reports
- Blair Levin
A Versant/WBD deal: Prospects for Government Approval
News reports suggest that CMSCA or its cable channel spin-off (Versant) is considering making a bid for WBD. In this note we analyze the prospects for a government review of such a transaction as well as the potential upsides of attempting such a deal even with the odds of DOJ approval being low.
- David Barden
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- David Barden
3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
Moody's Ratings corrects its website display for certain notes issued ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has corrected the display on its websites for Comcast Corporation's Guaranteed Senior Notes due 2047, 2049 and 2052 (CUSIPs 20030NCC3, 20030NCE9 and 20030NCG4) to reflect these notes are senior unsecured. Due to an internal administrative error, an incorrect seniority was d...
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 3 More States
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
- Blair Levin
SATS’ Spectrum Deals with T and now VZ: How Will the DOJ React?
SATS, already having announced deals to sell spectrum to T and SpaceX, is reportedly close to a deal to sell its AWS-3 band to VZ. We expect easy approval from the FCC but given the DOJ Antitrust Division’s comments recently about the risks of leaving “the market vulnerable to increased coordination among the remaining three carriers” how will it react to the new deals? In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for reviews of the spectrum sales to incumbent wireless carriers.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Vikash Harlalka
Cable’s win share among movers
There has been an ongoing debate among investors whether low moves actually hurt the Cable companies. Until now, it wasn’t possible to answer this question due to lack of data. We now have data from Opensignal that helps us answer this question. In this report, we show that the large Cable operators have been winning more than 50% share among movers who are new to their footprint. The win share has declined over time, especially as competitive intensity has increased. Cable operators can reduce ...
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Another Major Update
We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA Quick Hit: Versant Spin Accretive to Comcast Valuation
Comcast filed Form 10 for Versant late last week. Versant includes most of Comcast’s cable networks and some digital media assets. In this short note, we analyze the financials of Versant, the impact of the spin-off on Comcast’s growth, valuation of Versant, and the potential upside to Comcast’s stock following the spin-off.
- Vikash Harlalka
Charter Pre-3Q25 Model Update
We updated our model for recent management commentary at investor conferences. We lowered 3Q EBITDA slightly but kept full year estimate unchanged. We expect consensus EBITDA estimates for the quarter to come closer to our estimates. Our near-term price target is $479 (+79%).
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 7 more proposals
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 39 states & territories. Comcast and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations has stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share increased slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Funding wins and investments by operator
In this note on BEAD, we summarize the funding wins so far for each operator along with the matching investment they are expected to make based on the cost estimates of each state. Based on the state estimates, they are contributing 63% of the estimated build costs and the operators are expected to invest 37% of the cost. The share of investments needed varies depending on the operator, and in some cases may be lower than estimated.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Telecom Infrastructure: Fixed and semis recover; mobile s...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry and Semicap Equipment. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, ...
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: NTIA Deadline is here
Today is the deadline for all states to submit their final proposals. We now include proposals from 32 states in this latest update on BEAD. Fiber’s share of locations has nearly stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share declined slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for a third of the locations awarded.
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