reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Semiconductors: Readthrough from Nvidia’s Q3 Results
While the FY25 Q3 results constituted a beat, they came in quite close to what the share price implied. However, the guidance for Q4 surprised on the upside. Pelham Smithers reviews the performance and outlook, with a readacross to beneficiaries in Japan and the numbers from China.
4062 IBIDEN CO. LTD.
5706 MITSUI MINING AND SMELTING COMPANY LIMITED
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6758 SONY CORPORATION
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
6857 JP ADVANEST
AAPL APPLE INC.
1532533D CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES CORP
688256 CAMBRICON TECHNOLOGIES CORP LTD
4062.T IBIDEN CO
AAPL US LTD.
285A JT APPLE INC
KIOXIA CORPORATION (285A JT)
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
How much WFE is required to produce a 1 GW datacenter?
As a follow up to our cheat sheet summarizing the cost structure of a 1GW datacenter, we estimate today on a single slide WFE required to produce semiconductors for a 1 GW datacenter, with our usual important caveat: WFE spending is driven by the growth of production capacity. In other words, one spends once on WFE to build a 1GW datacenter many times over.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Gen AI Big Idea Series – Ayar Labs CEO, Mark Wade Co-packaged optics u...
We kicked off the 5th annual BCG × NSR Gen-AI Big Idea Series this month. We will host a slate of exceptional speakers through Feb-26 (full line-up on website). Our first session, a conversation with Mark Wade, CEO of Ayar Labs, went deep on optical I/O: progress in bringing optical I/O to market, the roadblocks to scaling co-packaged optics, and how optical interconnects could redefine the architecture and economics of datacentres. Please see the link below for our takes.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
OpenAI buildout plans – what do they tell us about best 5-year investm...
OpenAI announced a series of major contracts and partnerships in recent weeks, suggesting ambitions to deploy anywhere between 10 and 30GW of compute, with rich information about potential vendor positioning. We investigate in this research what can be inferred from these contracts and partnerships, and draw implications for the main names we cover, involved in the supply chain: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, TSMC, Micron, and semicap manufacturers.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Downgrading Micron: Cyclical patterns should prevail, even along secul...
Memory fundamentals are strong, with HBM demand rising alongside a recovery in conventional memory, while supply stays tight. We expect a series of earnings beats over the coming quarters. However, Micron trades at peak multiples, and we expect those beats to be offset by continued multiple compression, consistent with past cycles—likely resulting in muted stock performance. We therefore downgrade Micron to Neutral, with a $190 target. For now, we prefer TSMC. It offers AI exposure comparable ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
OpenAI should account for 17% of expectations for Nvidia 2027 datacent...
Total capex required to meet OpenAI’s needs could reach ~$130bn by 2027, roughly equal to what consensus forecasts, on average, for each of the top four hyperscalers over the same horizon. In this note, we estimate how much of Nvidia’s datacenter revenue expectations this represents.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Foundries: Upside for TSMC; others at risk.
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish the last section on Enterprise IT. Driven by strong AI demand, TSMC increased its 2025 growth outlook to 30% (from 25%). This still leaves room for upside, as it implies...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
XPUs: Sizing the upside for Broadcom and the downside for Nvidia
Broadcom disclosed last week a $10bn AI rack order for 2H26 (widely linked to OpenAI) and signaled growth in their AI division could accelerate further in 2027. In this note, we break down what this could mean for the ASIC vs. GPU battle and the future structure of the AI compute market, looking in particular at the addressable market of in-house ASICs.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
3661 ALCHIP TECHNOLOGIES INC.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
40978Z ASML HOLDING NV
2357 TT HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO
ASUSTEK COMPUTER
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.