reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: BRL22, +27%) New R$1bn share buyback plan approv...
TIM Brasil has approved a new share buyback plan, up to R$1bn (US$ 173m), which represents a significant uptick in overall shareholder remuneration. This is another positive development following its new medium term guidance. With a net cash position and 14% 2025 FCFE yield, the stock is a compelling Buy and represents one of our Top Picks in EM with a R$ 22 price target.
- Chris Hoare
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: BRL22, +39%) Q4 24: Solid quarter, positive MT g...
TIM has delivered a solid set of Q4 results, with a beat at EBITDAaL and solid FCF. The company has also provided FY25 guidance which is broadly in-line with expectations and medium-term guidance which is broadly ahead of expectations
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – NSR EM Top picks Feb 25 update. Top-8 beco...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
LatAm Telcos: Outlook 2025 – Market repair continues, TIM Brasil and V...
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets and further consolidation likely. Macro / political risk is probably the biggest issue. We upgrade TIM Brasil and Vivo to Buy. Price targets rise to BRL22 and BRL66 (from BRL19 and BRL57 ) respectively.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) - Q3 24: In-line trends, Nubank and p...
TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +32%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +26%) AMX (Buy, TP...
TIM Q2s: As with Claro and Vivo, TIM delivered a robust set of Q2 results. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~1% though at EBITDAaL TIM outperformed with a +5% beat, supported by stable Leases compared to Q1. Service revenue maintained consistent growth in-line with previous quarters (~7% y/y) from faster postpaid, and maintained negative prepaid. H1 EBITDA (and revenue) continued to trend slightly above the FY24 guidance. Despite management’s confidence in achieving targets for the year...
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline E...
Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +24%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q1s, trending ahead o...
TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.
- Chris Hoare
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