We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
The last 2 years have been tough for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. However, we exited 2024 with some signs that trends are inflecting. AAF remains our top pick in Africa as it offers Bharti-style execution at a fraction of the multiple, and VEON our top pick overall.
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
Q3 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers from an EBITDA and capex perspective. We recently wrote on AAF’s strength of execution (HERE) where we also highlighted the extent of its outperformance which may surprise investors.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
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