CSP’s 1Q25 headline net profit of US$83.9m (+33.5% yoy) was deemed broadly in line with our expectations, at 28.9% of our full-year forecast, as container throughout is likely to slow down in the rest of 2025 amid the escalated US-China tariff war. Overall, the negative impacts on CSP should be manageable given its mid-single-digit percentage revenue exposure to the China-US trade. CSP currently trades at 6.9x/6.7x 2025/26F core PE and offers yields of 5.9%/6.1%. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$5...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
CSP’s 2024 core net profit of US$301.8m (+4.9% yoy) was in line with our expectation, at 101.2% of our forecast. The miss at the operating profit level was more than offset by strong JV/associate performance and interest cost savings from debt refinancing. Management guides CSP’s portfolio equity throughput to grow in line with the industry average at a low-single-digit growth rate in 2025. CSP is trading at 7.6x/7.2x 2025/26F PE and offers decent yields of 5.4%/5.6%. Maintain BUY. Target price:...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.78/Target: HK$5.90) CSP’s 2024 core net profit of US$301.8m (+4.9% yoy) was in line with our expectation, at 101.2% of our forecast. The miss at the operating profit level was more than offset by strong JV/associate performance and interest cost savings from debt refinancing. Management guides CSP’s portfolio equity throughput to grow in line with the industry average at a low-single-digit growth rate in 2025. CSP is trading at 7.6x...
GREATER CHINA Results COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.78/Target: HK$5.90) 2024: Core earnings in line; expect low single digit throughput growth in 2025. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb37.00/Target: Rmb50.00) 2024: Smooth progress in R&D promises bright long-term outlook. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company (3692 HK/BUY/HK$20.10/Target:HK$29.00) 2024: Results beat; strong growth momentum continues. Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$167.60/Target: HK$216.00) ...
The latest economic indicators indicate a tepid global trade outlook in the near term. We expect 2025 to be a volatile year for the shipping and ports sector, subject to a number of geopolitical and industry events. While many of these events point to downside risks, a potential port strike in the US, the most imminent event to watch out for, poses upside risks for the container shipping segment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. Maintain HOLD on CSH.
CSP’s 3Q24 core net profit of US$81.1m (+5.0% yoy) was in line with our expectation; 9M24 core earnings accounted for 75.4% of our full-year forecast. This is a respectable performance achieved against the ongoing Red Sea disruption which has continued to affect volume for some of CSP’s terminals. CSP currently trades at a cheap 2024/25F PE of 7.0x/6.8x and offers decent yields of 5.7%/6.0% in 2024/25 respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$6.18.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$87.00/Target: HK$104.50) ASMPT’s Semi solution business registered better-than-expected revenue and margins in 3Q24 thanks to robust advanced packaging demand, which led to a 10% beat vs our operating profit estimates, although reported net profit ended up below expectations due to forex loss. ASMPT will remain a key beneficiary of the AI investment trend, and we recommend accumulating after its recent share price correction. Maintain BUY. Target p...
The latest economic indicators pointed to a weakening global trade outlook, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs standing at sub-50 levels, and their new export order sub-indices sinking deeper in the contractionary territory. Ocean freight rate futures prices have rebounded lately amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the US East Coast port strike, though halted for now, remains a key uncertainty. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. CSH is downgraded to HOLD.
CSP’s 1H24 core net profit of US$62.9m (+5.5% yoy) was in line with our expectation, at 49.1% of our full-year forecast. This steady performance is achieved despite several unfavourable factors, including: a) the ongoing Red Sea attacks which continue to affect volume for some of CSP’s terminals, and b) unfavourable forex translation. CSP currently trades at a cheap 2024/25F PE of 7.4x/7.0x and offers decent yields of 5.2%/5.7% in 2024/25 respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$6.44.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baosteel (600019 CH/BUY/Rmb5.85/Target: Rmb7.90) Baosteel reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb4,554.6m (-0.2% yoy), representing 34% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Steel products’ gross margin rose to 3.7% (+0.7ppt yoy). Differentiated products’ sales volume increased to Rmb15.09m (+17.2% yoy), remaining as the key earnings contributor during the industry downcycle. Steel products’ export volume grew to 3.05m (+2% yoy), on track to achieve the annual target...
The latest economic indicators for global trade outlook weakened slightly, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs dipping mom and their new export order subindices below 50. Ocean freight rates have peaked, with freight rate futures prices having retreated in the past month amid the Gaza truce talks. Nevertheless, risk-reward for shipping companies is more favourable after the recent share price drops. Maintain MARTKET WEIGHT. OOIL and CSH (upgraded to BUY) offer FY24 yields of about 17%.
Chinese equities fell more than 2% in July, losing initial gains after the Third Plenum did not lead to new stimulus policies. For August, 1H24 results would be the catalyst for most stocks, and we expect earnings of EV names to be under pressure given the intense price competition. We add Cosco Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and SELL on WuXi Bio and XPeng to diversify away our market risk exposure.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
The latest economic indicators for global trade remain mixed with some negative tilt. With the unabated Red Sea attacks, ocean freight futures prices rose further in the past weeks, reflecting the market’s expectations that upbeat freight rates may extend into 1H25. In line with the updated futures price curve, we raise earnings forecasts for our container shipping coverage by over 40% in FY24 and over 100% in FY25 (from a low base). We upgrade OOIL to BUY on its better dividend prospect (FY24 y...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Market Strategy 2H24: Building blocks in place. Results Meituan (3690 HK/BUY/HK$112.70/Target: HK$130.00) 1Q24: Earnings beat. ISHT margin to stabilise in 2Q24; upgrade To BUY. INDONESIA Results Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ/HOLD/Rp2,460/Target: Rp2,500) 1Q24: EBITDA below expectations with potential improvement ahead. MALAYSIA Sector Gaming ...
Rebound on policy clarity. The MSCI China index has made impressive gains of 23.3% since bottoming out in late-Jan 24, bringing ytd performance to 8.2%. This is a remarkable turnaround, as Asia ex-Japan is only up 6.9% ytd. This comes after the government gave clear indications that it remains firmly behind the healthy development of capital markets and efforts to revive the property market will no longer be clouded by concerns of re-igniting the bubble. Further re-rating hinges on real est...
The latest economic indicators for global trade were still mixed but with some positive tilt. Driven by a tight capacity supply-demand balance, prices of Jun/Aug/Oct 24 futures contracts for Shanghai-Europe freight rose 24%/30%/24% from our last update, pointing to even stronger near-term earnings for container shipping. We deem the risk-reward of container shipping stocks largely balanced but think near-term market sentiments may stay strong. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD on raised earnings and dividend...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Sector Shipping and Ports – China Further strengthened freight rates raising container shipping earnings outlook. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD; Maintain BUY on CSP and CMP, and HOLD on CSH. Update KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$45.00/Target: HK$55.00) ...
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