reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Downgrading Micron: Cyclical patterns should prevail, even along secul...
Memory fundamentals are strong, with HBM demand rising alongside a recovery in conventional memory, while supply stays tight. We expect a series of earnings beats over the coming quarters. However, Micron trades at peak multiples, and we expect those beats to be offset by continued multiple compression, consistent with past cycles—likely resulting in muted stock performance. We therefore downgrade Micron to Neutral, with a $190 target. For now, we prefer TSMC. It offers AI exposure comparable ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
OpenAI should account for 17% of expectations for Nvidia 2027 datacent...
Total capex required to meet OpenAI’s needs could reach ~$130bn by 2027, roughly equal to what consensus forecasts, on average, for each of the top four hyperscalers over the same horizon. In this note, we estimate how much of Nvidia’s datacenter revenue expectations this represents.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Foundries: Upside for TSMC; others at risk.
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish the last section on Enterprise IT. Driven by strong AI demand, TSMC increased its 2025 growth outlook to 30% (from 25%). This still leaves room for upside, as it implies...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
XPUs: Sizing the upside for Broadcom and the downside for Nvidia
Broadcom disclosed last week a $10bn AI rack order for 2H26 (widely linked to OpenAI) and signaled growth in their AI division could accelerate further in 2027. In this note, we break down what this could mean for the ASIC vs. GPU battle and the future structure of the AI compute market, looking in particular at the addressable market of in-house ASICs.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
3661 ALCHIP TECHNOLOGIES INC.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
40978Z ASML HOLDING NV
2357 TT HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO
ASUSTEK COMPUTER
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...
We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.
- Pelham Smithers
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 1Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 237 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25 – Foundries: Upside at TSMC, others at risk.
Today, we are publishing the Foundries section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Tariffs didn’t trigger any guide down for 2025, although all flag macro as a risk into the second half of the year. TSMC maintained a 25% growth outlook, implying limited sequential growth in 2H despite ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
CLS CELESTICA INC.
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
AAPL MOBILEYE NV
IBM APPLE INC.
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
AAPL US APPLE INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
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