The fixed business continues to perform well for Odido, but the same can not be said for mobile, where subs growth is now negative, and MSR growth is close to zero. In aggregate, SR has declined again to +3.1% y/y (MSR +0.1% and FSR +11.9% y/y) from +3.9% y/y. Odido is doing a good job of converting the SR into EBITDA growth, but the lack of ARPU and MSR growth is a bit of a concern.
Odido has reported a good set of Q1 24 results, but APRU trends have deteriorated again, and are now only +0.7% y/y in B2C mobile, suggesting that the planned offensive on front book prices, promised at the Q4 results, can not come soon enough.
Odido has (finally!) reported a good set of Q4 23 results today, and has given some solid guidance. Interestingly, on the call management said that front book prices were the “topic of the year” – we have long worried that a lack of front book price rises would hold back growth, but if action is taken (Odido said that it has shut down the Tele2 brand which was the most aggressive on price), then this would be a positive for all the Dutch players
Odido reported Q3 23 results today. SR trends are good, but slowed slightly thanks to mobile; fixed revenue growth though accelerated again to +12.9% y/y from +10.9% y/y in Q2 23, and on the call Odido said that it expected net adds to be higher in 2024 than in 2023.
We recently hosted KPN CEO Joost Farwerck and KPN CFO Chris Figee for a post Q2 roadshow. We provide feedback in this report. All-in-all, we continue to think that KPN is one of, if not the best high quality safe haven names in the sector. We see a possible upside opportunity over the medium-term as OpEx and capex falls post the fibre roll finishing.
KPN has reported a solid set of results vs consensus expectations, and revenue trends are encouraging, but new 2023 EBITDAal guidance is for €2,410m, +0.2% y/y vs guidance at the Q3s of 0%-2% growth y/y, and is -0.5% below consensus of €2,421m. In effect the guidance range has been cut to 0%-1% from 0%-2%, due to a higher-than-expected labour agreement and slightly worse than expected competitive environment in fixed.
KPN has reported a strong set of results, with a good EBITDA result (c+0.8% vs consensus, that had been raised into the quarter), better mass-market SR trends, +2.5% y/y from +2.0% y/y (SME revenues now at +9.1% y/y), and 20%+ FCF beat.
Adyen: Adding financial products to the offering Avantium: Close of financing package for FDCA plant Floridienne: FY21 : Successful integration of recent acquisitions Hyloris: Financing the repurposing pivot KPN: Proposal to lower fiber wholesale rates by >10-30% Recticel: Closing divestment of Bedding
This note will explore the business case for fiber, following KPN’s ramp-up of investment, with the aim to reach 80% coverage in the Neths by 2026. Apart from building a separate P&L for KPN’s standalone fiber activities and its JV with APG, we’ll also look at the competitive fiber landscape in the Neths. While we believe the market is warming to the idea that fiber can create value in the long-term, we still think it discounts the upside of KPN having the largest footprint in the Neths, a netwo...
Most people will say European Telecoms hasn’t had a good 2021 – underperforming the market by 8%. However, it had its best absolute performance since 2015; outperformed the US telcos; seen more guidance upgrades vs. downgrades, record high M&A volumes and improving service revenue growth.
AB InBev: medium term guidance of 4-8% org EBITDA growth Greenyard: Upcoming CMD : expect a new ‘Strategy 2030’ Intertrust: CSC commits to bid at € 20 KPN: Glaspoort extends fiber rollout Sequana Medical: Completion of patient enrolment in POSEIDON trial Umicore: Flemish minister dismisses Hoboken appeal Various: Small & Mid Cap Conference book
If truth be told, before writing this report we were sceptical about the financial merits of ESG investing; however, in doing the research, we found clear evidence of better TSR from Telco ESG leaders compared to laggards, that those with better Governance (no Government ownership) outperformed the others, and that ESG can help companies in the sector have a lower cost of borrow – these three things alone are good reason enough to look at ESG from a financial perspective in our view.
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