reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T Model Update
This note overs changes to the model. We lowered postpaid phone adds a touch but increased EBITDA and FCF a touch. In our note following the call, we covered surprising comments on fiber wholesale, lowered expectations for Internet Air, and the implications of both for the industry. We covered results and comparison of trends with Verizon in a separate note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover Stankey’s surprising comments on the future of fiber Open Access, the implications for asset multiples, the importance of asset mix in sector valuations going forward, and the implications for M&A. We also cover Stankey’s comments on FWA expectations and the implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
FYBR Quick Hit: Glendon Letter Confirms Intention to Vote Against the ...
Glendon Capital, which owns ~10% of Frontier’s shares have issued a letter this morning stating that they will be voting against the deal at the current price. This is the third shareholder to publicly express opposition. We expect more similar announcements in due course. We have been recommending investors vote against the deal at $38.50. Here is our comprehensive analysis of what we think the asset is worth to Verizon and what Verizon can afford to pay,
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T 3Q24 Quick Take: Strong results
A strong set of results marked by in-line adds, better than expected ARPU, and lower than expected costs (low upgrades), all driving a beat on EBITDA and FCF. In addition to a comparison of results vs estimates and consensus, and the trending charts, in this note, we cover: 1. Contrasting mobile trends at AT&T and Verizon (AT&T is just doing better) 2. Contrasting fiber trends at AT&T and Verizon (AT&T is just doing better) 3. Contrasting FWA trends at AT&T and Verizon 4. What it all means for t...
- Jonathan Chaplin
VZ: quick thoughts following the analyst day
The event just wrapped. The big things for us were the new targets for fiber and FWA, the new articulation of their FWA strategy (this is a big deal), new capex guidance, a change in leverage targets, and our struggles with how they articulate capital allocation priorities. On broadband strategy, there were surprises in how they articulated their fiber strategy and their FWA strategy, with implications for Verizon, Frontier and other broadband assets, and for Cable.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: FCC Votes to Provide T a Big Step Towards 4.9 GHz Win
One of the few spectrum battles happening in the near-term is the battle over whether the FCC should transfer control of the 4.9 GHz spectrum band, currently licensed to local public safety groups, to the FirstNet Authority (FNA). This would have the effect of making 50 megahertz of spectrum, reportedly worth between $3 and $14 billion, available for exclusive commercial use by T at no cost to the company. A coalition supported by VZ and TMUS opposed the reallocation. As we anticipated, the F...
- Jonathan Chaplin
FYBR Quick Hit: Another Shareholder Voting Against the Deal
This morning, another shareholder, Carronade Capital has come out with a letter urging Frontier shareholders to vote against the deal. Carronade, which owns ~2MM shares of Frontier, has said that the Verizon offer of $38.50 doesn’t represent fair value of Frontier. They believe Frontier has an intrinsic value of at least $48.60 per share on a standalone basis before a fair share of synergies from the transaction.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk and BEAD: Further Thoughts
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. Few notes we have written have stirred the level of surprise and consideration that note produced. Nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote but we repeatedly heard one question that we believe deserves further elaboration. That question is how could Musk, at this late date, ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Verizon’s New Fiber Strategy: What to expect from the analyst day
Verizon will lay out their new fiber strategy at their analyst day on Tuesday. In this report, we try to anticipate what they might do. We suspect they will extend the build in Frontier markets, accelerate the build in their own markets, and possibly explore out-of-market builds off-balance-sheet. Taken together, these efforts could increase fiber locations to 38-43MM over the next few years.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
FYBR Quick Hit: Top Shareholders Planning to Vote Against the Deal
This morning, Copper Investors, a top shareholder of Frontier, issued a letter to the Frontier board suggesting that the offer price of $38.50 was too low, and that they intend to vote against the deal as well. Cooper has made the case that Frontier’s standalone value is 24-62% above the offer price and that a fair transaction value would be up to 94% higher than the current offer.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Election Impact: Summary of Notes Plus Upcoming Calls
It is likely that in the next month (and perhaps beyond) the single most important event affecting capital markets will be the election. Over the last month, we have provided six notes on the potential impact of the election, separately focusing on policies affecting telecom, spectrum, media, tech, and leadership, as well as a note on what we think is the most underappreciated potential impact; how a Trump Presidency could result in a dramatic shift in telecom and spectrum policy due to the infl...
- Jonathan Chaplin
TMUS seems lukewarm on Cable acquisition
When asked about his interest in cable at the DT Capital Markets Day, Sievert seemed to suggest that Cable may face a “capital surprise”. This will no doubt dampen anticipation for a TMUS / CHTR deal. We are not so sure this is the right conclusion. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buybacks Muted in October
We determined after last month’s filings that Charter was not repurchasing stock in the open market, suggesting they may be involved in a strategic process. As it turns out, they were in discussions to acquire Liberty Broadband (LBRD) with or without GCI (our note on the proposed transaction here). We lowered our expectations for buybacks following the announcement of the deal talks. Advance/Newhouse filed its latest Charter ownership disclosure last night. The buyback amount was almost negligib...
Charter Communications Inc: 1 director
Two Directors at Charter Communications Inc sold 5,686 shares at between 0.000USD and 356.640USD. The significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Frontier / Verizon Deal - The case for a higher price
This report pulls together our work that makes the case for a higher price. We establish: 1) Frontier’s standalone value of at least $60; 2) synergy value of at least $11; 3) a value based on comparable transactions of at least $49; 4) Verizon’s ability to comfortably pay at least $67, and still create value for its shareholders; 5) a record of past telecom deals where investors have demanded more and received it, even without competing bids.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Implications of Multiple Mergers at the FCC
It appears likely that within a few months, multiple transactions—TMUS buying US Cellular, VZ buying Frontier, and DISH and DirecTV merging—will be pending at the FCC. The transactions involve all four, or three (depending on how you think about it) of the national facilities based mobile carriers. Investors have asked, how will the presence of multiple transactions affect the process of approval for each other? We address that question in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Charter Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. The most significant change was lower broadband losses due to lower ACP losses than previously expected. We now expect slightly lower losses than consensus in 3Q24. Price target is $473 (+44%).
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.