HEADLINES: • Poland macro: August retail sales ring alarm bells • 11 bit studios: 350k Frostpunk 2 copies sold; costs fully covered already NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: IR comments – Frostpunk 2 sales volumes as expected, disappointed with player reviews NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 falls to 11th position on Steam top seller list NEGATIVE • Richter: USD 10m milestone from Japan’s Fuji Pharma NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Duna House: loan ranger, with dividends to boot (BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 September) • Huuuge Games: 2Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: August sales growth decelerates to just 7% yoy NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: class action lawsuit in the US regarding technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: termination of credit facilities at Bank Pekao NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: delivers first part of FTTH network in Spain NEUTRAL
In this report, we update our forecasts for Duna House (DH), a financial intermediary, a real estate broker and a developer. We set our new price target (PT) at HUF 1,189/share, implying 35% upside, and our rating at BUY (vs. no rating or PT previously). DH works with a network of over 4k entrepreneurs in Italy, Poland, Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic, across a network of over 240, mostly franchise, offices. Following its 2022 entry into Italy, financial intermediation accounts for aroun...
Duna House continued the strong performance in the second quarter of this year. Revenues increased by 34% YoY, cleaned core EBITDA was up by 47% YoY and cleaned core net profit came 17% higher YoY mainly supported by the continued growth in loan intermediation thanks to the awakening Italian market and the solid growth in the Hungarian segment.
A director at Eurobank Ergasias Services And Holdings sold 50,000 shares at 2.047EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...
HEADLINES: • cyber_Folks: 2Q24 results review – 21% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, 4% above our estimate POSITIVE • Sarantis: 1H24 EBITDA up 45% yoy, 8% ahead of our expectations; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Vercom: 2Q24 results review – 29% yoy EBITDA growth, 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: reflections on the consequences of a weak Germany • Kazakhstan macro: Tokayev’s 2024 state-of-the-nation address • Türkiye macro: GDP underperforms in 2Q • 4iG: key takeaways from ...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: solid bottom-line print in 2Q24 POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q24 – EBITDA up 40% yoy in Italy POSITIVE • 4iG: 2Q24 results review – 4% yoy drop in reported EBITDA NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: key takeaways from the 1H24 conference call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (25 August-1 September) • Mo-BRUK: Public Procurement Office (KIO) rejects MBR’s appeal regarding tender in Szczecin NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 1H24E preview – 34% yoy EBITDA growth expected, on Stella and or...
Duna House’s 2Q24 results were slightly ahead of our estimates, mainly on the stronger performance from the financial intermediation segment. The company delivered solid yoy growth: the EBITDA was up 29% yoy in EUR terms, despite the slightly lower contribution from the apartment sales in 2Q24, compared to 2Q23. The clean, core EBITDA, which tracks the performance of the financial and real estate brokerage business, was up 40% yoy. Management has reiterated the financial guidance for the full ye...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 2Q24 results – recently-announced miss caused by higher costs and negative revaluations in Spain NEUTRAL • Eurocash: weak 2Q24 across the board NEGATIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q24 review – net profit down 10% yoy, 7% above the consensus POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA slightly below our expectations, but bottom line boosted by associates NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q24 results – adjusted EBITDA flat yoy, 2% above the market consensus; bottom-line miss on revaluation of...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: awaiting a NII inflection point (stays BUY) • MONETA Money Bank: valuation prices in higher ROE and strong yield (stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA 16% above our forecast; TEN confirms mom bookings recovery in July POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: new tenders for ecological bombs decommissioning on the market NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 2Q24E results previe...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: still some gas in the tank (stays BUY) • Ford Otosan: weak set of results in 2Q24 NEGATIVE • ING Bank: posts neutral set of 2Q24 results NEUTRAL • Shoper: preliminary 2Q24 adjusted EBITDA up by a strong 32% yoy, as expected NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 2Q24 beats, on lower receivables provisioning and tax rate NEUTRAL • Richter: takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: PAP interview with the CEO – key takeaways NEUTRAL • MOL: 2Q24E r...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how strong are the recession signals? • Richter: well-rounded 2Q24 beat vs. the consensus POSITIVE • Tupras: 2Q24 results and dividend announcement POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK up 1% and CASKX up 8% yoy, driving margins lower from peak levels, as expected NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 2Q24 results below expectations NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 2Q24 in line, but 1H24 EBIT and FCFE both down yoy, and VietJet entry into Kazakhstan a risk NEUTRAL • KazMuna...
Due to the transfer of coverage, we update our forecasts and set our 12m-target price to HUF 975, implying a limited upside potential of 6% after the recent rally in DH’s shares. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 12.7x/7.6x/7.5x for ‘24/’25/’26. Duna House is the leading provider of consumer finance and real estate solutions in CEE region with operations in Hungary, Italy, Poland and Czech Republic, engaging in loan brokerage and real estate transactions. Operating under their internationa...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: posts strong 2Q24 and upgrades medium-term COR outlook POSITIVE • Alior Bank: management board nominations POSITIVE • Erste Banks: books solid 2Q24; guides for 2024E DPS at an attractive level; awaiting opening conclusions from the new CEO POSITIVE • Tofas: highly weak set of results in 2Q24 NEGATIVE • National Bank of Greece: 2Q24 highlights – positive 2H24E, with guidance upgrade • NLB Group: solid print in 2Q24, beating estimates, due to release of provisions POSITIVE...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: slower growth on the horizon (stays HOLD) • Wizz Air: 1Q FY25 – a miss, and FY guidance reviewed down NEGATIVE • mBank: posts solid 2Q24 results; evolution of the CHF mortgage saga a key catalyst NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24 results – slight miss • BRD-GSG: small miss on 2Q24 bottom line, but good dynamics in loan book development NEUTRAL • Eurobank Ergasias Services: 2Q24 highlights – in line in 2Q24, but trends indicate upside for full-year NI estimate • Euroba...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: 2Q24 – big beat on headline profit, underlying results largely in line NEUTRAL • Budimex: preliminary 2Q24 EBIT in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 2Q24 traffic; summertime sadness • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 July) • Text: secures new (fifth) patent in the US POSITIVE • Arcelik: change of CFO NEUTRAL • Greek banks: 2Q24E previews (reporting season starts on 31 July) POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 2Q24E preview – flat adjusted EBITD...
The Greek banks’ earnings season will kick off on 31 July, with Piraeus Financial Holdings and Eurobank Ergasias Services’ results, followed by National Bank of Greece on 1 August and Alpha Services and Holdings on 2 August. On the adjusted / before one-offs net income level, for the sector as a whole, we expect an 11% qoq contraction and 6% yoy growth. We believe that trading income is likely to be a significant factor behind the qoq decline in earnings. We do not expect radical qoq changes in ...
HEADLINES: • Krka: 2Q24 earnings review NEUTRAL • PZU: AGM refuses to discharge entire management board from performance of duties for 2023 • PKO BP: Supervisory Board updates its recommendations for the AGM, due to reconvene next week • Mo-BRUK: signs PLN 9m contract for ecological bomb decommissioning in Katowice NEUTRAL • Richter: EMA accepts Denosumab submission NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 2Q24E results preview (due on 30 July) NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 2Q24E results preview (due on 4 August) NE...
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