Energy Morning - 19 May 2025

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...

Panoro Energy Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 operations and trading update. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK38 target price.

Hornsea 4 cancellation adds to uncertainty

Ørsted today announced it is cancelling development of the 2.4GW Hornsea 4 project off the UK due to increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and greater construction and operational risk (FID was expected later in 2025). The cancellation adds to uncertainty for the offshore wind services industry and overall project profitability within offshore wind. No installation contracts for Hornsea 4 had been disclosed yet, but with Cadeler responsible for foundations and half the turbines on...

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 gu...

• 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. • Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online. We project ~3,800 bbl/d WI production in Equatorial Guinea over 2Q-4Q25. • Output in Tunisia has increased compared to 4Q24 (1,467 bbl/d) foll...

Energy Morning - 7 May 2025

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Targets higher oil production at Maromba

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Panoro Energy ASA: 1 director

A director at Panoro Energy ASA maiden bought 25,000 shares at 23.150NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Edda Wind (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdraw...

Geveran Trading, Wilhelmsen New Energy and EPS Ventures today announced they will make an unconditional mandatory cash offer to acquire all outstanding shares in Edda Wind that they do not already own. The offer price of NOK23/share equals a 33% premium to yesterday’s close, and implies a 2026–2027e EV/EBITDA of 7.2–6.1x on our estimates before the announcement and P/NAV of 0.7x. The three shareholders currently own 82% of shares outstanding in Edda Wind, and through BidCo Electric AS have alrea...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Cash offer at 33% premium

Energy Morning - 29 April 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in G...

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Reserves addition much larger than expec...

• YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. • The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG. • In Gabon, YE24 WI...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.