.a. to 2029. Implications?

TSMC revealed last week they expect $80bn of AI compute revenues in 2029, up from $12bn in 2024. This represents 45% p.a. growth over 5 years. In this note we put this into perspective, integrating the guidance with all the moving parts of the ramp of AI infrastructure: mix shift between GPU and ASICs, gross margin compression, change in content mix between HBM, logic and packaging, etc. This leverages the expertise we have developed on all these fronts over the last couple of years, and allows...

TSMC: buoyant outlook with room for upside. Top pick for 2025. Buy, NT...

TSMC reported 4Q24 this morning. Please click on the link below for our take on the print.

Semi cycle update 4Q24: Recovery weaker but still on for 2025

In today’s note we provide an updated view on the semiconductor cycle and give our views on how investors should be positioned in 2025.

TSMC: buoyant outlook with room for upside. Top pick for 2025. Buy, NT...

TSMC reported 4Q24 this morning.

Our top 4 picks for 2025 (+ 4 other ideas to consider)!

As usual, to start the year, we have pulled together our favorite ideas in our coverage for 2025. We have selected 4 names with our highest conviction, and we suggest 4 additional names for consideration that are more contrarian and riskier.

OpenAI: o3 is a game changer - a few steps away from AG. After the $1b...

o3, only a few steps away from AGI, is a game changer for AI adoption, monetization, and infrastructure. After the $1bn-to-train model, here is the $1m-inference model.

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q24

We publish today our comprehensive Quarterly Bible: 238 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Bible 3Q24 – Foundries: TSMC outperforming on all fronts

Today, we are publishing the final section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible on Foundries. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC is outperforming peers on both revenue growth and gross margin trajectory. We expect this trend to continue next year, supported by several company-specific tailwinds: Intel increasing out...

Taiwan Monthly Sales Recap: November Sales +12% YoY (+4% Ex AI)

Taiwan monthly sales in November 2024 were up 12% YoY, driven by Semis, Thermal and ODM’s. Excluding AI, sales up +4% YoY.

Smartphones & PCs in 2025 – a health check in 10 slides.

Now that the bulk of the earnings season is behind us, we review how demand is shaping up for smartphones & PCs in 2025, and implications for semiconductors, in 5 slides each.

Bible 3Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: AI spending spree, CPU servers about ...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry. Hyperscale revenues grew 13% YoY, with cloud serv...

Gen AI Big Idea Series - Chipletz CEO Bryan Black - Smart Substrate & ...

We hosted the fourth session of our Gen AI Big Idea series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Bryan Black, CEO of Chipletz. We delved into the journey to panel-level chips, their applications, and the emerging ecosystem supporting them.

Taiwan Monthly Sales Recap: October 2024: Sales +14% YoY (AI +21%, ex ...

Semicap in 2025: All the headwinds the Street ignores

Wall Street is ignoring a number of headwinds blowing over WFE spending in 2025: Intel and Samsung giving up on their ambitious plans, China normalizing, lack of a recovery in trailing-edge logic, and only a measured recovery in memory spending. On balance, we expect WFE spending to increase by 3% next year, 9% below consensus expectations of 13% growth, resulting in 5-7% downside on revenues and 6-12% on earnings for the top 5 equipment vendors.

Hyperscalers report this week – read across for Nvidia and AI Infrastr...

Capex expectations for hyperscalers run vastly behind expectations for Nvidia. Investors are anticipating very positive comments and continued revisions this week.

ASML crash, TSMC beat and raise, Wolfspeed lifeline, and more. Tech We...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week.

TSMC 3Q24: raising FY24 guide as GM approaches 60%. Top pick into 2025...