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Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy: Alpha Picks -- July Conviction Calls

June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 03, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...

BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AEONTS AEON THANA SINSAP (THAILAND) PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AIY IFAST
COM7 COM7
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
CPALL TB CP ALL
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
PROP PROPNEX LTD
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
TIDLOR TIDLOR HOLDINGS PCL
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
Claire Wang Kelai ... (+3)
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China 2H25 Market Strategy: A Big Beautiful Deal?

 Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued ...

The national subsidies programme continued to reinforce the consumption trend of “value-based substitution” during the 618 festival. While the share of online vs offline spending remained stable, emerging channels are creating new growth opportunities. We believe the consumption momentum will be shaped by: a) impact from the temporary suspension of the national subsidies programme in five provinces, and b) changes in the food delivery competitive landscape. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+12)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Sunny Chen
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, June 19, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare Entering a new phase of accelerated growth. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Internet 618 Festival – Evolving consumer trends and continued focus on value for money. Small/Mid Cap Highlights JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.85/Target: HK$3.31) Takeaways from luncheon. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KL...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: JD’s new initiative in on-demand delivery is reshaping...

Market concerns persist over the viability of JD’s entry into the food delivery space and the implications of the increasingly competitive landscape. In response to the heightened rivalry, food delivery companies have ramped up their investment, weighing on near-term profitability. By leveraging high-frequency food delivery scenarios to channel traffic toward e-commerce categories, JD and Alibaba have effectively enhanced conversion efficiency during the 618 campaign. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China index rebounded 5.3% mom and 3.5% mom respectively in May, after China and the US agreed on a 90-day tariff truce. Nonetheless, geopolitical uncertainties and tariff war risks remain. Hence, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors that have been gaining traction in recent weeks. New additions to our BUY list are Prudential and Sino Biopharm, and we take profit on SHKP and Trip.com.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+9)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 04, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and TCOM. Update Qingdao Port International (6198 HK/NOT RATED/Price: HK$6.54) Key takeaways from NDR. INDONESIA Update Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ/BUY/Rp2,620/Target: Rp3,000) Synergy potential from Lawson; expansion outside Java remains intact. MALAYSIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Wrap-Up ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 4QFY25: Slight earnings miss; CMR delivers be...

Alibaba’s 4QFY25 earnings slightly missed expectations. Revenue grew 7% yoy to Rmb236.5b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit rose 22% yoy to Rmb29.8b, missing consensus forecasts, with net margin of 12.6%. CMR revenue growth of 12% yoy exceeded expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$165.00 (US$165.00).

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+7)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Friday, May 16, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations rose 0.5% yoy, 26.5% mom and 5% wow in the 19th week of 2025, with PEV market share increasing to 50.2%. Geely’s Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy saw strong sales growth driven by new model launches, aggressive pricing, tech upgrades, and robust export expansion. We lift Geely’s 2025 net profit forecast by 24%, given its upbeat 1Q25 earnings. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$31.00 Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Ge...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China index fell 4.3% mom and 5.2% mom respectively in April, driven by Trump’s tariff announcements in early-April and fears of a potential global recession. Due to the ongoing external uncertainties, we will maintain our exposure to domestic policy beneficiaries and defensive sectors. New additions to our BUY list are Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, and Trip.com, and we take profit of CR Land and JBM Healthcare.

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+11)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Guan An Tan
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Philip Wong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, May 06, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. Sector Aviation Airlines: 1Q25 results below expectations. Weak fuel prices to support full-year performance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Strategy 1Q25 Results Recap ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon...

Chinese internet companies’ share prices have dropped 10-30% mtd following the implementation of incremental tariffs from the US. Chinese internet companies have limited business exposure to the US except for PDD’s Temu. However, the 34% tariffs announced by China on all US imports could have potential implications for China mega-caps’ AI capex in relation to US chip imports. We prefer domestic-focused plays which stand to benefit from domestic policy stimuli, with Southbound inflow to be a key ...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+9)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 09, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Navigating headwinds and uncovering opportunities upon tariff pressures. INDONESIA Update Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp348/Target: Rp480) Iphone 16 series to be available in 2Q25. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Update Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK/BUY/RM1.27/Target: RM1.66) We view the RPT deal as fair and strategic as the acquisition allows Matrix to see faster ro...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the...

Seeing great opportunities in AI development, major China cloud hyperscalers are significantly lifting their AI investment in 2025. With the launch of Manus, we are more optimistic about the accelerating monetisation capabilities of AI agents and applications through API integration and tool utilisation, which benefit cloud hyperscalers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+15)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Paula Ruth
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Sunny Chen
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 25, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Monetisation potential and trends of AI agent from the launch of Manus AI. Results CMOC (3993 HK/BUY/HK$6.72/Target: HK$8.70) 2024: Above expectations; copper output up 55% yoy to 650,161 tonnes. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$11.62) 2024: Results in line; more volatile business environment in 2025 but limited valuation ...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Potential implications from implementation of social s...

JD and Meituan announced plans to gradually begin providing social security coverage for full-time and stable part-time riders nationwide starting 2Q25. Despite JD’s strategic implementation on zero commission and full social security coverage, we opine that this will have a limited impact on the company on competitive landscape and cost level, on the back of Meituan’s dominant market share, extensive restaurant coverage and 1P rider network scale advantages. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Alibaba Group (9988 HK): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next th...

Alibaba’s 3QFY25 results surpassed expectations. Revenue grew 8% yoy to Rmb280.2b, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb51.1b, up 6% yoy, beating our and consensus forecasts, with net margin of 18.2%. CMR revenue growth of 9% yoy came in above expectations, propelled by the introduction of service fees, a take rate improvement and the national subsidies programme. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$150.00 (US$150.00).

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+9)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Friday, February 21, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China auto sales rebounded in the seventh week of 2025, but remained low compared with the previous month due to consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment amid a price war and the transitional period of product upgrade. Zeekr’s acquisition of Lynk & Co strengthens Geely’s premium EV strategy. GWM has unveiled a strategy for affordable smart driving solutions. DeepSeek is gaining traction among automakers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay S...

Julia Pan Mengyao ... (+2)
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

China Internet: Potential implications of de minimis tax exemption.

On 5 February, the USPS temporarily suspended the receipt of parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong. However, on 7 February, Trump signed an order delaying the cancellation of the de minimis trade exemption. We think PDD’s valuation will be partially overshadowed by the potential tariff pressures on Temu but supported by ongoing strategic mitigation efforts. As such, we believe that the uncertainties in policy changes will remain as the key concern throughout 2025.

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