It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
TIM Brasil has approved a new share buyback plan, up to R$1bn (US$ 173m), which represents a significant uptick in overall shareholder remuneration. This is another positive development following its new medium term guidance. With a net cash position and 14% 2025 FCFE yield, the stock is a compelling Buy and represents one of our Top Picks in EM with a R$ 22 price target.
TIM has delivered a solid set of Q4 results, with a beat at EBITDAaL and solid FCF. The company has also provided FY25 guidance which is broadly in-line with expectations and medium-term guidance which is broadly ahead of expectations
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of TIM ON (BR), active in the Mobile Telecommunications industry. The title has lost a star(s) at the fundamental level and now shows 2 out of 4 stars. Its exposure to market risk remains nonetheless the same and can be still described as defensive. theScreener slightly downgrades the general evaluation to Slightly Positive for the title on account of the lost star(s). As of the analysis date March 4, 2022...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.