Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Stockholm continue to stand out

Divestments drive down LTV and EC

Lowering its sights

Taking down its ambitions with new targets although we appreciate the lowered pay-out ratio. Higher probability of a DPS already for 2024.

Major vacancy to hit in 2025

Rec. PTP 4% below ABGSCe. CEPS est. down by 3-4% for '25-'26e. Share trading at ~10% premium on '25e P/CEPS.

Divestments to come in Q2'24

Rental and transaction markets picking up

Optimistic outlook for vacancy and targeting net LTV of 50% in early 2025. Peers are more forward-leaning, HOLD reiterated.

Awaiting news of Polish acquistions

Quarterly miss brings down CEPS 2024e by -4%. Awaiting news on Polish acquisition agenda. Share trading at 18% discount to sector.

Wallenstam AB: 1 director

A director at Wallenstam AB bought 16,000 shares at 47.180SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Enjoy the ride

We trim estimates somewhat. Reassuring outlook for new construction. Potential for >15% share price CAGR until 2026. BUY.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Enough is enough

The FABG share is down 25% YTD vs. the sector at -7%. Valuation support from both NAV and CEPS. Up to HOLD (Sell), TP of SEK 90 reiterated.

A bit on the soft side

Catena (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Time to put the money to work

The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings...

Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Rental market concerns remain

We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by c6–4% on rising market interest rates, following a soft Q1 report, where focus was on a further weakening Stockholm office rental market. We found net lettings disappointing at SEK-36m and the minor vacancy rate uptick soft. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK85 (100).

Pandox (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Q1 in line, fairly valued

Q1 FFOps was in line with our estimate but below Infront consensus. While we have made only minor forecast changes, following the recent share performance and as the stock is trading close to our target price, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK175 target price.

Like clockwork

Solid across the board

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Eyeing project starts once again

We consider the Q1 results neutral, and, adjusting for a JV one-off, we were in line on PFPM. Wallenstam is looking to start a development project in Q2 (only the second since Q3 2022), and management stated that rents have risen considerably in new developments and that it will only start projects in the best locations to meet demand right now. We consider the valuation demanding on cash earnings, and reiterate our SELL and our SEK40 target price.