Following the announcement of a proposed merger between XL and Smartfren in Indonesia, news media has reported that talks between StarHub and M1 in Singapore have resurfaced in the past couple of days too. Our brief take below, with implications for SingTel.
Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.
Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).
TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.
For Apr 24, our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 0.4% mom on an equal-weighted basis, underperforming the STI slightly by 1.7ppt. It was a mixed performance from our portfolio with the top performers being MPM, BAL and CD while FRKN, LREIT and ST underperformed. Our Alpha Picks portfolio has outperformed the STI in three out of the past four months. For May 24, we add FEHT, MPACT, GENS; remove BAL, LREIT and CLAS.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) 1Q24: Earnings miss on muted fee income and higher cost-to-income ratio. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.34/Target: HK$1.83) 1Q24: Mixed bag of results; regaining cement market share. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.52/Target: Rmb29.10) 1Q24: Margins miss likely due to product mix, AI business remains robust. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$27.10/Target: ...
Singtel announced an 11-year A$1.6b network sharing deal with TPG in regional Australia, receiving around A$900m of incremental cashflows over 11 years. However, we expect minimal near-term earnings impact for Singtel. The group also announced S$3.1b of non-cash impairment provisions, which will result in a net loss for 2HFY24. This was largely due to a significant S$2b impairment on Optus, dragged by the enterprise segment. Maintain BUY with the same target price of S$2.99.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT SP/BUY/S$1.26/Target: S$1.89): 4QFY24: Turning around towards an upward trajectory. Wilmar International (WIL SP/HOLD/S$3.34/Target: S$3.35): 1Q24: Results below our expectations due to weaker-than-expected margins from feed & industrial products despite higher sales volume. Update Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP/BUY/S$2.35/Target: S$2.99): Striking a deal in regional Australia. TRADERS’ CORNER Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCN...
SingTel announced two separate pieces of news today: 1) Optus' network sharing agreement with TPG, and 2) S$3.1bn of non-cash write down related to Optus and its Australian Enterprise businesses. As news flow was overshadowed by the latter, shares were down 3% today.
With Bharti in sight of US$100bn market cap and SingTel languishing after the abortive sale of a stake in Optus, SingTel’s stake in Bharti is now worth the same as SingTel’s entire market cap. This also means that SingTel’s SOP discount is at all-time highs of 50%. In this note we look at how management could address this through buybacks, and what the accretion impact of selling stakes in Bharti to buy back SingTel shares would be.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy The Impact Of Escalating Middle East Tensions A fluid situation with oil prices the key worry. Small/Mid Cap Highlights BRC Asia (BRC SP/BUY/S$1.94/Target: S$2.42) 1QFY24: Strong results as construction demand recovers. TRADERS’ CORNER Aztech Global (AZTECH SP): Trading BUY Isdn Holdings (ISDN SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 6.0% mom on an equal-weighted basis, outperforming the STI by a material 3.4ppt. The outperformance was driven by broad-based strength across most of our portfolio with the best showing coming from Riverstone, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and Singtel. In 1Q24, our Alpha Picks portfolio surged by 13.7% qoq, surpassing the STI by a hefty 14.2ppt qoq. For Apr 24, we add CSE and LREIT while removing MINT, CVL and FEH.
Thai operators witnessed a notable uptick in growth as industry mobile ARPU reverted to growth after more than three years. EBITDA also bounced higher led by TRUE, setting the stage for 9-11% growth in FY24. Guided capex also suggests moderating capex intensity which is key driver of ROIC upside. The outlook is turning more optimistic than before, validated by our recent visit of the two telcos.
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
We ran our Asia Telco tour last week. This time we met 12 companies in 3 countries (Korea, Japan, Thailand). Telco share prices in all 3 of these countries have been pretty strong recently as telcos continue to benefit from generally positive themes: growth, return on capital and shareholder remuneration are all typically improving.
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Government’s draft plan seeks to promote a more supportive drug innovation ecosystem. Results Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.35/Target: Rmb29.10): 4Q23: Top-line beat but margins miss; raise estimates on the AI business. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ/BUY/Rp5,250/Target: Rp7,300): Tariff adjustments at 12 toll road sections to drive 19.3% core NPAT growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/BUY/RM2...
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