Alibaba’s 2QFY25 results are within expectations. Revenue grew 5% yoy to Rmb236.5b, slightly missing the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb36.5b, down 9% yoy and in line with consensus forecast, with net margin of 15.4%. Despite a sequential moderation in GMV growth, we saw a solid performance during the 11.11 campaign due to its strategic execution, and remain optimistic on the cloud and AIDC revenue growth outlook. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$130.00 (US$130.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity October data showed signs of stabilisation, with industrial production slightly missing expectations at 5.3% yoy (-0.1ppt), while retail sales grew 4.8% yoy (+1.6ppt), well above forecasts. FAI ytd growth held steady at 3.4% yoy, although property FAI ytd deteriorated further, down to -10.3% yoy and below expectations. The unemployment rate saw a slight improvement. Overall, the real estate sector remains a key drag on economic performance. Results ...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mainly stable except for weakness in real estate. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$130.00) 2QFY25: Seeking high quality growth and gradual monetisation. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$5.13/Target: HK$5.50) 9M24: Disappointing results; targets positive revenue growth in 2025. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$14.16/Target: HK$22...
Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude to a high single-digit GMV growth in 2024. We expect the combination of government trade-in subsidies and 11.11 discounts to stimulate consumer demand, particularly with home appliances and 3C digital products taking the spotlight. We anticipate stabilised competition between traditional and livestreaming e-commerce with a strong emphasis on shelf-based e-commerce. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet - China Revitalising momentum evident in initial phase of 11.11 campaign. Results LINK REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$38.05/Target: HK$45.08) 1HFY25: DPU rises 3.7% yoy, meeting expectations; enhancing resilience amid macro headwinds. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$65.50/Target: HK$126.00) Solid NBP growth on improved sales and margins across few mar...
Lately, internet companies convened their respective AI conferences, unveiling a wide range of upgraded AI products that showcase their AI infrastructure development and AI monetisation potential. We opine that the prevailing trend in adtech upgrades focuses on enhancing marketing efficiency and driving GMV growth, resulting in monetisation improvement. We remain optimistic in view of the favourable regulatory environment and industry development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
The key concerns of investors include the sustainability of the recent rally and potential fundamental changes upon policy rollout. We think a valuation repair is underway with the upcoming 11.11 campaign and 3Q/4Q24 results release as a critical juncture. Investors are also becoming increasingly optimistic on mega-cap names such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba and JD in view of a favourable regulatory backdrop and stabilised competitive environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
In view of a stronger-than-expected government policy rollout, we reckon that the improved consumption sentiment will benefit e-commerce, local life services and OTA companies. In 2H24, we expect the undemanding valuations of internet companies to be repaired by shareholder returns, cross-border expansion and easing competition. Meanwhile, we believe monetisation momentum will be fuelled by AIGC development and adtech upgrades. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
GREATER CHINA Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$95.00) Key takeaways from Apsara Conference 2024. INDONESIA Update Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp63.00/Target: Rp70.00) Competition in live e-commerce to intensify. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer Sector trades at -1SD to its five-year mean but given its defensiveness, it is likely to underperform on a relative ba...
On 19 Sep 24, Alibaba Apsara Conference 2024 (“云栖大会”) kicked off in Hangzhou. AliCloud officially launched Qwen 2.5, with its flagship model, Qwen 2.5-72B surpassing Llama 405B in performance. AliCloud is committed to investing in AI infrastructure, laying the foundation for AI-driven innovation. AliCloud also reiterated its focus on foundational model development, application innovation and open-source initiatives. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$95.00 (US$95.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$95.00) On 19 Sep 24, Alibaba Apsara Conference 2024 (“云栖大会”) kicked off in Hangzhou. AliCloud officially launched Qwen 2.5, with its flagship model, Qwen 2.5-72B surpassing Llama 405B in performance. AliCloud is committed to investing in AI infrastructure, laying the foundation for AI-driven innovation. AliCloud also reiterated its focus on foundational model development, application innovation and open-source initiatives. ...
2Q24 revenue growth was lukewarm, hampered by a subdued macro backdrop, but most earnings beats were delivered by internet companies. We expect consumers to continue switching to service- and experience-oriented, which will benefit OTA, local life services and online games amid the summer holiday period. Key catalysts in 2H24 that will drive internet companies’ valuation repair include shareholder returns, cross-border expansion, easing competition and more, in our view. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures rising. Sector Construction Building on the positive development of macroeconomic policies in 2H24-2025. Internet 2Q24 results wrap-up: Overall earnings beat; 2H24 outlook remains promising. INDONESIA Small...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
Alibaba delivered solid 1QFY25 results. Revenue grew 4% yoy to Rmb243.2b, slightly missing the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb40.7b, down 9% yoy and is 7% above consensus forecast, with net margin of 16.7%. We remain optimistic on the double-digit revenue growth target for the cloud business in 2H24 and TTG’s take rate improvement upon strategic execution. Maintain BUY with a slightly lower target price of HK$95.00 (US$95.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity July macro data was weak, with both FAI and industrial production growth trending lower and missing expectations. FAI ytd growth declined to 3.6% yoy in July, as property related FAI stayed weak, falling 10.2% ytd yoy. Retail sales improved by 0.7ppt to 2.7% yoy in July from June. Together with a surprise uptick in unemployment rate, data points to lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registration grew 10% yoy/14% mom but fe...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Another month of lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV market share tops record 53% on increased subsidies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$76.40/Target: HK$95.00) 1QFY25: Solid cloud re...
E-commerce companies are actively undergoing strategic adjustments to balance low prices and user experience, thereby facilitating GMV growth momentum. Following the adjustments, we expect to see a re-acceleration of growth and better profitability in 2H24. We opine that cross-border e-commerce expansion and adtech upgrades will remain as the key catalysts for e-commerce companies amid stagnant domestic ecommerce growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
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