reports
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy (Buy, TP: NOK33.00) - Still awaiting Maromba FID
Ahead of BW Energy’s Q1 trading update (due at c07:00 CET on 16 April), we forecast net production of ~35kboed (no reliable consensus). With Maromba still awaiting a final investment decision (FID), contributing to meaningful capex in the coming years, alongside an appraisal campaign at Kudu in H2e, we estimate muted FCF until Maromba production commences in 2028e. Still, the valuation screens attractively at a ~40% discount to our NAV. We reiterate our BUY and NOK33 target price.
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
PRS PROSAFE
OKEA OKEA
BWE BW ENERGY
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
BW Energy: granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase ...
BW Energy: granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase to 2042 by ANP BW Energy granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase to 2042 by ANP BW Energy is pleased to announce the extension of the Golfinho licence by Brazilian oil and gas regulator ANP. The production phase under the Golfinho concession contract has been extended to 2042 from previously 2031, following ANP’s approval of the Company’s field development plan in November 2024. "The extension supports our long-term plans for developing the Golfinho field, initially through improved operational...
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy: Enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility
BW Energy: Enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility BW Energy enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility BW Energy is pleased to announce an up to USD 500 million Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility. The new facility replaces the USD 200 million RBL from 2022, which was increased to USD 300 million in 2023. The funds will be used together with cash-flow from operations to finance the further development of the Company. The facility has an initial commitment of USD 400 million, which can be expanded with an additional USD 100 million. The senior secured long-...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics and discussion
This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...
- Steffen Evjen
NCS February production in line
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy: Issuance of shares
BW Energy: Issuance of shares Issuance of shares Reference is made to the stock exchange announcement published earlier today by BW Energy Limited ("BW Energy" or the "Company") regarding the settlement of RSUs by issuance of shares in the Company in order to settle RSUs under BW Energy's Long Term Incentive Program (LTIP). Following the issuance of shares, there are 258,066,021 issued shares in the Company, each with a nominal value of USD 0.01, all of which have been validly and legally issued and fully paid. For further information, please contact: Brice Morlot, CFO BW Energy, Abou...
BW Energy: Mandatory Notification of Trade - Exercise of existing Rest...
BW Energy: Mandatory Notification of Trade - Exercise of existing Restricted Share Units (RSUs) Mandatory Notification of Trade - Exercise of existing Restricted Share Units (RSUs) Under BW Energy Limited's ("BW Energy" or the "Company") Long Term Incentive Program (LTIP), 71,721 RSUs from the prior years' grants have been vested and exercised. In accordance with the terms and conditions of the RSUs, the Board of Directors has decided to settle the RSUs by issuing shares to the RSU holders. Each RSU gives a right to acquire one share in the Company at a subscription price equal to the nom...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...
- Steffen Evjen
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy: Substantial oil discovery made on the Bourdon prospect
BW Energy: Substantial oil discovery made on the Bourdon prospect Substantial oil discovery made on the Bourdon prospect BW Energy is pleased to announce a substantial oil discovery with good reservoir quality on the Bourdon prospect in the Dussafu Licence offshore Gabon. Evaluation of logging data and formation pressure measurements confirm approximately 34 metres of pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 45 metres in the Gamba formation, making it the largest hydrocarbon column discovered to date in the Dussafu licence. The well was drilled by the Norve jack-up rig to a total dep...
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