reports
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Philip Burnett
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T in talks to buy Lumen fiber assets
Bloomberg reports that AT&T is in exclusive discussions to buy the fiber business for “more than $5.5BN”. We are not at all surprised that the deal is happening or that AT&T is the buyer. We are surprised by the price – it looks too low. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- VRS RESEARCH TEAM
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Jonathan Chaplin
The Lumen transaction report series
The biggest transaction likely to happen this year will be the sale of all or part of Lumen’s Mass Markets business (we expect other much bigger deals, but these will likely take longer to emerge than some seem to expect). We have covered the potential Lumen transaction in three reports in the last week: 1. We explored the Mass Markets asset in a detailed report last week that leverages Broadband Insights. This covered the markets where Lumen has deployed fiber so far, the number of competitor...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk (and TMUS) Prevail (Kinda) Over T and VZ at FCC
In a note last fall, we predicted that if Trump were elected, Elon Musk would be the most powerful force in telecom policy, elevating satellite priorities over the policy priorities of traditional communications networks. One of the issues we pointed to where that influence might be exercised involved potential SpaceX interference with T’s cellular network. This past Friday, that FCC addressed that issue, granting a conditional waiver to SpaceX regarding out-of-band emissions (OOBE) that will i...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q24: Telecom Infrastructure – Recovery across the board
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex rebounded, up 13% YoY, driving a strong recovery across the value chain—from fixed and mobile equipment to semiconductors. Nokia remains our top pick in the sector.
- Philip Burnett
MVNO Rates: EchoStar vs. Cable
A question we are often asked is how much the carriers charge MVNOs for wireless services. While working through EchoStar’s 10-K we noticed new reporting that seems to show the MVNO fee it paid in 2022 and 2023. In this brief note we unpack the relevant EchoStar reporting and compare the implied MVNO cost per subscriber to our estimates for the Cable MVNO.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: a closer look at the infrastructure for sale
We published a report earlier this week arguing that the three national wireless carriers should all be targeting Lumen’s Mass Markets assets. In this follow-up, we provide a breakdown of Lumen’s Mass Markets assets, detailing where fiber has been deployed, how many copper locations can be upgraded with good returns, and who they compete against in fiber markets, upgradeable copper markets, and residual copper markets.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: BEAD Adjustments Certain but Details Still Cloudy
Yesterday, we published a note on whether T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk will come out on top with revisions to the BEAD program that Republicans are contemplating. As we noted, there are numerous changes we felt confident Republicans would do, such as removing a fiber preference, that will have no material impact on publicly traded companies. But there are several other changes that could, including whether the federal government will impose a high-cost threshold on states that will shift funds f...
- Blair Levin
Will T, VZ/FYBR and CHTR or Musk Come Out on Top with BEAD Revisions?
While the Trump Administration and Congressional Republicans have sent some signals about how they will revise the $42.5 Billion Biden Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program, there has been no definitive word yet on key issues regarding those revisions. That may change today, when there is a congressional hearing on the program. In this note, we review the potential changes from the investor perspective, with a focus on the relative benefits to wireline broadband providers (par...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN: mass markets sale must happen!
We gleaned insights down at Metro Connect that convince us that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile all need to buy Lumen’s Mass Market business. We understand the challenges with the deal that has been presented, but those can be fixed. We suspect the asset will transact soon, and it will be a strategic win for whomever gets it.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband: Thesis challenging insights from the front lines
I am flying back from Metro Connect where I had 20+ meetings with fiber companies over two days. We encountered some perspectives that challenged our view of how the broadband market will evolve. I have some work to do with the team to determine how much these insights will impact the thesis, but I thought I would share the fresh insights now, in case any of you want to start working on this in parallel.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
A smart innovation from T-Mobile
Everyone watching the Super Bowl undoubtedly saw T-Mobile’s launch of its direct-to-device service. This text-based service offered in conjunction with Starlink has been on the cards for a while. The innovation: they are offering the service to AT&T and Verizon customers. I don’t mean that their competitor’s customers have to switch to T-Mobile to get the service; I mean that you can stay a Verizon customer and get T-Mobile’s direct-to-device service. It’s free during the beta launch period,...
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