reports
- Vikash Harlalka
Autumn for Broadband 2Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T Model Update
We have updated the model following results. Changes to the segments are not material, but changes to capex, cash taxes and free cash flow in light of the OBBBA are. For thoughts following the call, click here. For a review of results, click here. (Rating: Buy; TP: $32; Total Return: +20%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T quick thoughts following the call 2Q25
In this note we cover evolving thoughts on the implications of the new Cable MVNO, the implications of AT&T’s revised capital allocation decisions, new insights on the pace of fiber deployment, a shift in the FWA strategy, the implications of both for cable, comments on spectrum purchases, the implications for EchoStar, and an early take on mobile and broadband market growth.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T 2Q25 Quick Take: Results strong; FCF guide increased, but less th...
Postpaid phone adds beat estimates, which will come as a relief following Verizon’s results. Service revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and FCF were all slightly better than expected. The Company increased FCF guidance following OBBBA, but by less than some had hoped. In addition, the Company did not commit to increasing share repurchases with the increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming
This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DOJ on spectrum and fourth carrier
The DOJ made some surprising comments on the importance of a fourth carrier and the dangers of the three national carriers acquiring more spectrum in its decision on USM (decision here). Please see Blair’s note for the definitive view on regulatory implications. We provide some quick thoughts on implications for Wireless Carriers and Cable in this brief note.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Defaulting on Interest Payment
EchoStar released an 8-K this morning stating that it has elected not to make an interest payment due today. They have a 30-day grace period before this becomes an event of default. They hope to get relief from the FCC in that time. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: what exactly are they buying from Lumen
This report leverages Broadband Insights to explore the markets where AT&T is buying fiber, including market demographics, the future upgrade opportunity, Cable companies at risk, and overbuilders at risk. We also distinguish the infrastructure that AT&T is buying in these markets from what they lease under IRUs and what they wholesale. Finally, we show our forecast for customers and penetration.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
CLS CELESTICA INC.
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
AAPL MOBILEYE NV
IBM APPLE INC.
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
AAPL US APPLE INC
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN / AT&T: quick thoughts on fiber transaction
We provide quick thoughts on deal terms, the structure, the pending JV, and implications for Lumen, AT&T, the other wireless operators, and the Cable operators in this note. We have lots more work to do on this transaction in the coming weeks. AT&T is a big winner, in our view. This transaction supports our Buy recommendation (though we don’t expect to get paid on this thesis tomorrow).
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
IBM MOBILEYE NV
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
- Pierre FerraguÊ
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TSLA TESLA INC
T AT&T INC.
MXL MAXLINEAR INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
DLR DIGITAL REALTY TRUST INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DHER ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY DELIVERY HERO SE
IBM MOBILEYE NV
STM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
HYUELE SK HYNIX
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
In this note we touch briefly on all the main controversies, including progress in retail and wholesale, the prospect of a Cable MVNO, progress on the network build and FCC commitments, the return of the DBS merger, the direct-to-device opportunity, and the impact of tower lease obligations on valuation.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 1Q25 Quick Take: Wireless making progress (but not enough)
Wireless results continued to improve, but not by enough to convince investors that the business will ultimately be worth what the spectrum is worth. We didn’t see any disclosure on the big strategic issues (spectrum sale; DBS merger; spectrum fight with SpaceX; potential D2D partner).
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