reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband quick hit: Louisiana BEAD winners announced
Yesterday, Louisiana Office of Broadband Development & Connectivity announced the winners of their BEAD process. T-Mobile showed up as part of a consortium that won most of the grants, while Cable Companies and ILECs won less than we expected. In this short note, we discuss the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Summarizing Policy Implications of Trump/Republican Victor...
In the previous two months, we published multiple notes on the implications of the election, projecting forward on what would likely happen to market impacting policies in the event of either a Trump or Harris Victory. Here, we link to those notes—you can quickly skip the Harris parts—as well as summarizing key points relating to the likely impact of a Trump victory. We note that the notes involving Musk were the ones we think most underrated (at least they were initially) and important. We a...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Odido Q2 24: Fixed going from strength to strength, but mobile laggi...
The fixed business continues to perform well for Odido, but the same can not be said for mobile, where subs growth is now negative, and MSR growth is close to zero. In aggregate, SR has declined again to +3.1% y/y (MSR +0.1% and FSR +11.9% y/y) from +3.9% y/y. Odido is doing a good job of converting the SR into EBITDA growth, but the lack of ARPU and MSR growth is a bit of a concern.
- Russell Waller
Odido (T-Mobile NL) Q1 24: B2C mobile ARPU now only +0.7% y/y - front...
Odido has reported a good set of Q1 24 results, but APRU trends have deteriorated again, and are now only +0.7% y/y in B2C mobile, suggesting that the planned offensive on front book prices, promised at the Q4 results, can not come soon enough.
- Russell Waller
Odido Q4 23: Good SR and EBITDA growth; possible frontbook fix on th...
Odido has (finally!) reported a good set of Q4 23 results today, and has given some solid guidance. Interestingly, on the call management said that front book prices were the “topic of the year” – we have long worried that a lack of front book price rises would hold back growth, but if action is taken (Odido said that it has shut down the Tele2 brand which was the most aggressive on price), then this would be a positive for all the Dutch players
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Odido (T-Mobile NL) Q3 23: Fixed revenue growth accelerates again; sp...
Odido reported Q3 23 results today. SR trends are good, but slowed slightly thanks to mobile; fixed revenue growth though accelerated again to +12.9% y/y from +10.9% y/y in Q2 23, and on the call Odido said that it expected net adds to be higher in 2024 than in 2023.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Neutral, TP: €3.8, +16%) Feedback from NDR with CFO and CEO
We recently hosted KPN CEO Joost Farwerck and KPN CFO Chris Figee for a post Q2 roadshow. We provide feedback in this report. All-in-all, we continue to think that KPN is one of, if not the best high quality safe haven names in the sector. We see a possible upside opportunity over the medium-term as OpEx and capex falls post the fibre roll finishing.
- Russell Waller
KPN (Buy, TP: €4.0, +32%) Q4 22: Slightly weaker 2023 EBITDAal guidan...
KPN has reported a solid set of results vs consensus expectations, and revenue trends are encouraging, but new 2023 EBITDAal guidance is for €2,410m, +0.2% y/y vs guidance at the Q3s of 0%-2% growth y/y, and is -0.5% below consensus of €2,421m. In effect the guidance range has been cut to 0%-1% from 0%-2%, due to a higher-than-expected labour agreement and slightly worse than expected competitive environment in fixed.
- Russell Waller
New Street: KPN (Buy, TP: €3.8, +15%) Q1 22: Strong start to the year...
KPN has reported a strong set of results, with a good EBITDA result (c+0.8% vs consensus, that had been raised into the quarter), better mass-market SR trends, +2.5% y/y from +2.0% y/y (SME revenues now at +9.1% y/y), and 20%+ FCF beat.
- Russell Waller
- Guy Sips
- Jeroen Van Den Bossche
- Ruben Devos
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
Morning Note: ADYEN NA, AVTX NA, FLOB BB, HYL BB, KPN NA, REC BB
Adyen: Adding financial products to the offering Avantium: Close of financing package for FDCA plant Floridienne: FY21 : Successful integration of recent acquisitions Hyloris: Financing the repurposing pivot KPN: Proposal to lower fiber wholesale rates by >10-30% Recticel: Closing divestment of Bedding
- Russell Waller
TEL2 B TELE2 AB CLASS B
TEL TELENOR ASA
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
SCMN SWISSCOM AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
TEF TELEFONICA SA
ELISA ELISA
ORA ORANGE
TELIA TELIA COMPANY
VOD LN VODAFONE GROUP
BT BRITISH TELECOM
KPN KONINKLIJKE KPN NV
- Ruben Devos
KPN - High-fiber snack KPN NA
This note will explore the business case for fiber, following KPN’s ramp-up of investment, with the aim to reach 80% coverage in the Neths by 2026. Apart from building a separate P&L for KPN’s standalone fiber activities and its JV with APG, we’ll also look at the competitive fiber landscape in the Neths. While we believe the market is warming to the idea that fiber can create value in the long-term, we still think it discounts the upside of KPN having the largest footprint in the Neths, a netwo...
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