reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African & EMEA Telcos & Towers Outlook 2025; Catching back what was l...
The last 2 years have been tough for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. However, we exited 2024 with some signs that trends are inflecting. AAF remains our top pick in Africa as it offers Bharti-style execution at a fraction of the multiple, and VEON our top pick overall.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2025
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid quarter; Q3 24 review
Q3 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers from an EBITDA and capex perspective. We recently wrote on AAF’s strength of execution (HERE) where we also highlighted the extent of its outperformance which may surprise investors.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...
Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa Plc Q1:2025FYE Earnings Note - Currency Volatility Expos...
In its recently released Q1:2025 financial result, Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) posted a decrease in its consolidated topline in reporting currency (USD). Overall, Revenue fell by 16.07% YoY to USD1.16bn in Q1:2025. This decline may be alluded to currency devaluations in two out of three regions of operation, Nigeria and East Africa. In reported currency, Voice Revenue (-23.41% YoY), Data Revenue (-15.79% YoY), and Other Revenue (-12.56% YoY) all contributed to the annual deceleration in grow...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q1 24 review: Strong underlying top line, weak profit...
Nigerian Telcos continue to perform well from a top line perspective. Market service revenue growth accelerated (again) in Q1 with both MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa growing underlying service revenue by ~33% YoY. As expected, EBITDA and profit metrics were weaker (especially for MTN) because of the Naira devaluation in Q1
- Chris Hoare
Bharti Airtel, Airtel Africa & Singtel At $100bn, downgrade Bharti Ai...
Bharti crossing $100bn market cap makes us address the question of which parts of the Bharti/Singtel/Airtel Africa capital structure are most attractive. Bharti has the momentum, but the valuation gap is now extreme. Reversion to the mean will likely happen at some point which means sensible investors in Bharti should now be switching into Singtel (for yield) or Airtel Africa (for growth).
Airtel Africa Plc 2024FYE Performance - Strong Local Currency Sales Ha...
Currency Woes Persist in Nigeria In three operating regions, AIRTELAFRI recorded stronger YoY reporting currency revenue growth in only Francophone Africa . In reporting currency terms, Francophone Africa grew by 12.39% YoY to NGN1.35bn in 2024FYE (vs. 6.21% YoY in 2023FYE). This growth was stronger than 10.34% YoY in 2024FYE recorded in constant currency (vs. 12.66% YoY in 2023FYE), due to currency appreciation in the Central African Franc during the period. Stable Operating Margins: Lower...
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