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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review

The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...

After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Why are governments allowing mobile price hikes?

We note EM Governments & regulators appear to have become much more relaxed about mobile ARPU growing above inflation relative to the recent past. Why is this? This note gives one possible explanation.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...

Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...

There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...

Moody's Ratings assigns Baa3 rating to Vodafone's new hybrid notes due...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today assigned a Baa3 rating to the two EUR-denominated hybrid securities both with maturity in 2055 to be issued by Vodafone Group Plc (Vodafone or the company). The outlook is unchanged at stable. RATINGS RATIONALE The Baa3 rating assigned to the new hybrids is on...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Continuing strong: NSR GEM Top-10 September...

August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

GEM/Japan Telcos Starlink – What impact might it have in Global EM, J...

Following on from the recent report by our European colleagues on the potential impact Starlink is likely to have on broadband in Europe, we look at markets outside of Europe: EM, Japan, Singapore and Australia.

Vodafone Group: 1 director

A director at Vodafone Group sold after exercising options/sold 871,500 shares at 87p and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over t...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +15%) MTN Uganda – Q2 25 Quick Take: Solid EBIT...

MTN Uganda has reported a decent set of Q2 results. Top line trends were roughly similar to Q1, still impacted by the MTR cut on the voice side. However, data growth remained solid and EBITDA margins were good.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.8, +19%) MasOrange (Equal Weight) It’s not all a...

We have been long-term Buyers of Orange, and are pleased about the YTD share price performance (+37% vs the sector +10%). Some of that outperformance is probably due to the prospect of French market repair (France is 56% of the value), but actually it is the Spanish and AME divisions that cause our target to rise to €15.8 from €14.9 post the Q2 results.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Another monster month: NSR GEM Top-10 Augus...

Our top picks performed very strongly again in July, marked by a strong recovery from VEON, Millicom and IHS Towers alongside continued momentum at Singtel and Airtel Africa. Heading into earnings season, we continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.

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