Report

PSA Market Strategy: Japan Perspective for 2023

At the beginning of every year we publish our PSA Perspective, a report intended as a long shelf-life look at the year ahead. This year Pelham Smithers discusses Japan's economy, the outlook for the stock market, and some stand-out themes and developments for the year. These include the digital yen and the demise of live action entertainment in Japan. We also update our noted PSA Focus List of stocks.

Table of Contents
Overview 3
Background: 4
Japan’s Economic Outlook 5
Japan’s Quietly Booming Domestic Demand Situation 5
Japan Changes Monetary Policy (a Small Notch) 7
What is Japan’s “True” Inflation Rate? 10
Outlook for the Japanese Stock Market in 2023: 12
The Base Case 12
The Elephants in the Trading Room 14
Themes & Developments to Look Out for in 2023: 17
Introduction of the Digital Yen 17
Normalization of Smart-Device-to Smart-Device Payment 19
CBDCs for Global Payment Systems 19
CBDCs and Japan’s Financial System 22
Proof of Transactions 22
Digital Yen Impact on Japan’s Monetary Base 23
CBDCs and the Underground Economy 23
The Demise of “Live Action” Entertainment in Japan 24
Growing Domination of Video Game Animation in Movies and New Media 25
Stock Selection & The PSA Focus List 26
The Case for a Domestic-Oriented Portfolio 26
The Japanese Gambler and the Retail Arm of Japanese Brokers 27
Top-Down Winners 27
Tech Shares to Own in Tokyo When Tech’s Dead 29
Changes to PSA Focus List 31
PSA Focus List Q1 2023 32
Appendix I: 33
Use of EV/OP For Valuations 33
Underlyings
Activision Blizzard Inc.

Activision Blizzard is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services. The company's segments are: Activision Publishing, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the console platform; Blizzard Entertainment, Inc., which is a global developer and publisher of interactive software products and entertainment content, particularly for the personal computers platform; and King Digital Entertainment, which is a global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services, particularly for the mobile platform, including for Google Inc.'s Android and Apple Inc.'s iOS.

Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

COSMOS Pharmaceutical Corporation

Cosmos Pharmaceutical is engaged in the operation of a chain of drug stores "Discount Drug Cosmos." Co. maintains 827 stores in Kansai, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu regions as of May 31 2017. Co.'s principal products are medicine, oral care products, nursing care products, dietary supplements, nutritional food products, cosmetics, hair care products, bath and body products, baby products, detergent, insecticides, toiletries, gardening products, automobile accessories, clothing, processed food products, dairy food products, snacks, non-alcohol and alcohol beverages, and cigarettes.

DENSO CORPORATION

Denso and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobile electronic, electrical parts, and other components. Co.'s principal business segments are powertrain control systems, electronic systems, thermal systems, information and safety systems, small motors, industrial systems and consumer products. Co.'s principal products include starters, alternators, engine management systems, components for gasoline, diesel and electric hybrid vehicles, engine ECUs, hybrid ICs, air conditioners, radiators, remote keyless entry controllers, car navigation systems, car-mounted ETC devices, motors, bar code handy scanners and industrial robots.

East Japan Railway Company

East Japan Railway is mainly engaged in the transportation business. Co. operates railway routes covering mainly in the Kanto area and the Tohoku area totaling of 7,457.3 km of railway with 1,665 stations, 11,506 standard rolling stocks and 1,370 bullet Train rolling stocks as of Mar 31 2017. Co. establishes commercial space in the railway stations and operates restaurants, retail stores, cafes, convenience stores and shopping centers; and leases office buildings located in the railway stations and surrounding areas. Co. is also engaged in hotel business, advertising agency, travel operations, wholesale, truck delivery, information processing, cleaning, as well as credit card business.

FAST RETAILING CO. LTD.

Fast Retailing is engaged in the control and management of overall group activities as a holding company. Co., through its subsidiaries, is mainly involved in the operation of chain stores, selling casual clothing and accessories at reasonable prices, called "UNIQLO" throughout Japan as well as in overseas. Co., through its subsidiaries, is also engaged in the planning, manufacture and sale of clothing under the brand names of "GU," "Theory," "COMPTOIR DES COTONNIERS," "PRINCESSE tam.tam" and "J Brand." In addition, Co. is engaged in the leasing of real estate.

