Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Scale benefits visible

While we acknowledge that costs will rise as activity picks up, we believe the underlying trends in Q2 demonstrate the scale benefits of Axactor’s operating model. Reaching its full-year capex guidance of EUR200m is, however, looking increasingly challenging to us, with the lion’s share needed to be closed in Q4e. We have lifted our 2022–2023e EPS by 0–1%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price based on a still-attractive risk/reward, with the stock trading at a 35% discount to its 2021e B...

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Sustained discipline

While market activity is gradually picking up speed, we believe Axactor sustained its investment discipline during Q2. However, robust collection trends and seasonality should lead to solid revenues, which, combined with continued cost measures, take our Q2e EBIT to EUR22.3m. We have trimmed our 2022–2023e EPS by 0–3% but reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price. The stock is trading at a ~20% discount to book value, which in our view offers an attractive risk/reward should Axactor deliver on it...

Axactor - Earnings accretion, cost savings and easy comps

Underlying better earnings than expected in Q1 Savings lift est. reported EBITDA 3% for 2022e-23e Estimated fair value range of NOK 8.4-26.8/share

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Clean-up continues

Q1 marked another clean-up quarter for Axactor, with its underlying performance in line with our forecasts. While collections were on a par with our estimate, the Q1 results showed limited signs of a pick-up in activity, which we continue to expect in H2 2021. Our 2022–2023 EBIT estimates are largely unchanged, as marginally lower revenues are offset by lower costs following the restructuring programme, which management expects to provide annual cost savings of ~EUR5m from Q4. We reiterate our B...

Axactor - Underlying better, but one-offs blur

Q1’21: Cash EBITDA EUR 52m, 4m below ABG and cons Deviation driven by one-offs from cost reduction initiative EUR 4m EBITDA uplift from YE’21 from cost reductions

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK95.00) - No chill in krill

Aker BioMarine reported a mixed Q1 with weak revenue offset by stronger than expected margins and maintained guidance. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK95 (105) on the soft near-term revenue outlook and slightly lower estimates.

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Mixed report

We consider this a mixed report for Aker BioMarine, including revenues significantly below expectations, but with EBITDA and net profit above and reiterated guidance. We expect only minor changes to consensus adj. EBITDA 2021e on the back of the report. We consider a neutral share price reaction warranted.

Axactor - Cost reduction programme results expected in Q1

Q1’21e: cash EBITDA of EUR 56m, +17% y-o-y Full-year capex for 2021 estimated at ~EUR 240m Cash EBITDA chg.: -4% ’21e, -2% ’22e and -1% ’23e

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Banking on a rebound

We find Axactor well positioned to benefit from rising IRRs and the increased supply of NPLs in the coming years, even though the 2021e investment catch-up looks back-end-loaded due to the prolonged nature of the pandemic. We forecast gross revenues of EUR84.8m in Q1, while a low amortisation rate leaves our EBIT at EUR18.1m. We have lowered our 2022e EBIT only marginally. We reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price, implying a rather attractive 2022e P/E of 7.7x in our view.

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - A bumpy start to the year

We are significantly below consensus ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 on 29 April). We expect lower adj. EBITDA YOY given a tough comparable, on top of negative timing effects due to the weak harvest in Q4, a negative revenue impact from South Korea still below peak levels, poor aqua sales driven by seasonality and a still-weak trend for Kori. On a more positive note, harvesting looks to be on track so far in Q1. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK105 (120).

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Back-end loaded capex ramp-up

In our view, the Q4 report demonstrated that fundamentals are gradually moving in the right direction, leaving Axactor well positioned for an investment ramp-up during 2021. However, management comments suggest a back-end loaded capital deployment. We have made only limited changes to our 2021–2022e EPS, and reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price. We continue to apply a discount to company-provided collection curves, acknowledging the meaningful potential for earnings expansion should it meet ...

Axactor - Q4: lots of moving parts, but cash EBITDA better

Q4’20: reported EBITDA EUR 1.8m below ABG… …Cash EBITDA EUR 1.6m ahead in the quarter Revaluations blurred, cash EBITDA better than expected

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Things in place for ramp-up

With added investment capacity and extended debt maturities, we find Axactor well placed to take part in the coming NPL up-cycle. We expect a continued pick-up in gross revenue generation in Q4 (EUR88m), and EBIT of EUR21m. We have raised our 2021–2022e EBIT by ~0–2%, while reiterating our BUY and NOK13 target price, implying an attractive 7.5x 2022e P/E, in our view.

Axactor - Growing pipeline in third-party collection

Q4’20: reported EBIT flattish y-o-y A growing pipeline in third-party collection ~20% valuation uplift from “big-fix” transaction

Northern Lights

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Krill your darlings

Aker BioMarine reported a weak Q4, with soft guidance for 2021 on lower than expected harvest volumes and growth in the brand segment. We have downgraded to HOLD (Buy) and cut our target price to NOK120 (140) on lower estimates.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Q4 a tad soft, and weak guidance

We consider this a weak report for Aker BioMarine, including figures slightly below expectations and soft guidance for 2021 . We expect 15% negative revisions to consensus 2021 EBITDA on the back of the report and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Harvesting volumes set to recove...

Ahead of the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 16 February), we believe Aker BioMarine will deliver on its harvesting, with favourable production costs in H1e supporting margins in H2e. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK140 (120) to reflect lower near-term operational harvesting risk and several recent announcements crystallising longer-term value.

Northern Lights

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Novel protein launch to add upsi...

Aker BioMarine announced this morning the launch of INVI, a novel protein for human consumption, tapping into a potential global protein market of USD34bn. In our current SOTP of NOK192/share, we have not included any value contribution from a protein plant. However, Aker BioMarine plans to ramp up production of INVI towards 5,000 MT per year, set to generate USD80m–100m in revenues by 2029, with the first product out in 2022/2023. We see potential upside of NOK13/share and believe a positive sh...