reports
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Insights from preliminary proxy
Charter filed a preliminary proxy earlier today. We now have detailed historical and projected financials for Cox. The standalone forecasts and synergy forecasts are below ours, but in-line with consensus and prior guidance. We provide comparisons in this brief note.
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
A director at Charter Communications Inc sold 178,887 shares at 392.470USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Defaulting on Interest Payment
EchoStar released an 8-K this morning stating that it has elected not to make an interest payment due today. They have a 30-day grace period before this becomes an event of default. They hope to get relief from the FCC in that time. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: what exactly are they buying from Lumen
This report leverages Broadband Insights to explore the markets where AT&T is buying fiber, including market demographics, the future upgrade opportunity, Cable companies at risk, and overbuilders at risk. We also distinguish the infrastructure that AT&T is buying in these markets from what they lease under IRUs and what they wholesale. Finally, we show our forecast for customers and penetration.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
CLS CELESTICA INC.
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
AAPL MOBILEYE NV
IBM APPLE INC.
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
AAPL US APPLE INC
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN / AT&T: quick thoughts on fiber transaction
We provide quick thoughts on deal terms, the structure, the pending JV, and implications for Lumen, AT&T, the other wireless operators, and the Cable operators in this note. We have lots more work to do on this transaction in the coming weeks. AT&T is a big winner, in our view. This transaction supports our Buy recommendation (though we don’t expect to get paid on this thesis tomorrow).
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
IBM MOBILEYE NV
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR / Cox: thoughts following the call and detailed deal analysis
We published an initial take yesterday. Blair published his report on regulatory risks to the deal. In this report, we provide quick estimates for synergies, a pro forma model, thoughts on leverage and share repurchases, accretion / dilution, and valuation.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
IBM MOBILEYE NV
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
In this note we touch briefly on all the main controversies, including progress in retail and wholesale, the prospect of a Cable MVNO, progress on the network build and FCC commitments, the return of the DBS merger, the direct-to-device opportunity, and the impact of tower lease obligations on valuation.
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