Key investor focus areas discussed during the marketing trip include: a) key drivers for AI cloud and applications outperformance, b) sustainability of monetisation of AI applications, c) ROI of accelerating capex, d) self-sufficiency in chips development, and e) where the competition in food delivery and quick commerce is ultimately headed. We foresee that AI/AI Cloud, online gaming and OTAs are poised to benefit from further re-rating, supported by their outperformance in growth. Maintain OVER...
In August, the HSI and MSCI China Index hit their ytd highs, posting gains of 1.2% mom and 4.2% mom respectively, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Chair J. Powell at Jackson Hole. Looking ahead, we expect some consolidation as most of the positives have been priced in and are biased to SELL. We add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, while initiating SELL calls on Li Auto and OOIL. We take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME.
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment.
We expect the emergence of AI agents and AI applications to continue fuelling the surge in AI inference demand, driving the acceleration of hyperscaler revenue growth, and we forecast revenue growth reaccelerating in 2H25-2026. The sustained dominance of super-apps in commerce, coupled with the swift rise of cost-efficient AI models, creates a strong catalyst for adoption and future global expansion. We upgrade the internet sector to OVERWEIGHT and are OVERWEIGHT the AI segment. WHAT’S NEW Ev...
China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand delivery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Alibaba reported strong 1QFY26 results. Revenue grew 2% yoy to Rmb247.7b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb33.5b, down 18% yoy, in line with our forecast, with net margin of 14.8%, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In the coming quarters, management expects to see: a) solid CMR growth as the company leverages on the Rmb30t addressable market, and b) strong cloud growth fuelled by AIrelated demand. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$170.00 ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...
In July, the HSI and MSCI China index extended their growths, rising 2.9% mom and 4.5% mom respectively to reach their peak on 24 July before pulling pack in the latest week, as investors tend to take profit after the Politburo announcement. With another 90-day tariff delay from the US, we maintain a positive outlook for leading domestic stocks in healthcare and IT. New additions to our BUY list are JBM Healthcare and Lenovo. We take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor.
WAIC 2025 was held in Shanghai on 26-28 July under the theme "Intelligent Horizons, Shared Future". The focus of WAIC this year shifted from LLM to the next frontier – AI applications and AI agents. As AI capabilities extend from the cloud to edge devices, a transformative evolution in human-AI interaction is underway, characterised by more tangible, embodied forms and empathetic voice interfaces. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet WAIC - Battlefield of AI applications and agents to reshape productivity. Results WuXi AppTec (2359 HK/BUY/HK$111.70/Target: HK$146.00) 1H25: Results beat; benefitting from growing CRDMO service demand. Upgrade to BUY. INDONESIA Results AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ/BUY/Rp1,345/Target: Rp1,525) 2Q25: Momentum builds, but 4Q25 to del...
June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
The national subsidies programme continued to reinforce the consumption trend of “value-based substitution” during the 618 festival. While the share of online vs offline spending remained stable, emerging channels are creating new growth opportunities. We believe the consumption momentum will be shaped by: a) impact from the temporary suspension of the national subsidies programme in five provinces, and b) changes in the food delivery competitive landscape. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...
Market concerns persist over the viability of JD’s entry into the food delivery space and the implications of the increasingly competitive landscape. In response to the heightened rivalry, food delivery companies have ramped up their investment, weighing on near-term profitability. By leveraging high-frequency food delivery scenarios to channel traffic toward e-commerce categories, JD and Alibaba have effectively enhanced conversion efficiency during the 618 campaign. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
The HSI and MSCI China index rebounded 5.3% mom and 3.5% mom respectively in May, after China and the US agreed on a 90-day tariff truce. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainties and tariff war risks remain. Hence, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors that have been gaining traction in recent weeks. New additions to our BUY list are Prudential and Sino Biopharm, and we take profit on SHKP and Trip.com.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and TCOM. Update Qingdao Port International (6198 HK/NOT RATED/Price: HK$6.54) Key takeaways from NDR. INDONESIA Update Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ/BUY/Rp2,620/Target: Rp3,000) Synergy potential from Lawson; expansion outside Java remains intact. MALAYSIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Wrap-Up ...
Alibaba’s 4QFY25 earnings slightly missed expectations. Revenue grew 7% yoy to Rmb236.5b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit rose 22% yoy to Rmb29.8b, missing consensus forecasts, with net margin of 12.6%. CMR revenue growth of 12% yoy exceeded expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$165.00 (US$165.00).
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.