Takeaways from Nordnet tech briefing

Deposit rates cut by 0.25%

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data in April points to trading activity being down c7% MOM for Avanza and broadly flat for Nordnet. Based on this, we see upside to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 6 May.

Valuation fair given decelerating growth

Transaction income saved the day in Q1'24. EPS raised 1-3% for 2024-26e. Flat earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 18x – HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Higher activity swelling margins

Increased customer activity and the related boost to the brokerage margin helped Nordnet to record-high revenues and earnings in Q1. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 5–9% and our target price to SEK220 (212). We still like the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market, and Nordnet’s 2025e P/E of c19x. We reiterate our BUY.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Understated activity resurgence

We expect rising stock markets and customer activity to offset much of the NII headwind from looming rate cuts, and to drive positive consensus earnings revisions for 2024–2025e. Our 2024–2026 EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged, leaving the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c17x. With 10% upside potential to our unchanged SEK257 target price, we reiterate our HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK212.00) - Encouraging growth trends

Nordnet enjoyed rising net inflows and accelerated customer growth in Q1, likely aided by a positive stock-market performance and recovering household sentiment. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 2–6%, and our target price to SEK212 (190). We continue to see good value in the stock with a 2025e P/E below 20x, given attractive prospects for profitable growth in the Nordic savings markets, and reiterate our BUY.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Early bloom

Rising stock markets have continued to drive customer activity higher in Q1, with customers making more and larger trades. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 13–17% and our target price to SEK257(227). Trading at a 2025e P/E of c18x, we find the shares fairly valued and reiterate our HOLD.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data in February points to trading activity being up c10% MOM for Avanza and c4% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q1 brokerage income, the data appears balanced for Avanza, but suggests some downside risk for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Push to restore customer growth

We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 2-5% partly on higher costs, as Nordnet intends to up its marketing spend to restore customer growth to within its 10–15% target. However, we reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price, as we still find the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market attractive, at an undemanding value of just c15-17x P/E for 2024-2025e.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK227.00) - Hinged on the stock market

Facing NII headwinds from likely rate cuts starting in 2024e, a stock market bull run to revive brokerage and fund commissions is likely to be needed to buoy declining earnings in 2024–2025e. Our earnings forecasts for 2024–2025 are broadly intact; we reiterate our HOLD and SEK227 target price.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK227.00) - Green shoots

Avanza’s monthly statistics suggest that the rising stock market in Q4 translated into higher customer activity at year-end, boding well for activity recovery in 2024e in our view. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 2–7% and our target price to SEK227 (199). Despite some likely recovery in commissions, we expect muted earnings growth for 2024–2025 due to headwinds from likely Swedish rate cuts. Trading at 2024e P/E of c17.5x, we find the shares fairly valued, and reiterate our HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Lowered NII prospects

Lower interest rate expectations and negative deposit volume trends in Q4 have hit Nordnet’s NII outlook for the next two years, prompting us to cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 4–9%, and our target price to SEK190 (201). We saw several encouraging signs towards the end of Q4, however, with stabilising deposit volumes and rising customer activity in December. We continue to see good value in the stock at a 2024e P/E of 15x, given attractive prospects for long-term profitable growth in the Nordic saving...

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data in November points to trading activity being roughly unchanged MOM for Avanza and up 5–10% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q4 brokerage income, the November data suggests c15% downside risk for Avanza, with some potential upside for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 5 December.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK201.00) - Polishing NII

We look favourably on the potential divestment of the consumer lending business, which was announced with the Q3 results, as we believe this would further crystallise Nordnet’s low-risk banking model and support multiples expansion. We have raised 2024e adj. EPS by c3% and see c10% upside potential to the most recent consensus for 2024 earnings. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK201 (198).

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK199.00) - Into hibernation mode

Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and low customer activity, Q3 marked Avanza’s second-highest quarterly earnings ever and the highest quarterly net inflows since 2021. That said, we expect no earnings growth over 2024–2025 due to tough stock market conditions and the near-peak NII. We have raised our 2023–2025e EPS by 1–4% and our target price to SEK199 (196). We reiterate our HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK198.00) - Growth SAVEd by the NII

Growth SAVEd by the NII

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK196.00) - Autumn chills

Autumn chills

September web-activity insights

Web-activity data in September points to trading activity down c5% MOM for Avanza and roughly flat for Nordnet. This is in line with the platforms’ respective historical seasonality patterns. We see c15% potential downside risk to current consensus Q3 brokerage income for Avanza. The platforms are due to release their September statistics on 4 October.

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