reports
- Vikash Harlalka
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Telecom: Growth in fixed & semis; mobile stabilizing
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 11% YoY. RAN revenues declined 1% YoY, reflecting the ongoing weak demand following the 5G cycle. Telecom semis ...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA Quick Hit: A Merger Between NBCU and WBD?
Press reports indicate that Comcast has submitted a revised bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and has offered to merge it with its NBCUniversal division (NBCU). WBD shareholders would receive a mix of cash and stock in the new entity. We think there are merits to this transaction but getting a deal approved by the regulators could prove challenging.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
Moody's Ratings updates Disclosures Related to Credit Rating Informati...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has published an updated Disclosures Related to Credit Rating Information Removed from Website Display report. To access the report, please go to /documents/PBC_1406020, or alternatively, navigate to the Regulatory Affairs Disclosures page on http...
- Blair Levin
T’s 4.9 Spectrum Win Faces Court Challenge
In October 2024, the FCC, without dissent, provided T a major spectrum win by providing the FirstNet Authority —and therefore as a practical matter, T-- 50MHz of spectrum in the 4.9 band. A coalition of various public safety and critical infrastructure enterprises, supported by VZ and TMUS, have challenged the FCC decision in court. Next Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hear arguments related to the challenge. In this note, we preview that argument.
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- Vikash Harlalka
Charter: Subscribers and EBITDA growth heading lower
There is a lot that’s common between Charter and Comcast, and yet there is a lot that’s different about the two companies. Both are operating in an environment where broadband subscriber growth remains a distant dream. Where the two companies differ is expectation around EBITDA growth. While both companies expect EBITDA to decline in 4Q25, Charter expects to grow EBITDA in 2026 unlike Comcast which expects EBITDA to decline in 2026. We also think Charter has higher pricing power than Comcast.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T/T-Mobile US, AT&T show...
Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T all showed solid numbers over 3Q25. Despite strong competition, all three mobile telecom operators were able to grow revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, we believe T-Mobile US might benefit from a credit rating upgrade at S&P, while we could see debt increase a bit at Verizon and AT&T because of debt-funded acquisitions. In our view, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US look the most attractive in this credit sub-space.
- Vikash Harlalka
Comcast: Tough next few quarters
Comcast is making the right moves in trying to fix their Cable business. These moves will take time to deliver tangible results. For now, we expect some near-term pain. Broadband ARPU growth will remain challenged as the company forgoes price hikes in early 2026. ARPU will also remain pressured due to the continued migration of customers to new pricing. ARPU growth is the biggest driver of EBITDA growth. With ARPU growth remaining challenged, we expect EBITDA declines of mid-single digits over t...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA 3Q25 Quick Take: Improved subscriber trends
Comcast reported broadband losses that were better than expected. On the call, we would be keen to hear the drivers behind the less negative subscriber trends and if these trends may continue into 4Q. We expect the stock to trade up on these results but where it likely winds up for the day will depend on commentary around 4Q trends.
- Blair Levin
Trump Administration Confirms Media Antitrust Policy (and It’s Not Abo...
The New York Post just ran a story headlined “Trump Admin Favors Paramount Skydance in Race to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery.” That conclusion is no surprise; it confirms our previous published analysis. It also, however, lays out new information about the Trump approach to reviewing deals, particularly involving media. In this note we analyze what the article signifies, including how it is an effort to lower bidding tension that will result in a “Trump Transaction Tax” on WBD shareholders, and h...
- David Barden
AT&T: It’s all about that ARPU, no treble
We address here 1) some of the conversations that emerged around postpaid phone ARPU growth and its relationship, or not, to price strategy, 2) the increased focus on volumes amongst the big 3, and 3) AT&T management’s comments about M&A. We’ve also updated our model for today’s results. Of course, we go deep and show our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
AT&T 3Q25 Quick Take: Volumes ahead, financials in-line, guidance reit...
AT&T reported 3Q results this morning. Postpaid phone net adds beat estimates handily but wireless service revenue was a little light due to lower ARPU. EBITDA was ahead of estimates and EPS was in line. The company reiterated all of its 2025 and long-term guidance. Based on these results, we think the stock will trade up slightly. Cable may be softer on AT&T’s stronger than expected FWA net adds.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- Blair Levin
A Versant/WBD deal: Prospects for Government Approval
News reports suggest that CMSCA or its cable channel spin-off (Versant) is considering making a bid for WBD. In this note we analyze the prospects for a government review of such a transaction as well as the potential upsides of attempting such a deal even with the odds of DOJ approval being low.
- David Barden
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