Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To- B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) rollout of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: Baidu,...
Highlights To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To-B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) roll-out of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Over time, we expect fur...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
We expect Alibaba to report lacklustre 3QFY26 results but expect a gradual margin recovery on softer investment in instant delivery competition. We are cautiously optimistic on Alibaba’s core commerce business due to the high base last year and ongoing competition. Nevertheless, we are sanguine on its cloud strategy, which will position the company well to become a technology platform centred on AI + Cloud with long-term strategic value and growth flywheel. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target ...
Top Stories Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably towards the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high policy vo...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
We reckon that the AI wave is driven by key themes including: a) recurring AI LLM/applications and cloud revenue growth, and b) a wider deployment of proprietary and data driven AI agents by vertical players to strengthen competitive moats. Amid an uncertain competitive backdrop, we opine that cloud hyper-scalers are key beneficiaries underpinned by their ecosystem scale and technological capabilities, underscoring growing investor confidence in the AI-driven sector’s re-rating. Maintain OVERWEI...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
China’s internet companies reported resilient 3Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement in the online gaming and OTA sectors, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. Margin pressure in e-commerce due to the intense on-demand delivery competition is likely to ease in 4Q25, but could persist into 2026 given the continuous investment and tough comparison base boosted by the trade-in programme in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Alibaba, Tencent, TCOM, TME, Ne...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
Alibaba reported solid 2QFY26 results. Revenue grew 5% yoy to Rmb247.8b (15% like-for-like basis), in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb10.4b, down 72% yoy, missing our forecast, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In 3QFY26, management expects: a) significant narrowing of quick commerce losses, b) moderated CMR growth due to the high base last year, and c) continued strong cloud revenue growth. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$206.00 (US$206....
Top Stories Company Results | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$157.80/Target: HK$206.00) Alibaba reported solid 2QFY26 results. Revenue grew 5% yoy to Rmb247.8b (15% like-for-like basis), in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb10.4b, down 72% yoy, missing our forecast, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In 3QFY26, management expects: a) significant narrowing of quick commerce losses, b) moderated CMR growth due to the high base last year, and c) continued str...
Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are Alibaba and Kuaishou.
We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite margin erosion led by instant delivery competition. We remain optimistic on Alibaba’s core commerce and cloud strategy, which leaves it well-positioned to become a technology platform centred on AI + Cloud and a consumer ecosystem integrating shopping and lifestyle services. Its intensified investment in AI and instant retail reinforces its long-term strategic value and growth flywheel. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$203.00 (US$203.00).
Top Stories Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite margin erosi...
Greater China Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite marg...
We attended the Alibaba Cloud Apsara Conference 2025 (“云栖大会”) on 24-26 Sep 25 and noted various key growth drivers: a) potential upward revision of its Rmb380b three-year AI infrastructure capex plan; b) data centre energy consumption projected to rise 10x by 2032 vs 2022, underscoring computing demand; c) expanded partnerships, including NVIDIA, with PAI platform integration for embodied intelligence and autonomous driving; and d) launch of seven new Qwen models. Maintain BUY with a higher targ...
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