Money Forward (3994 JT) and Freee's (4478 JT) market caps have been converging as the latter starts a recovery from all-time lows. Freee's earlier shift to operating profitability has attracted investor attention, as MF guides for a deceleration in sales growth for its FY25. However, over the long-term, MF is looking more attractive.
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
18 months after many Japanese mid-sized enterprise software stocks were sold off, many remain more than 50% lower than their peaks. And yet, these companies continue to grow strong sales. In this report, we take a look at 11 of these companies and at the extent to which their operating performances are reflected in their current valuations.
At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks. Table of Contents Overview 3 Background: 4 Japan’s Economic Outlook 5 Ja...
According to Bloomberg, Japan’s six listed mid-tier IT vendors – that’s NRI (4307 JT), CTC (4739 JT), TIS (3626 JT), SCSK (9719 JT), Biprogy [was Nihon Unisys] (8056 JT) and NS Solutions (2327 JT) – reported 2Q FY22 orders of ¥716bil (+12.4% YoY). The YoY increase, down slightly from the +13.1% YoY growth figure seen in the 1Q FY22 period, Pelham Smithers looks at the relative performance of mid-tier IT vendor orders.
Despite the sharp 13% decline in the shares post the release of Money Forward’s FY22 Q2 results, coming in with a minor sales miss and a larger-than-expected operating loss, the sales miss was not one we are particularly concerned about and the rise in advertising costs had been already flagged. Analyst Lindsay Whipp thinks the company is on the right track but that a close eye needs to be kept on rising personnel costs.
The Japanese stock market is in an interesting phase where the Bank of Japan is supporting the bond market rather than the stock market. While this phase lasts, the dollar should remain above ¥120/$ and perhaps strengthen further against the yen. This report looks at what this phase might mean for the Japanese stock market as a whole, and for stock selection. The PSA Focus List has also been updated.
Japanese SaaS and small to mid-sized IT company stock prices have taken huge hits since the market sell off started in mid-November. We take a look at a range of companies and how attractive they are looking now valuations have tumbled.
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