reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...
Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +54%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 25 Quick Take, and read ...
MTN Nigeria has reported a strong set of Q1 results across all metrics. Price increases were only implemented from March which suggests further sharp improvements going forward. The company maintained FY25 guidance, but in our view is tracking ahead.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – NSR EM Top picks Feb 25 update. Top-8 beco...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African & EMEA Telcos & Towers Outlook 2025; Catching back what was l...
The last 2 years have been tough for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. However, we exited 2024 with some signs that trends are inflecting. AAF remains our top pick in Africa as it offers Bharti-style execution at a fraction of the multiple, and VEON our top pick overall.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2025
We remain constructive on EM Telcos despite the major stocks generally performing well through 2023 and 2024. As the long telco cycle inflects, and the industry consolidates, conditions still seem ripe for GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC we think. In this note, we run through the themes we think investors should follow in 2025. In a separate note, also published today we introduce the NSR EM Telco – Top 8, our top EM picks in the Telco and Towers space.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
This note introduces the NSR GEM-Top 8, which will be a regularly updated list of our preferred Telcos and Towers in Global Emerging Markets. In a separate note out today, we run through the key themes that we see driving the EM Telco and Towers sector in 2025
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid quarter; Q3 24 review
Q3 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers from an EBITDA and capex perspective. We recently wrote on AAF’s strength of execution (HERE) where we also highlighted the extent of its outperformance which may surprise investors.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...
Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.
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