GMO Financial Gate (4051 JT)

Kadokawa Corporation

KADOKAWA DWANGO is a holding company. Co., through its affiliates, operates in three business segments: web services, publication, and video and game. Co. is engaged in the operation of a video service called "niconico;" the planning and operation of various events; the leasing of event venues; the mobile contents distribution; the publication and sale of paper-based books, e-books, and magazines; the sale of Internet advertising and packaged software; the planning, production, and distribution of movies; the sale of the copyrights; the e-commerce sales of character merchandise and pop idol CDs; the sale of CDs featuring content created from anime and "niconico," and the education business.

Keyence Corporation

KEYENCE and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacture and sale of factory automation ("FA") sensors, opto-electronic equipment and related systems, and high technology hobby products. Co.'s principal products are fiber optic sensor, laser sensor, contact sensor, ultrasonic sensor, pressure sensor, photoelectric sensor, laser sensor (compact), RGB color sensor, proximity sensor and temperature sensor; machine vision, inductive displacement sensor, image measurement system, laser displacement sensor, optical micrometer and digital microscope; bar-code reader, laser marker, programmable logic controller; and safety light curtain.

Komatsu Ltd.

Komatsu is engaged in the manufacture and sale of construction and mining equipment, utility equipment and industrial machinery. Co. operates in three business segments. Construction Machinery and Vehicles segment provides wheel loaders, hydraulic excavators, mini excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, forklift trucks, forwarders, feller bunchers, harvesters, among others. Retail Finance segment is engaged in the provision of financing services for construction and mining equipment. Industrial Machinery and Other segment offers laser cutting machines, plasma cutting machines, press brakes, shears, transfer machines, machining centers, crankshaft millers, among others. .

Lloyds Banking Group plc

Lloyds Banking Group is a financial services provider. Co.'s main business activities are retail and commercial banking, general insurance and long-term savings. Co.'s Lending products are mortgages, credit cards, personal and business loans; Deposit products include taking Current accounts and savings accounts; Insurance products are home insurance, motor insurance and protection; Commercial financing products includes term lending, debt capital markets and private equity; and Risk management products includes interest rate hedging, currency and liquidity. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had total assets of £812.1 million and total deposits of £448.0 million.

M3 Inc.

M3 is mainly engaged in the operation of medical-related Internet websites "MR-kun" and "m3.com" for health-care professional. Along with its affiliates, Co. operates in five business segments. Co. is engaged in the development and provision of marketing support services to medical professional, pharmaceutical companies, medical equipment companies and consumers; the provision of support services utilizing Co.'s support management system called "CapTool" for clinical researches; the provision of sales, marketing and support services as well as research services in overseas; and the development, sale and support of electronic health record system; and the consignment of sales and marketing.

MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. The company's solutions enabling consumers to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The company provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard?, Maestro? and Cirrus?. The company is a multi-rail network that provides customers one partner to turn to for their domestic and cross-border payment needs. The company has additional payment capabilities that include automated clearing house transactions. The company also provides offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing.

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corporation

Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings is a holding company. Co., through its subsidiaries and associated companies are engaged in the manufacture and sale of chemical products, plastic products, and pharmaceuticals. Performance Products segment provides optical films, acetyl, high performance films, aqua solutions, high performance engineering plastics, fibers & textile, advanced polymers, high performance chemicals, and lithium-ion battery materials. Chemicals segment offers methyl methacrylate (MMA), petrochemicals, and carbon products. Industrial Gases segment supplies industrial gasses to a wide range of industries. Health Care segment manufactures and sells ethical pharmaceuticals.

Mitsubishi Corporation

Mitsubishi is a trading company. Co. is engaged in the manufacture and market a wide range of products, including energy, metals, machinery, chemicals and living essentials through Co.'s domestic and overseas network. Co. is involved in diverse businesses by actively investing in areas, such as natural resources development and infrastructure; and the finance businesses. Co. is engaged in diversified businesses, such as creating new business models in the fields of new energy and the environment. Co.'s principal business segments are global environmental & infrastructure, industrial finance logistics & development, energy, metals, machinery, chemicals, living essentials, and others.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is a manufacturer of heavy machinery. Along with its affiliates, Co. is engaged in the design, manufacture, installation, sale and after-sales services of boilers, turbines, diesel engines, power generation facilities, passenger ships, liquefied natural gas ("LNG") ships, liquefied petroleum gas ("LPG") ships, container ships, oil tankers, offshore structure, civil aircraft and aero engine, defense equipment, space equipment, waste treatment systems, traffic systems, cranes, forklifts, construction and agricultural machinery, and others. Co. is also engaged in the sale, purchase and leasing of properties and the printing business.

