Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK293.00) - Firing on all cylinders

Both Q1 revenues and PTP were record-high (both up 11% YOY), powered by strong brokerage income and resilient NII despite falling rates. Activity looks elevated going into Q2, and we see upside potential to NII consensus estimates. The total return profile remains attractive on our expectation of c10% long-term EPS growth and a c5% total yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK293 (274).

A prospering market leader

Q1 beat driven by strong transaction income

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK274.00) - High on market turbulence

Nordnet looks on track to post its highest profit ever in Q1e, with ongoing market volatility driving the highest trading activity since the pandemic. We continue to see attractive upside potential at a 2025–2026e P/E of c20x, given our expectation of >10% EPS growth from 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by c4% on lower stock market values, and our target price to SEK274 (286), but reiterate our BUY.

Thriving in the current environment

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK286.00) - German optionality at a modest cost

Nordnet unveiled plans to launch in Germany by H2 2026, targeting profitability by 2029; while the latter looks optimistic to us, the SEK100m guided additional annual costs appear modest given the option value inherent in the huge addressable savings market. Near-term, we see plenty of other growth drivers to accelerate inflows and return Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macro tailwinds for retail savers, strong stock markets, and the group’s intensified marketing efforts. We have ...

Awaiting a better entry

NII and transaction income stood out in Q4

Valuation not thrilling enough

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Fuel for higher growth in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to accelerate Nordnet’s inflows in 2025e and restore it to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including macroeconomic tailwinds for household savers, strong equity markets, intensified marketing efforts, and the recent launch of Livrente in Denmark. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK270 (255), and reiterate our BUY.

December web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity down c5% MOM in December for Avanza and Nordnet, although still high compared to before the US election. We continue to see upside potential on particularly Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to high FX fees from elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their December statistics on 7 January.

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

A surfer on the long-term tailwinds