MTN Rwanda has reported a slower set of Q1 numbers. Revenue and EBITDA continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and margins were also impacted by the One Network Area initiative and to a lesser extent by the depreciating RWF vs. the USD.
MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q1 results. Service revenue growth accelerated and continued to grow well above inflation. EBITDA trends slowed but remain solid. Capex intensity was down vs. Q1 last year. Medium guidance for Service Revenue growth (“high twenties %”) has been reiterated. The macro is expected to remain challenging in 2024. However, there has been an encouraging slow down in inflation over Q1.
H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and EBITDA trends improved and capex – while still above historic levels – was contained. However, improvements were modest as the environment remains difficult and growth remains limited.
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
MTN Rwanda has reported a solid set of Q4 numbers on an underlying basis (NSRe). Reported service revenue growth decelerated vs. Q3 impacted by the MTR cuts but EBITDA growth accelerated. Mid-term guidance for service revenue growth has been reiterated (“mid-teens service growth”) and the company targets a stable EBITDA margin.
MTN Nigeria reported Q4 results on Friday and held its earnings call yesterday. For our take on the results, including call feedback please click on the link below. We also provide our take on MTN Ghana which reported Q4s a day before MTN Nigeria.
2023 was a relatively tough year for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. With inflation starting to subside some of this pressure is easing, although some African currencies may continue to weaken.
Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
MTN has reported a slower set of Q3 results with both revenue and EBITDA trends decelerated this quarter but overall performance remained decent given the macro economic context and inflection in the SA top line is encouraging.
MTN Rwanda has reported a decent set of Q3 numbers. Service revenue trends decelerated vs. Q2 but EBITDA growth accelerated. The company expects FY23 guidance to remain intact with mid-teens service growth and healthy EBITDA margins.
MTN Uganda has reported a solid set of Q3 numbers with service revenue trends accelerating vs. Q2; service revenue growth is tracking over the MT guidance during these first nine months of 2023. EBITDA trends decelerated but are in line with the MT guidance over 9m23. Also, the company highlighted some improvement in the macro, especially easing inflation, which should be positive for margins in the future.
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