reports
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Currency Devaluation Shapes Performance; Expec...
HIGHER ASP DRIVES REVENUE GROWTH AMID WEAK VOLUMES RMDA recorded 1Q23 revenues of EGP392 million, in line with our estimates of EGP394 million, increasing by a healthy 14.3% YoY and remaining flat QoQ (+0.3% QoQ); primarily driven by growth in private sales (+19.4% YoY) along with a growth in the company’s ASP of 26% YoY in 1Q23. Volumes excluding toll manufacturing dropped by 40.6% YoY and 5.0% QoQ; mirroring pharma market performance, with the average selling price being the sole revenue dr...
- Alia El Mehelmy
- Passant Mohamed
RMDA EY | Flagging an outperformer on a PEG of 0.2x
Prominent among the crowd. Rameda trades on a deeply discounted 2023e PEG of 0.19x and is among our top picks in Egypt. We raise our operational forecasts to reflect product price hikes and rollover our DCF. This is offset by a higher cost of equity assumption, with our 12M TP unchanged at EGP3.90/share. The implied one-year FWD P/E is 10.8x, 39% below EM peers on Egypt market specifics. EGP weakness should not affect Rameda’s earnings outlook. Six of Rameda’s top ten products (c40% of revenue) ...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Solid revenues, healthy margins, interest inco...
RETAIL PHARMA MARKET CONFIRMED SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN 1Q22, RMDA OUTPERFORMS Retail pharma has partially recovered in 2021, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 2022. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP86.45 billion in 2021, showing a modest of 7% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c.17% YoY....
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: New launches drive revenues; Bottom-line grows...
RETAIL PHARMA MARKET PARTIALLY RECOVERED, RMDA OUTPERFORMS Retail pharma has partially recovered in 2021, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 2022. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP86.45 billion in 2021 (in line with our estimates of EGP86.5 billion), showing a modest of 7% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-d...
- Alia El Mehelmy
- Passant Mohamed
RMDA EY | Margin and inventory trends reversing, sharply
The story is back. Rameda trades on an attractive 2022e PEG of 0.2 (the lowest among Egypt healthcare peers and vs. a 1.7 MENA average), and we believe results releases will shine light on its compelling valuation. 4Q21 is due on 24 February, for which we expect net income of EGP61mn, +42% y-o-y and a new high since listing. The industry backdrop is conducive of stronger and more profitable growth (2022e EPS +48% y-o-y), allowing Rameda to resume its primary strategy of molecule acquisitions as ...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda: Meet the management webinar – key takeaways
RMDA OUTPERFORMS RETAIL PHARMA MARKET, WITH RECORD SALES IN 4Q21 The retail pharma market continued to sequentially recover during 11M21, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 4Q21 and accordingly in 2022 and thereafter. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP78.25 billion during 11M21, showing a growth of around 7.1% YoY, with RMDA outperforming market growth, where sales grew by around 35.4% during 11M21according to the latest availabl...
- Mariam Wael
- Merna Arafat
Egypt Pharma 2022: Well positioned for recovery, supported by favorabl...
Egypt is the MEA region’s largest producer and second largest consumer of pharmaceuticals, growing at a CAGR of 17% over 2013a-2020a, surpassing the region’s CAGR of 8%. Despite pressure during the past couple of years because of the pandemic, we forecast total pharma market to grow at a 6-year CAGR of 13.2% between 2021e -26f. During 2022f, we expect the retail pharma market to record sales of EGP95.2 billion (+10.1% YoY), while non-retail pharma sales record EGP48.0 billion (+13.4% YoY), br...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Private sales drive revenue growth, solid bott...
MODEST GROWTH IN RETAIL PHARMA MARKET, RMDA OUTPERFORMS The retail pharma market continued to sequentially recover during 9M21, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery expected in 4Q21. According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP62.0 billion during 9M21, showing a modest of 6% YoY, according to the latest available data. Such YoY growth is higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth) but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Private sales recovery supports performance de...
