reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & TSMC: the baseline & what’s next
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on TSMC with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD/Intel, and Semicap. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk. Please see the link below for more details.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
IBM MOBILEYE NV
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs & Semicap equipment: the baseline & what’s next.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on semicap equipment with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD/Intel. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The token is the new transistor… on steroids – Facts & implications
We now have 2 years of history on how OpenAI has been able to optimise a generation of models with GPT4. We have gathered the data onto a chart and offer our thoughts on implications for the industry and what comes next on a single slide. Please see the link below for more details.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?
The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semiconductors in the crash: Relative valuations walked back 15 years...
As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Intel Vision: Where do we stand? What matters?
A last note from us, before we call it a week. Intel Vision next week will feature the first keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, the incoming CEO. We take the opportunity to review where things stand and options ahead. Please follow the link below - an easy read for your weekend!
- Pierre FerraguÊ
AI infrastructure growth, 2024-2027: Who wins inside the chip?
Nvidia’s updated GPU roadmap provided some good visibility on how the macro-architecture of GPUs will evolve until 2027. To see the implications for key players supplying the chips’ bill of material, summarized on a single slide, see the article attached.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q24
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
AI buildouts: How is 2026 shaping up? What do we know already?
The outlook for 2025 AI datacenter spending is solid, with the debate now shifting to 2026 and the supply-demand trajectory. As the last earnings season is still fresh in our minds and our team just came back from Asia, we have gathered in this short note all what we know so far of 2026, and implications.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Semicap: everyone aims to gain share in a muted WFE marke...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Semicap equipment revenues were up 10% QoQ with non-Chinese spending recovering and Chinese spending beginning to decline. Vendors expect Chinese spending to decline significantly in 2025 but st...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24 – Foundries: $80bn in AI revenues in 2029
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC guided for mid-20% revenue growth this year, with AI revenues set to double, implying mid-teens growth for non-AI. We see upside: Intel outsourcing and further N3 adoption in smartphones could push o...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Intel: Breaking up the dream?
We have seen a number of press outlets in recent days reporting or speculating about initiatives to break-up Intel, that echoed well the direction of travel we anticipated when Pat Gelsinger announced his resignation. See the link below for our assessment of what could happen next and implications for Intel, Broadcom and TSMC.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSMC to grow AI revenues 45% p.a. to 2029. Implications?
TSMC revealed last week they expect $80bn of AI compute revenues in 2029, up from $12bn in 2024. This represents 45% p.a. growth over 5 years. In this note we put this into perspective, integrating the guidance with all the moving parts of the ramp of AI infrastructure: mix shift between GPU and ASICs, gross margin compression, change in content mix between HBM, logic and packaging, etc. This leverages the expertise we have developed on all these fronts over the last couple of years, and allows...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
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