Mitsubishi Motors Corporation

Mitsubishi Motors and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of motor vehicles including passenger cars as well as component parts. Co. is engaged in the development, design, manufacture, assembly, sale and purchase, import and other transactions relating to automobiles, component parts and replacement parts, agricultural machinery and industrial engines; the sale and purchase of used automobiles; the sale of measuring equipment; and acting as insurance agents in accordance with laws relating to property damage insurance and to automobile damage indemnity insurance. In addition, Co. is involved in the provision of automobile leasing and sales finance services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is financial groups with total assets of Y297,185,019 million as of Mar. 31, 2017. Co. is the holding company for The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ NICOS Co., Ltd., and other companies. As a bank holding company, Co. is regulated under the Banking Law of Japan. Its services include commercial banking, trust banking, securities, credit cards, consumer finance, asset management, leasing and many more fields of financial services.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc.

Mizuho Financial Group is a financial holding company with total assets of Y204,255,642 million as of Mar 31 2018. Retail & Business Banking Company provides financial services for individual customers and SMEs. Corporate & Institutional Company provides financial services for large corporations, financial institutions and public corporations. The Global Corporate Company provides financial services for Japanese overseas affiliated corporate customers and non-Japanese corporate customers. Global Markets Company invests in financial products with market risk. The Asset Management Company develops financial products and provides financial services for individuals and institutional investors.

Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd.

Murata Manufacturing is mainly engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of electronic components and modules in Japan, North America and certain other Asian and European countries. Co.'s products are sold mainly to electronics companies for use as components in telecommunication, computer, audio, video, automotive electronics and other electronic products. Co. is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of electronic parts and related products, including components for capacitors and piezoelectric products, as well as modules products; the provision of welfare services, personnel services, education and training services, as well as the leasing and management of real estate.

Nidec Corporation

NIDEC and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the design, development, manufacture and marketing of small precision motors, mid-size motors, machinery, electronic and optical components, and other products. Co.'s principal products are spindle motors for hard disk drives, motors for optical disk drives, small precision fans and other small motors; mid-size motors; test systems, measuring equipment, power transmission equipment, factory automation systems, card readers and industrial robots; camera shutters, camera lens units, switches, trimmer potentiometers, motor driven actuator units, processing and precision plastic mold products; and auto parts and pivot assemblies.

Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.

Nissan Motor, along with its subsidiaries and associated companies, is engaged in the manufacture and sale of vehicles, marine products and related parts; and the provision of finance services throughout world. Co.'s principal businesses are automobile and sales financing. Automobile segment manufactures electric vehicles, sedans, sport coupes, compact cars, mini vans, SUVs, pick-up trucks, and station wagons. Co.'s principal brand names include "Leaf," "Infiniti," "Murano," "Altima," "Maxima," "Sentra," "Quest," "Cedric," "Days Roox," "e-NV200," "Note e-Power," "Caravan," "Wingroad," "GT-R," "Farilady Z, among others. Sales Financing segment provides sales financing services..

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.

Samsung Electronics is engaged in the manufacture and sale of electronic goods, communication products, semiconductors, telecommunication equipment, home appliances and other similar products. Co.'s products are mobile phones, MP3 Players, DVD players, video equipment, including Blu-Ray, TVs and VCRs; household appliances, including microwave ovens, refrigerators, home air conditioners, washing machines, ultrasonic humidifiers, dehumidifiers, vacuum cleaners and other small electrical goods; audio equipment, including semiconductors, information systems, and computers; miscellaneous parts; other products, including automatic vending machines, refrigerated display cases and electric tools.

SoftBank Corp.

SoftBank Group Corp.

SoftBank Group is a holding company. Domestic Telecommunications business provides mobile communication services, mobile devices, broadband services to retail customers, and telecom services to corporate customers in Japan. Sprint business provides mobile communication services and fixed-line telecommunication services in the U.S. Yahoo Japan business operates Internet-based advertising and e-commerce business. Distribution business distributes mobile devices overseas, and sells software and mobile device accessories in Japan. ARM business designs microprocessor intellectual property and related technology. SoftBank Vision Fund & Delta Fund business is engaged in the investment activities.

Sony Corporation

Sony is engaged in the development, design, production, manufacture, offer and sale of various kinds of electronic equipment, instruments and devices for consumer, professional and industrial markets such as network services, game hardware and software, televisions, audio and video recorders and players, still and video cameras, mobile phones, and semiconductors. Co. is engaged in the development, production, manufacture, and distribution of recorded music and the management and licensing of the words and music of songs as well as the production and distribution of animation titles. Co. is also engaged in the production, acquisition and distribution of motion pictures and television.

Square Enix Holdings Co. Ltd.