MODEST GROWTH IN RETAIL PHARMA MARKET CAPS PERFORMANCE According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP39.86 billion during 1H21, showing a modest growth of 7% YoY, according to the latest available data. This came higher than 2020 retail pharma market growth (+4% YoY growth), but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c.17% YoY. Retail pharma market has sequentially recovered during 1H21, which confirms the sustainability of the gradual sequential recovery witnessed in 4Q20, 1...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Covid-related antivirals support sales growth ...
RETAIL MARKET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECOVER IN 1Q21 According to IQVIA, retail pharma sales recorded EGP6.75 billion and EGP6.14 billion in January and February 2021, an increase of 14% and 5% YoY, according to the latest available data. This confirms a sequential recovery from 2020 (+4% YoY growth), but is still below 2019 double-digit growth levels of c.17% YoY. NEW LAUNCHES’ SALES AND COVID RELATED ANTIVIRALS DRIVE TOPLINE GROWTH RMDA reported 1Q21 sales of EGP270.8 million (+16.5% YoY, -5.7...
- Mariam Wael
RMDA: Management webinar key takeaways
ON THE GROUND UPDATE & 4Q20 OUTLOOK * During 2021, and given the second wave of covid, management expects pharma market to recover despite a hike in number of covid cases. This is driven by the belief that the government is not going to impose lockdowns or curfews again to avoid the negative economic consequences. * Management believes that the covid19 would continue in 2021 and up to the 1H22, until vaccine rolling out takes place all over the world. * According to IQVIA’s latest ...
- Mariam Wael
- Merna Arafat
Egypt Pharma 2021: Not entirely defensive; Macro dynamics to support g...
Egypt is the MEA region’s largest producer and second-largest consumer of pharmaceuticals, growing by a CAGR (2013-2019) of 19%, surpassing the region’s CAGR of 8%. Market growth is predominantly driven by out of the pocket expenditure (61% of total health expenditure), alongside a heavily growing population by c.2% per annum. Yet, Egypt still exhibits one of the lowest pharma expenditure per capita figures in the MENA region, implying vast room for future growth. We forecast the total pharma...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Topline Price Driven, Finance Income Boosted P...
RETAIL MARKET IS ON TRACK TO RECOVER AFTER WEAK 1H2020 PERFORMANCE According to IQVIA’s latest available data, Egypt’s retail pharmaceutical market registered total sales of EGP58.35 billion during 9M2020; recording a growth of 2% YoY. Volumes sold recorded a modest decline of 4.0% YoY reaching 1.81 billion units in 9M2020, with only higher ASP driving market growth. During September 2020, retail sales grew by 14% YoY, while volumes grew by 3% YoY; showing strong signs of gradual recovery. We...
- Mariam Wael
Rameda Pharmaceuticals: Topline price driven; interest income boosts b...
IMPOSED MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS PRESSURED PRIVATE SALES According to IMS Health’s latest available data, during 1H2020, Egypt’s retail pharmaceutical market registered total sales of EGP36.20 billion, slightly up by 0.8% YoY, and volumes sold recorded a modest decline of 4.8% YoY reaching 1.13 billion units in 1H2020. During the same period, RMDA’s private sales segment showed a decline of 19.5% YoY in volumes sold, with private sales value growing by 9.7% YoY, mainly attributed to higher av...
- Michel Said
Poised to outperform Egypt’s growing pharma market
A unique story offering decent upside; Initiate with OW. Rameda is the fastest growing pharma player among the top companies in Egypt, growing at a 2013-18 sales CAGR of 43%, c2x peers’ average. This was fuelled by the Group’s active approach of new product launches (launching c40 molecules over 2013-18, out of the current 67 molecules) coming at higher pricing points, boosting the company’s sales and margins. Rameda trades on a 2020e P/E of 12.6x, a c40% discount to peers, unwarranted, in our v...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.