reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Telecom: Growth in fixed & semis; mobile stabilizing
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 11% YoY. RAN revenues declined 1% YoY, reflecting the ongoing weak demand following the 5G cycle. Telecom semis ...
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband - Optimum Fiber has higher cNPS than Optimum C...
Optimum’s cNPS for their fiber product is higher than their Cable product but the gap has decreased in recent months. Fiber cNPS has decreased and Cable cNPS has increased slightly. As the size of Optimum’s Fiber customer base increases, the overall cNPS should inch higher. More importantly, Fiber scores are higher than Cable in every category. The company has a lot of work to do to improve scores in price / value and customer support, both of which remain very low for both technologies
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- Blair Levin
T’s 4.9 Spectrum Win Faces Court Challenge
In October 2024, the FCC, without dissent, provided T a major spectrum win by providing the FirstNet Authority —and therefore as a practical matter, T-- 50MHz of spectrum in the 4.9 band. A coalition of various public safety and critical infrastructure enterprises, supported by VZ and TMUS, have challenged the FCC decision in court. Next Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hear arguments related to the challenge. In this note, we preview that argument.
- Jonathan Moreland
MNRO MONRO INC
LTC LTC PROPERTIES INC.
DIN DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
URE UR-ENERGY
EXP EAGLE MATERIALS INC.
FMC FMC CORPORATION
WINA WINMARK CORP.
PMTS CPI CARD GROUP
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
INTA INTAPP INC
NCDL NUVEEN CHURCHILL DIRECT LENDING CORP
ASST ASSET ENTITIES INC.
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Lowering broadband and EBITDA estimates post 3Q
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates and how we compare to guidance and consensus. We also look at Charter’s relative valuation in comparison to Comcast. Please see our separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. We have lowered 4Q broadband new adds and ARPU. We have also lowered our total revenue and EBITDA expectations.
- Vikash Harlalka
Charter: Subscribers and EBITDA growth heading lower
There is a lot that’s common between Charter and Comcast, and yet there is a lot that’s different about the two companies. Both are operating in an environment where broadband subscriber growth remains a distant dream. Where the two companies differ is expectation around EBITDA growth. While both companies expect EBITDA to decline in 4Q25, Charter expects to grow EBITDA in 2026 unlike Comcast which expects EBITDA to decline in 2026. We also think Charter has higher pricing power than Comcast.
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR 3Q25 Quick Take: Subs and EBITDA miss
Charter’s broadband losses were higher than expected. 3Q is usually a seasonally stronger quarter yet subscriber losses showed little sign of improvement vs. 2Q. EBITDA also missed estimates. On the call, we are keen to hear what’s driving the higher subscriber losses. We expect the stock to trade down, but, like CMCSA yesterday, where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around expected 4Q subscriber and EBITDA trends.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T/T-Mobile US, AT&T show...
Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T all showed solid numbers over 3Q25. Despite strong competition, all three mobile telecom operators were able to grow revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, we believe T-Mobile US might benefit from a credit rating upgrade at S&P, while we could see debt increase a bit at Verizon and AT&T because of debt-funded acquisitions. In our view, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US look the most attractive in this credit sub-space.
- David Barden
AT&T: It’s all about that ARPU, no treble
We address here 1) some of the conversations that emerged around postpaid phone ARPU growth and its relationship, or not, to price strategy, 2) the increased focus on volumes amongst the big 3, and 3) AT&T management’s comments about M&A. We’ve also updated our model for today’s results. Of course, we go deep and show our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
AT&T 3Q25 Quick Take: Volumes ahead, financials in-line, guidance reit...
AT&T reported 3Q results this morning. Postpaid phone net adds beat estimates handily but wireless service revenue was a little light due to lower ARPU. EBITDA was ahead of estimates and EPS was in line. The company reiterated all of its 2025 and long-term guidance. Based on these results, we think the stock will trade up slightly. Cable may be softer on AT&T’s stronger than expected FWA net adds.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- David Barden
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- David Barden
3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 3 More States
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
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