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Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 2QFY25: Seeking high-quality growth and gradu...

Alibaba’s 2QFY25 results are within expectations. Revenue grew 5% yoy to Rmb236.5b, slightly missing the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb36.5b, down 9% yoy and in line with consensus forecast, with net margin of 15.4%. Despite a sequential moderation in GMV growth, we saw a solid performance during the 11.11 campaign due to its strategic execution, and remain optimistic on the cloud and AIDC revenue growth outlook. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$130.00 (US$130.00).

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+8)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Colin Lee
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China Daily: Monday, November 18, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity October data showed signs of stabilisation, with industrial production slightly missing expectations at 5.3% yoy (-0.1ppt), while retail sales grew 4.8% yoy (+1.6ppt), well above forecasts. FAI ytd growth held steady at 3.4% yoy, although property FAI ytd deteriorated further, down to -10.3% yoy and below expectations. The unemployment rate saw a slight improvement. Overall, the real estate sector remains a key drag on economic performance. Results ...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+15)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Colin Lee
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 18, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mainly stable except for weakness in real estate. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$130.00) 2QFY25: Seeking high quality growth and gradual monetisation. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$5.13/Target: HK$5.50) 9M24: Disappointing results; targets positive revenue growth in 2025. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$14.16/Target: HK$22...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Revitalising momentum evident in initial phase of 11.1...

Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude to a high single-digit GMV growth in 2024. We expect the combination of government trade-in subsidies and 11.11 discounts to stimulate consumer demand, particularly with home appliances and 3C digital products taking the spotlight. We anticipate stabilised competition between traditional and livestreaming e-commerce with a strong emphasis on shelf-based e-commerce. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, November 07, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Internet - China Revitalising momentum evident in initial phase of 11.11 campaign. Results LINK REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$38.05/Target: HK$45.08) 1HFY25: DPU rises 3.7% yoy, meeting expectations; enhancing resilience amid macro headwinds. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$65.50/Target: HK$126.00) Solid NBP growth on improved sales and margins across few mar...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LL...

Lately, internet companies convened their respective AI conferences, unveiling a wide range of upgraded AI products that showcase their AI infrastructure development and AI monetisation potential. We opine that the prevailing trend in adtech upgrades focuses on enhancing marketing efficiency and driving GMV growth, resulting in monetisation improvement. We remain optimistic in view of the favourable regulatory environment and industry development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+12)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 05, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Key takeaways from marketing trip.

The key concerns of investors include the sustainability of the recent rally and potential fundamental changes upon policy rollout. We think a valuation repair is underway with the upcoming 11.11 campaign and 3Q/4Q24 results release as a critical juncture. Investors are also becoming increasingly optimistic on mega-cap names such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba and JD in view of a favourable regulatory backdrop and stabilised competitive environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Government policy rollout to boost consumption and dri...

In view of a stronger-than-expected government policy rollout, we reckon that the improved consumption sentiment will benefit e-commerce, local life services and OTA companies. In 2H24, we expect the undemanding valuations of internet companies to be repaired by shareholder returns, cross-border expansion and easing competition. Meanwhile, we believe monetisation momentum will be fuelled by AIGC development and adtech upgrades. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Jonathan Koh ... (+9)
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 09, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...

02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
2013 WEIMOB INC
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
OXMU PRIME US REIT
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
ITMAX ITMAX SYSTEMS BHD
Jonathan Koh ... (+6)
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Stevanus Juanda

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, September 23, 2024

GREATER CHINA Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$95.00) Key takeaways from Apsara Conference 2024. INDONESIA Update Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp63.00/Target: Rp70.00) Competition in live e-commerce to intensify. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer Sector trades at -1SD to its five-year mean but given its defensiveness, it is likely to underperform on a relative ba...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): Key takeaways from Apsara Conference 2024.

On 19 Sep 24, Alibaba Apsara Conference 2024 (“云栖大会”) kicked off in Hangzhou. AliCloud officially launched Qwen 2.5, with its flagship model, Qwen 2.5-72B surpassing Llama 405B in performance. AliCloud is committed to investing in AI infrastructure, laying the foundation for AI-driven innovation. AliCloud also reiterated its focus on foundational model development, application innovation and open-source initiatives. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$95.00 (US$95.00).

Greater China Research Team ... (+3)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Greater China Daily: Monday, September 23, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$95.00) On 19 Sep 24, Alibaba Apsara Conference 2024 (“云栖大会”) kicked off in Hangzhou. AliCloud officially launched Qwen 2.5, with its flagship model, Qwen 2.5-72B surpassing Llama 405B in performance. AliCloud is committed to investing in AI infrastructure, laying the foundation for AI-driven innovation. AliCloud also reiterated its focus on foundational model development, application innovation and open-source initiatives. ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outl...

2Q24 revenue growth was lukewarm, hampered by a subdued macro backdrop, but most earnings beats were delivered by internet companies. We expect consumers to continue switching to service- and experience-oriented, which will benefit OTA, local life services and online games amid the summer holiday period. Key catalysts in 2H24 that will drive internet companies’ valuation repair include shareholder returns, cross-border expansion, easing competition and more, in our view. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+12)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 10, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures rising. Sector Construction Building on the positive development of macroeconomic policies in 2H24-2025. Internet 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outlook remains promising. INDONESIA Small...

Greater China Research Team ... (+8)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Strategy: Alpha Picks - September 2022

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
OU8 CENTURION
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
SE SEA ADS
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
IOI IOI CORP BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
2013 WEIMOB INC
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
OR PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS PUBLIC CO LIMITED
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
ADOOY PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
SUNWAY SUNWAY BHD
HUME ESSO THAILAND PCL
02015 HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
09961 LI AUTO INC
BTG CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
LAGENDA BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KEX LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
CVL KERRY EXPRESS THAILAND PCL
CIVMEC LIMITED
Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 1QFY25: Solid cloud revenue growth in 2H24; g...

Alibaba delivered solid 1QFY25 results. Revenue grew 4% yoy to Rmb243.2b, slightly missing the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb40.7b, down 9% yoy and is 7% above consensus forecast, with net margin of 16.7%. We remain optimistic on the double-digit revenue growth target for the cloud business in 2H24 and TTG’s take rate improvement upon strategic execution. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$95.00 (US$95.00).

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+12)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China Daily: Friday, August 16, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity July macro data was weak, with both FAI and industrial production growth trending lower and missing expectations. FAI ytd growth declined to 3.6% yoy in July, as property related FAI stayed weak, falling 10.2% ytd yoy. Retail sales improved by 0.7ppt to 2.7% yoy in July from June. Together with a surprise uptick in unemployment rate, data points to lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registration grew 10% yoy/14% mom but fe...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+21)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, August 16, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Another month of lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV market share tops record 53% on increased subsidies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$76.40/Target: HK$95.00) 1QFY25: Solid cloud re...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Strategic revamp to revitalise e-commerce GMV growth.

E-commerce companies are actively undergoing strategic adjustments to balance low prices and user experience, thereby facilitating GMV growth momentum. Following the adjustments, we expect to see a re-acceleration of growth and better profitability in 2H24. We opine that cross-border e-commerce expansion and adtech upgrades will remain as the key catalysts for e-commerce companies amid stagnant domestic ecommerce growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

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