A director at Benefit Systems S.A. sold 20,000 shares at 2,750.017PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
HEADLINES: • Czech banks: special sector levy headlines continue to flow NEGATIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: 1Q24 interim financial results POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 – strong set of results, with EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 May) • Inter Cars: 25% yoy 1Q24E EBITDA decline, on top line and FX-related gross margin weakness (due on 22 May) • Short News (DAT, OTE)
Key Message Romgaz reported a solid quarter with RON 1581 mn EBITDA, down 16% YoY andup 43.8% QoQ. The company was able to improve QoQ profitability despite significantly lower gas prices, primarily due to a substantial reduction in windfall taxes from RON 477 mn to RON 77 mn from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024. Other parametersremained relatively stable.
HEADLINES: • Georgia Capital: announces two new buyback programmes POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q24 results – mildly above expectations POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line miss and further margin compression in the 1Q24 results NEGATIVE • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Alpha Services and Holdings: 1Q24 highlights – trading-related beat, but NIM and fees evolve better than expected • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 1Q24 highlights – helped by trading income, but good quarter ove...
Overall, we view these results as broadly positive. We are concerned about the lack of development of the balance sheet, but we hope the bank will return to growth mode in the coming quarters. On the other hand, we appreciate the margin resilience, and the bank’s ability to find results elsewhere (namely NFC) and to keep its costs contained. The bottom-line beat was also supported by the low level of provisioning and taxes booked; therefore, replicating it in the coming quarters might be a tall ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: strong 1Q24, but May card base estimate disappoints POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 1Q24E results review – EBITDA up 46% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2024E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line print in 1Q24, but loan book development remains absent POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q24 EBITDA 5% above our forecast, 6% miss vs. the consensus NEUTRAL • DataWalk: 1Q24 numbers fully in line with ...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...
Refining margins retreated again in April, by USD 1.2/bbl, to USD 12.6/bbl, remaining about 40% higher than usual for the season. Petrol cracks continued their seasonal rising trend, but diesel weakened more. Polymer margins had a positive month, but olefins and aromatics saw their margins go the other way.
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24 results – 19%+ headline ROE affected only slightly by FX mortgage saga costs • Bank Pekao: 1Q24 results in line with market's expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 4Q23 headlines hit heavily by write-offs, but a more limited EBITDA loss than we had expected NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • OMV: 1Q24 results – chemicals stronger than expected NEUTRAL • Borouge: 1Q24 results – better than expected POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: 1Q24 results NEUTRAL • Garan...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 4Q23 net profit in line with prelims, a miss vs. our initial forecasts due to lower gross margin NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 4Q23 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Shoper: earnings call takeaways – strong April, optimistic on 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • Uzbekistan macro: CBU keeps rates on hold • Polish banks: Polish Supreme Court reconfirms th...
In 2023, GTC launched – and eventually walked away from – an attempt to take over Ultima. Under new leadership, the company entered 2024 with an LTV of 49%, having made EUR 65m in FFO in 2023 (EUR 71m, if adjusted for non-recurring cost items). The key task ahead is the refinancing of the 2026E EUR 500m green bond. GTC plans to exit the Ireland data-centre development project, which could help it to repay part of the bonds. Importantly, it has secured permission to expand the technological campu...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 1Q24 results – EBITDAaL up 5% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: strong miss on EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • GTC: 4Q23 – no material revaluation result, focus remains on refinancing ahead NEUTRAL • Poland macro: retail sales stay brisk in March • Hungary macro: MNB slows down pace of rate cuts • Kruk: 1Q24E preview (due on 8 May, after the close) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Eurocash: 1Q24E results preview – 16% yoy EBITDA ...
HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola İçecek: to new horizons (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (15-21 April) • Benefit Systems: acquires 18.5% stake in SmartLunch in exchange for shares in Lunching and a PLN 38m cash payment NEUTRAL • Georgia macro: offshore law passes third reading • Kazatomprom: BoD proposes a dividend of KZT 1,213/share NEUTRAL • Short News (HUG, OPL, MTELEKOM)
• LPP: the glass is half full (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 4Q23 beat on costs, profit warning for 1Q24E • 11 bit studios: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA beats expectations on a solid top line • Polish banks: 2024 contributions to the BFG • MOL: oil production starts on a new platform at ACG field • Ford Otosan: completes the Eurobond book-building process • Kalekim: 2023 IAS 29 results - strong operating results • Lamda: 4Q23 results - a significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing m...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: reassessing the inflation and rates outlook to 2025E eop • Benefit Systems: strong momentum continues • Dom Development: volume growth, margins stronger for longer (stays BUY) • Kazakhstan macro: NBK keeps policy rate on hold, at 14.75% • Ford Otosan: to issue Eurobond • Bank Pekao: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • Santander Bank Polska: 1Q24E preview (results due on 30 April) • ING BSK: 1Q24E preview (results due on 7 May) • Short News (HUG)
After the excellent 2023 (3.9k units sold, PLN 2.6bn in revenues and a 30+% ROE, with just PLN 131m of net debt), we believe that Dom Development (Dom) is en route to another good year. Construction costs are stable and prices are still trending up, albeit at a slower pace than last year, when we saw offer prices for new apartments rise 14-22% yoy in major Polish cities, according to JLL. This means that we could see strong margins for longer, with possible upside to the already-high GPM of rece...
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