reports
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – 2Q22 review: “Flight to quality”
TCB maintained its growth momentum in 2Q22 despite the limitation on the balance sheet growth capacity as a result of moderate initial credit growth quota. Total operating income grew 20% YoY on the back of solid fee income (43% YoY) while NIM was down sharply from the last quarter. PBT growth was 22% YoY. Risk cost control and non-funded income focused on delivering banking profitability and capital allocation efficiency. We revise earnings to reflect growth constraint in 2022. 2022 PBT is n...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – 1Q22 review: Well-controlled credit costs as a...
TCB delivered good growth in 1Q22 amid rising concern about the pressure on the NIM front, which extended both on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis. Total operating income grew 13% YoY despite solid net interest income and net fee income growth (32% YoY and 35% YoY respectively). TCB wrote down the value of its bond holding, which impacted the other non-interest income and solely made PBT down by 14% YoY. It should be reversed in the next quarter given the new decree. CIR was sta...
- Kiet Tran
- Lam Nguyen
- Tung Do
Vietnam Strategy: April 2022 – Tailwinds from AGM and earnings season
We remain positive on Vietnam equities in the long term due to the following structural catalysts: better domestic demand, companies’ earnings prospect, economic activities and FDI inflows on the back of broader economic reopening and fiscal stimulus package disbursement. These factors will provide an efficient buffer against higher, albeit in control, inflation and external risks namely geopolitical uncertainties and slowing global growth. We also see upside potential from the perspective of...
ACB ASIA COMMERCIAL BANK
FPT FPT
PVT PETROVIETNAM TRANSPORTATION CO.
ANV NAM VIET
PNJ PHU NHUAN JEWELRY JSC
MBB MILITARY COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
NT2 PETROVIETNAM POWER NHONTRACH 2
QNS QUANG NGAI SUGAR
VPB VIETNAM PROSPERITY JOINT-STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK
TCB VIETNAM TECHNOLOGICAL AND COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
- Kiet Tran
- Lam Nguyen
- Tung Do
Vietnam Strategy: March 2022 – Timing is key
The Russia-Ukraine war and US and European sanctions on Russia have raised concerns about the risk of a global supply chain disruption, especially since Russia and Ukraine are two major exporting countries in terms of metal products, fertilisers, agricultural products and oil and gas. This has pushed prices of commodities, which have been on a significant rally during the two years of the pandemic, once again back to its peak. Speculation on commodity prices has led to a rapid and strong incr...
VHC VINH HOAN
VCB JOINT STOCK COMMERCIAL BANK FOR FOREIGN TRADE OF VIETNAM
DRC DANANG RUBBER JOINT STOCK CO
PNJ PHU NHUAN JEWELRY JSC
MBB MILITARY COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
STK CENTURY SYNTHETIC FIBER
TCB VIETNAM TECHNOLOGICAL AND COMMERCIAL JOINT STOCK BANK
HND HAI PHONG THERMAL POWER
- Thanh Nguyen
TCB: 2022/2023 outlook – Expect solid growth amid headwinds
We see factors that will support NIM during the deposit rate increases. Implicit costs on CASA, including technology investments and promotion expenses should be considered when assessing the stability and growth potential of these non-maturity deposits. The company's 2021 operating results were in line with our forecasts. We make changes in the medium-term growth projections given the faster-than-expected improvement of CASA and yields. We also incorporate the company's ongoing diversificati...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – 2022/2023 outlook: expect solid growth amid he...
· We see factors to support NIM during the deposit rate raises. Implicit costs on CASA, including technology investments and promotion expenses should be considered when assessing the stability and growth potential of these non-maturity deposits. · The 2021 operating results were in line with our forecasts. We make changes in the medium-term growth projections given the faster-than-expected improvement of CASA and yields. We also incorporate the on-going diversification ...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – 4Q21 earnings review: beating expectations sli...
· 4Q21 earnings modestly beat our forecasts by 4% (VND 6.1 trillion versus VND 5.9 trillion in PBT) mainly due to robust NIM and strong NFI growth. As a result, TCB reported 2021 PBT at VND 23,238 bn (USD 1.0 bn, 47% YoY), exceeding our prior estimates of VND 23,010 bn). · The extensive growth in 4Q21 and the whole year results came from high credit growth quota, NIM expansion, the rise of bancassurance, settlement and securities segments. Asset quality has been well mai...
