reports
- Tung Do
SCS – Q3-2023 Preview: Profit is forecasted to be flat compared to the...
For Q3-2023, we forecast revenue and PAT to reach VND 177 billion (-8% YoY) and VND 127 billion (-14% YoY), respectively, mainly due to low import-export output, forecast to reach 34.7 thousand tons (-13% YoY). Accumulated 9M-2023 revenue and PAT are estimated to reach VND511 billion (-22% YoY) and VND371 billion (-24% YoY), respectively completing 70% and 72% of our full-year forecast. We maintain our 2023F forecast with revenue of VND 732 billion (-14% YoY), NPAT of VND 513 billion (-21% Yo...
- Tung Do
SCS – Q2 2023 Results closely in line with our expectations
SCS announced Q2-2023 results with revenue and NPAT of VND 172 billion (-17% YoY) and VND 129 billion (-16% YoY) respectively, in line with our expectations with previously expected revenue and EAT of VND 175 billion and VND 129 billion. In 6M-2023, revenue and NPAT reached VND 334 billion (-26% YoY) and VND 242 billion (-29% YoY), respectively, fulfilling 45% and 47% of the full year forecast. For 2023, revenue/NPAT/EPS is forecast at VND743 billion (-13% YoY)/526 billion (-19% YoY)/VND5,22...
- Tung Do
SCS – Profit declining rate to slow from Q2-2023
SCS decreased the 2023 business plan for Revenue and PBT by 9% and 10% respectively compared to the previous preliminary plan in March. The final plan for revenue and PBT in 2023 are VND 780 billion (-8% YoY) and VND560 billion (-20% YoY) respectively. For Q2-2023, we forecast revenue vs NPAT to reach VND 175 billion (-15% YoY) and VND 125 billion (-18% YoY), mainly due to weak import-export cargo volume, forecasted to reach 34 thousand tons (-23% YoY). We maintain our forecast for 2023, in ...
- Tung Do
SCS - Q1-2023 Business Update: Export-import cargo volume drops to rec...
Q1-2023 Revenue/NPAT plummeted by -34% YoY/-40% YoY as export-import cargo volume dropped to the lowest level since listing. SCS sets a low target for 2023, mainly due to concerns about weak trade flow, with export-import cargo volume and NPAT both decreasing by 11% YoY. Q1-2023 Revenue and NPAT completed 19% and 21% of full-year target, respectively. For 2023F, revenue and NPAT are projected at VND 740 billion (-13% YoY) and VND 525 billion (-19% YoY), respectively, corresponding to EPS 202...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board SCS – April International Cargo Throughput Slightly ...
· SCS's import-export cargo throughput in April decreased by 8% compared to the previous month to 15.7 thousand tons, but this level was still 4% higher than the same period last year. · International throughput in May is likely to be under pressure before recovering in June due to the reopening in Shanghai. · We expect international throughput in 2022F/23F to reach 201 thousand tons (+15% YoY) / 221 thousand tons (+10% YoY). Combined with the higher renewed fre...
- Kiet Tran
- Lam Nguyen
- Tung Do
Vietnam Strategy: November – Expect market to move up but beware of vo...
In November, we expect the market to continue its upward trajectory thanks to the clearer resumption of economic activities in Q4 21 with the government’s support package being the main driving force to enhance market movement. However, short-term volatility is possible from a correction following the strong rally in Q3 business results due to the abundance of capital flows in the market. We predict the VN Index to move in the 1400-1500 range. CLEAR RESUMPTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN Q4 21 ...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pinboard SCS – Q3 2021 Business Results Preview: Higher ASP to...
· Estimated Q3-2021 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND172Bn (+3% YoY)/VND121bn (+6% YoY). Cumulative 9M-2021 revenue/NPAT have completed 75%/77% of our full-year forecast. · Affected by the strict social distancing, the int’l cargo volume in Q3-2021 declined by -6% YoY and -20% QoQ to 36 thousand tons. However, the surge in blended ASP (int’l and domestic) of 21% YoY to VND3.6 mn, given higher contribution of int’l cargo of 82% (vs 74% in Q3-2020) and more pharmaceutical imports ...
- Tung Do
Saigon Cargo Service: Q2 21 preview – Cargo throughput volume in line ...
Estimated Q2 21 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND212bn (+47% yoy)/VND150bn (+51% yoy) on the back of resilient international air freight volume throughput and the low base effect. Cumulative H1 21 revenue and NPAT have both completed 54% of our full-year forecast. The international cargo volume in Q2 21 jumped by 43% yoy to 44.9k tons, resulting in an accumulated H1 21 volume of 84.5k tons (+17% yoy), which was rather in line with our expectations by completing 50% of our full-year forecast for i...
- Son Nguyen
Saigon Cargo Service: Q3 20 – Gradual recovery post Covid peak
SCS's Q3 20 international cargo volume saw a rebound from the lows in Q2 20 thanks to effective response to the pandemic from Vietnam and some of its main Asian trading partners. Domestic volume in Q3 20 grew by 4% yoy thanks to Bamboo Airways' launch of a wide-body fleet and Vietnam’s full resumption of domestic flights. Q3 20 results showed a positive recovery despite remaining low compared with the same period last year. Accordingly, Q3 20 net revenue reached VND167bn (+16% qoq, -10% yoy)....
- Son Nguyen
Saigon Cargo Service: 8M 20 update and Q3 20 preview – Clearer recover...
We noticed positive signals in the first two months of Q3 20 when SCS's international cargo volume dropped only by 9.3% yoy in July and August compared with a decline of 27% yoy in Q2 20. In August 2020 exclusively, international cargo volume returned to 2019 levels, with 134,000 tons of cargo, a slight increase of 0.7% yoy. In 8M 20, SCS completed 69.2% of the full-year volume plan (completing 67.7% of the international volume plan, 73.9% of the domestic volume plan), which is better than ou...
- Tung Do
Saigon Cargo Service: Q2 20 results better than expected; raise TP by ...
SCS has shared some estimates about its Q2 FY 20 results. The company estimates that quarterly revenue will reach VND157bn (-17% yoy). Q2 FY 20’s EBIT is expected to decline by 27% yoy, in line with our expectations in May when we projected operating profit would decline by c30% yoy as a consequence of the considerable air cargo’s belly capacity crunch on international passenger flights following global travel bans. Meanwhile, a robust interest income is estimated to be more than double last...
- Tung Do
Saigon Cargo Service: Covid-19 concern drives the stock to attractive ...
FY2020 outlook – Covid-19 will temporarily hit profit growth Volume growth will be hurt as we expect volume contribution from China and Hong Kong, two markets that account for one-third of total flights operated by SCS’ airlines partners and 22% of total int’l cargo volume of the company in 2019, to be hit the most as a result of flights cut/reduction. We expect total Int’l cargo volume to modestly grow at 3.1% YoY in 2020 (-3.5 pps YoY). While revenue growth will decelerate in line with...
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