Stendörren Fastigheter AB: 1 director

A director at Stendörren Fastigheter AB bought 2,497 shares at 180.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Clear increase in vacancies

Castellum AB: 2 directors

A director at Castellum AB bought 3,633 shares at 126.950SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 42/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Balder (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Uptick in investment activities

Q1 PFPM was in line with our forecast but 3% below consensus. We believe the negative share price reaction was due to: 1) a minor uptick in NIBD despite the recent equity raise for Balder and Sato; 2) LFL rental growth of 3.7% YOY, below most peers’; and 3) cash flow down sequentially due in investing activities. We have cut our 2024–2025e FFOps by 5–7% on interest rates, and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to SEK70.

Positive comments on liquidity

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 3 May 2024.

Castellum (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Unconvincing Q1 results

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and trimmed our target price to SEK135 (136) following rather soft Q1 results that showed a risk in vacancy adding concern about the rental market outlook. We consider the stock fully valued, given only an 10% NAV discount (adjusted for Entra at market value) and its soft FFOPS growth outlook.

On track

European occupancy continues up. Minor estimate changes for '25e-'26e. Trading above key peers, we reiterate HOLD.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Stockholm continue to stand out

Divestments drive down LTV and EC

Lowering its sights

Taking down its ambitions with new targets although we appreciate the lowered pay-out ratio. Higher probability of a DPS already for 2024.

Major vacancy to hit in 2025

Rec. PTP 4% below ABGSCe. CEPS est. down by 3-4% for '25-'26e. Share trading at ~10% premium on '25e P/CEPS.

Divestments to come in Q2'24

Rental and transaction markets picking up

Optimistic outlook for vacancy and targeting net LTV of 50% in early 2025. Peers are more forward-leaning, HOLD reiterated.

Awaiting news of Polish acquistions

Quarterly miss brings down CEPS 2024e by -4%. Awaiting news on Polish acquisition agenda. Share trading at 18% discount to sector.

Wallenstam AB: 1 director

A director at Wallenstam AB bought 16,000 shares at 47.180SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Enjoy the ride

We trim estimates somewhat. Reassuring outlook for new construction. Potential for >15% share price CAGR until 2026. BUY.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.