Square Enix Holdings is a holding company that is mainly engaged in the entertainment industry. Co., through its subsidiaries, operates in four business segments. The Digital Entertainment business is engaged in the design, development, sale, licensed sale and operation of digital entertainment contents focusing on computer games. The Amusement segment is engaged in the operation of amusement facilities, the design, development, manufacture, sale and rental of amusement equipment. The Publishing segment is involved in the publication of comic magazines, books and game related books. The Rights Property segment is involved design, production, sale and grant of secondary works.

SUBARU CORP

SUBARU and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of automobiles and aerospace-related equipment. The Automobiles segment is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of passenger cars and their components under the name of "SUBARU." The Aerospace segment is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of commercial and defense aircrafts, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and their components. In addition, Co. is engaged in the manufacture, sale and repair of generators, engine-equipped machinery, agricultural machinery, construction machinery and their components; the leasing of real estate; and the manufacture and sale of temporary houses.

Sumitomo Chemical Co. Ltd.

Sumitomo Chemical is a chemical manufacturing company. Co.'s business is comprised of 5 sectors: Petrochemicals & Plastics Sector, Energy & Functional Materials Sector, IT-related Chemicals Sector, Health & Crop Sciences Sector, Pharmaceuticals Sector and Others. Co. is engaged in the manufacture and sale of inorganic and organic chemicals, synthetic fiber materials, metal acrylate, alumina and aluminum products, petrochemical, synthetic resin and rubber products, optical goods, color filters, materials for semiconductors, electronic materials, agrochemicals, fertilizers, agricultural materials, pesticide, dietary additives, pharmaceuticals and radioactive diagnostic products.

Sumitomo Corporation

Sumitomo is a trading company conducting commodity transactions in all industries utilizing worldwide networks. Co. is engaged in the trading of range of goods and commodities; the planning, coordination and operation of urban and industrial infrastructure projects; consulting in areas such as system integration and technology development; transportation and logistics; investing in a variety of industries ranging from biotechnology to communications; developing natural resources; manufacturing and processing products such as steel products and textiles; developing and managing real estate; and operating retail stores.

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.

Takeda Pharmaceutical is a public company incorporated in Japan. Co. and its subsidiaries is a global pharmaceutical group and is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products, over-the-counter (“OTC”) medicines and quasi-drug consumer products, and other healthcare products. Co.'s principal pharmaceutical products include medicines in the following therapeutic areas: gastroenterology, oncology and neuroscience.

TDK Corporation

TDK is a manufacturer of recording media, ferrite products and recording device products, and a producer of inductor, ceramic capacitor, magnet, HDD head and other components. Co.'s principal business segments are passive components, sensor application products, magnetic application products, film application products and others. Co.'s principal products include ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, inductive devices, high-frequency components, piezoelectric materials and circuit protection components, sensors, HDD head suspension, recording devices, power supplies and magnets, and mechatronics.

Toyota Motor Corp.

Toyota Motor is an automobile manufacturer. Co. is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of sedans, minivans, compact cars, sport-utility vehicles, trucks and related parts and accessories throughout the world. Co. provides financing, vehicle and equipment leasing and certain other financial services primarily to its dealers and their customers to support the sales of vehicles and other products manufactured by Co. Co.'s principal business segments are automotive operations, financial services operations and other operations. Co. sells its vehicles in approximately 190 countries and regions, and markets for its automobiles in Japan, North America, Europe and Asia.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

West Japan Railway Company

West Japan Railway is one of the companies that was formed upon the privatization and separation of Japanese National Railways ("JNR") in 1987. Co. operates a railway network covering 18 prefectures in western Honshu and the northern tip of Kyushu, with a total of 5,036.7 km of railway with 1,186 stations and 6,562 rolling stocks as of Mar 31 2017. Co. is engaged in the provision of "Sanyo Shinkansen" and urban network passenger transport service; the operation of convenience stores, department stores and hotels; the operation and management of shopping centers; and the provision of travel agency, advertising agency, as well as maintenance and engineering services.

Yaskawa Electric Corporation

Yaskawa Electric and its affiliates are mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of electric motors, industrial robots and industrial electrical control systems. Co.'s principal products include AC/DC servomotors, spindle motors for machine tools, programmable controllers, numerical controls, general-purpose/special-system inverters, industrial robots, clean robots, vacuum robots, transfer systems in clean/vacuum rooms, industrial electrical control systems for metal processing, cold rolling and paper making, water supply/sewage control systems, power receiving/distribution panels, circuit breakers, high-voltage switchgears, and energy-saving motor drivers.

Provider
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd
Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Analysts
Pelham Smithers

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