Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

A surfer on the long-term tailwinds

August web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in August being up MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, suggesting a stronger uptick than usual seasonality. Consensus also seems to have overlooked a substantially increased number of trading days in Q3. Based on this, we see upside potential to consensus on Q3e brokerage income for both stocks (more for Avanza). The platforms are due to release their August statistics on 4 September.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK256.00) - Fund fees taking the torch

Facing NII headwinds from rate cuts, we expect fund fees to buoy the revenue trend – so were encouraged by Q2’s positive fund flow trends and stabilising fund margins. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 0-1% and our target price to SEK256 (254), and reiterate our BUY.

Fairly valued for decelerating growth

Transaction income and NII drove earnings beat in Q2'24. Underlying net earnings up by 1-2% for 2024-26e. Flattish earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 21x – HOLD.

Transaction income & NII drives Q2 beat

Q2 trading data better than expected

Activity and deposit development better than expected in Q2. Adj. EPS up by 3-4% driven by higher activity and NII. Growth to come down while valuation is up - HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK254.00) - Revenue momentum holding up

Q2 looks set to feature an all-time high pre-tax profit, as trading activity is at its highest level since the pandemic. NII should hold up well, with disciplined loan and deposit price adjustments since the Q2 rate cuts. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK254 (220) on 2-3% higher 2025–2026e EPS, now seeing more resilient NII during the rate-cutting cycle.

June web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in June being down MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, but somewhat stronger than the usual seasonality. We still see upside potential to consensus on Q2e brokerage income for both stocks. The platforms are due to release their June statistics on 3 July.

May web-activity insights

Web-activity data in May points to trading activity being roughly flat MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, but if anything, likely a little stronger for Avanza. Based on this, we continue to see upside potential to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their May statistics on 5 June.

Takeaways from Nordnet tech briefing

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data in April points to trading activity being down c7% MOM for Avanza and broadly flat for Nordnet. Based on this, we see upside to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 6 May.

Valuation fair given decelerating growth

Transaction income saved the day in Q1'24. EPS raised 1-3% for 2024-26e. Flat earnings growth in H2'24e for 12m fwd P/E of 18x – HOLD.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Higher activity swelling margins

Increased customer activity and the related boost to the brokerage margin helped Nordnet to record-high revenues and earnings in Q1. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 5–9% and our target price to SEK220 (212). We still like the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market, and Nordnet’s 2025e P/E of c19x. We reiterate our BUY.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK212.00) - Encouraging growth trends

Nordnet enjoyed rising net inflows and accelerated customer growth in Q1, likely aided by a positive stock-market performance and recovering household sentiment. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 2–6%, and our target price to SEK212 (190). We continue to see good value in the stock with a 2025e P/E below 20x, given attractive prospects for profitable growth in the Nordic savings markets, and reiterate our BUY.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data in February points to trading activity being up c10% MOM for Avanza and c4% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q1 brokerage income, the data appears balanced for Avanza, but suggests some downside risk for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Push to restore customer growth

We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 2-5% partly on higher costs, as Nordnet intends to up its marketing spend to restore customer growth to within its 10–15% target. However, we reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price, as we still find the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market attractive, at an undemanding value of just c15-17x P/E for 2024-2025e.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Lowered NII prospects

Lower interest rate expectations and negative deposit volume trends in Q4 have hit Nordnet’s NII outlook for the next two years, prompting us to cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 4–9%, and our target price to SEK190 (201). We saw several encouraging signs towards the end of Q4, however, with stabilising deposit volumes and rising customer activity in December. We continue to see good value in the stock at a 2024e P/E of 15x, given attractive prospects for long-term profitable growth in the Nordic saving...

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data in November points to trading activity being roughly unchanged MOM for Avanza and up 5–10% for Nordnet. Looking at consensus Q4 brokerage income, the November data suggests c15% downside risk for Avanza, with some potential upside for Nordnet. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 5 December.