- Thanh Nguyen
TCB: Capitalising on competitive advantages
The 2021-2025 strategy marks an acceleration phase capitalising on TCB's competitive advantages: invested infrastructure, thick capital base and strong ecosystem. Its firmly established funding structure, which is backed by a leading retail franchise focusing on high profile customers, is the foundation for cross-board expansion in various scenarios. Enabled by the potential recovery of economic backdrop in 2022, TCB has a solid foundation to deliver extensive organic growth and continuous i...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – Capitalizing on the advantages
· The 2021-2025 strategy marks an acceleration phase capitalizing on competitive advantages: invested infrastructure, thick capital base and strong ecosystem. Its firmly established funding structure which is backed by a leading retail franchise focusing on high-profile customers is the foundation for cross-board expansion in various scenarios. · Enabled by the potential recovery of economic backdrop in 2022, TCB has solid foundation to deliver extensive organic growth a...
- Son Tran
Analyst Pin-board TCB – Hesitation amid outstanding 3Q21 performance
The 3Q21 results slightly beat our estimates as TCB posted strong growth across the board. Although the pandemic situation in 3Q21 lies within the scenarios of the portfolio stress review conducted at the end of 2Q21, the insignificant deterioration in the asset quality surprises us. Our concern arises from the proactive slowdown in the credit cost ratio during this uncertain period despite TCB’s good provisioning buffers ahead of the recent disruption. However, we think there has not...
- Son Tran
Company Report - TCB: ACCELERATING GROWTH ON SOLID FOUNDATIONS
We rate TCB as a leading retail bank focusing on providing convenient, advanced and quick financial solutions and services to Affluent and Mass Affluent customers. TCB has comparative advantages in mortgages, retail deposits, payments, card and investment banking services. With a solid capital buffer and competitive lending rates based on low funding costs, TCB has high credit growth potential. Combined with the ability to stabilize an efficient NIM and sustain good efficiency, these are robust...
- Thanh Nguyen
TCB: Maintaining competitive advantages
CASA ratio slightly decreased in Q1 21 due to seasonality of corporate customers. The drop in deposit funding costs in 2020 and Q1 21 was attributed more to lower interest rate than the higher CASA ratio. NPL ratio is expected to be higher towards the year-end. However, TCB is projected not to suffer significant increase in credit costs. We maintain our target price of VND50,900/share and a Buy recommendation. This translates to an upside of 17% from the closing price of 4 May 2021. 2021 OUTL...
- Thanh Nguyen
TCB: Maintaining competitive advantages
CASA ratio slightly decreased in Q1 21 due to seasonality of corporate customers. The drop in deposit funding costs in 2020 and Q1 21 was attributed more to lower interest rate than the higher CASA ratio. NPL ratio is expected to be higher towards the year-end. However, TCB is projected not to suffer significant increase in credit costs. We maintain our target price of VND50,900/share and Buy recommendation. This translates to an upside of 17% from the closing price of 4 May 2021. 2021 OUT...
- Thanh Nguyen
TCB: Ambitious technology-enabled growth
TCB's 2020 results beat our expectation by 2%. 2021 projected PBT is revised up to VND18,870bn (US$820mn, +19%), lower than the proposed PBT in the annual plan (VND19,800bn). The company's 2021-2025 plan is ambitious. We revise our estimates to match the strategic plan, but our projected NFI to TOI ratio is not in line with the target. We raise the target price to VND50,900/share and maintain our Buy recommendation. This translates to an upside of 21% from the closing price of 7 April 2021.
- Thanh Nguyen
Vietnam banking sector: Update on credit market share
The credit market has seen changes in the last five years. Some of those are expected to be sustained in the future. Most of the state-owned banks underperformed the sector in the last five years on credit expansion. Private banks on the other hand sustained high credit growth and diversified into corporate bonds when loan demand weakened. However, this does not reflect a change in risk appetite yet. The gap between private banks and state-owned banks will keep narrowing, but the pace will s...
- Thanh Nguyen
Vietnam banks: Credit growth expectation for 2021
Covid has had a strong impact on the economy by negatively affecting loan demand, financial capability of customers and the quality of assets. The State Bank of Vietnam has directed credit institutions to support the economy by measures such as lowering interest rates, restructuring debt, rescheduling payment period, exemptions and maintaining debt group. These timely actions at the beginning 2020 — when the pandemic broke out — helped maintain positive economic growth and promises a recovery...
- Anh Nguyen
TCB: Q1 20 – NII to maintain strong momentum
TCB's business performance in Q1 was good as the impact of Covid-19 is yet to be reflected fully. Results in the next quarters are expected to be hit harder. Setting aside the concentration risk of lending to real estate-related sectors, we appreciate the bank’s solid balance sheet, with a focus on lower risk segments, such as high-income group, working capital and collateralisation. A significant portion of Q1 earnings was spent to make more room for NPL and LLR, as a precaution for probable....
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