Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
MTN Nigeria has reported a strong set of Q1 results across all metrics. Price increases were only implemented from March which suggests further sharp improvements going forward. The company maintained FY25 guidance, but in our view is tracking ahead.
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
Our two-day 9th virtual TMT Forum was attended by 32 listed companies and 292 investors. The trends in media seem to point to a correct start to the year. Telecom players are optimistic on the regulatory front (intra-market consolidation). Software & IT services and semis continue to see mixed trends, apart from in AI and some hopes that a few companies will benefit from the rise of defence spending. In terms of companies, the main positive messages came from Auto1, CMCOM, Indra, Infineon, Telec...
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