Minor estimate cuts after Q3

Weaker sales, strong cash flow

October data indicate slight downside to Q4e

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - 2025–2026e FCF story in sig...

Q3 proved to be a fairly lacklustre event, but we believe investors are shifting focus towards material earnings and FCF improvements in 2025–2026. Continued capex reductions following cancelled projects together with a strong pipeline should drive a 2023–2026e FCF CAGR of 20%. We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price, with a 5% EBIT cut offset by our raised FCF.

Q3 reinforced the margin expansion story

Sales and EBIT weaker in Q3

Long-term value, but limited near-term upside

Negative growth trend to continue in '25e

Stillfront Group (Buy, TP: SEK14.00) - Optimisation; what about growth...

We reiterate our BUY and SEK14 target price, having only fine-tuned our 2025e adj. EBIT forecast (-3%). We like the efficiency and cash flow focus, enabling healthy de-leveraging (2x net debt/EBITDA, including NTM earnouts). The company is set to host a CMD on 6 February, and we hope to get more clarity on the top-line growth outlook for 2025–2026, in addition to the recently announced optimisation activities.

Paying more to generate less

PW for Q3, weaker margins and growth

MTG Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates for FX and small increases in our 2024–2026 adj. EBITDA margin forecasts, awaiting a stronger mobile gaming market (we remain cautious on user acquisition costs in a market only growing by low-single digits, we believe). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK120 target price. MTG is due to report its Q3 results on 07:30 CET on 24 October.

September was a bit softer than expected

New CK3 expansion off to a good start

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Sector-leading FCF growth s...

We believe the market is increasingly willing to look past a 2024 plagued by cancellations and postponements and focus on the core portfolio and return to earnings growth for 2025e. While we have lowered our 2025e EBIT by 5%, we have increased our 2025–2026e FCF by 5–8% to account for the improving capex profile. We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price ahead of the Q3 results.

Stillfront Group (Buy, TP: SEK14.00) - Announced actions to improve

We keep our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK14 (16) ahead of Stillfront’s Q3 report, reflecting a c10% cut to our 2025e adj. EPS. The focus on efficiency should enable solid investments in user acquisition costs, with the ambition of returning to top-line growth, potentially also supported by a healthier market in the coming years. We estimate annual FCF of cSEK1bn for 2024–2025e. The results are due at 07:00 CET on 23 October.

Market share down slightly in August

Paradox Interactive AB: 1 director

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NBCUniversal Media, LLC - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships &...

Summary Marketline's NBCUniversal Media, LLC Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by NBCUniversal Media, LLC - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and...

Waiting for new games to improve growth