Buying Japanese Drug Store Names: Welcia (3141-JP) and Sundrug (9989-JP) Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure to two Japanese drug store stocks at current levels. Japan Remains Leadership. Likely owing to easy monetary policy from the Bank of Japan and the lowest inflation rate of all major economies, Japanese market indexes including the TOPIX, Nikkei 225, and TOPIX Small remain in 7+ month RS uptrends -- remain overweight. Japan has been a favorite country si...
Major Indexes Testing Resistance Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts, notably from a human and economic perspective (e.g., peaking infections/deaths in Italy & Spain, certain European governments making plans to ease lockdowns, and that US death projections were likely overestimated). Still, despite encouraging news and the relief rally in global equities, history tells us that this is a fairly standard bear market rally in terms of its magnitude, making us bel...
Global Equities Stumbling Again We continue to believe global equities (ACWI-US) are likely to test the recent low made on March 23, with an undercut of roughly 10% also in the cards. This expectation is supported by price action during prior major waterfall declines in past recessionary periods. It is also worth noting that 15-25% rallies are to be expected within bear markets -- potentially multiple. During 2001-2002 the S&P 500 had two 20-25% rallies, and both ended up failing and breaking t...
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