Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC guided for mid-20% revenue growth this year, with AI revenues set to double, implying mid-teens growth for non-AI. We see upside: Intel outsourcing and further N3 adoption in smartphones could push o...
We have seen a number of press outlets in recent days reporting or speculating about initiatives to break-up Intel, that echoed well the direction of travel we anticipated when Pat Gelsinger announced his resignation. See the link below for our assessment of what could happen next and implications for Intel, Broadcom and TSMC.
TSMC revealed last week they expect $80bn of AI compute revenues in 2029, up from $12bn in 2024. This represents 45% p.a. growth over 5 years. In this note we put this into perspective, integrating the guidance with all the moving parts of the ramp of AI infrastructure: mix shift between GPU and ASICs, gross margin compression, change in content mix between HBM, logic and packaging, etc. This leverages the expertise we have developed on all these fronts over the last couple of years, and allows...
We publish today our comprehensive Quarterly Bible: 238 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
Today, we are publishing the final section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible on Foundries. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC is outperforming peers on both revenue growth and gross margin trajectory. We expect this trend to continue next year, supported by several company-specific tailwinds: Intel increasing out...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 25th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, Enterprise IT, Ride sharing & Delivery, and Foundry. Hyperscale revenues grew 13% YoY, with cloud serv...
We hosted the fourth session of our Gen AI Big Idea series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Bryan Black, CEO of Chipletz. We delved into the journey to panel-level chips, their applications, and the emerging ecosystem supporting them.
Wall Street is ignoring a number of headwinds blowing over WFE spending in 2025: Intel and Samsung giving up on their ambitious plans, China normalizing, lack of a recovery in trailing-edge logic, and only a measured recovery in memory spending. On balance, we expect WFE spending to increase by 3% next year, 9% below consensus expectations of 13% growth, resulting in 5-7% downside on revenues and 6-12% on earnings for the top 5 equipment vendors.
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