Stillfront Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price w...

Due to Carnegie (DNB)’s role as financial advisor to the board and management in Stillfront’s strategic review announced today, we have withdrawn our recommendation (BUY) and target price (SEK12).

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Drivers of cash flow to be reversed

Tele2 reported a solid Q1 with a beat on EBITDA, and especially strong cash flow, which was related to one-off items that are mostly expected to be reversed in coming quarters. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK140 target price.

Executing margin improvements

Tele2 (Neutral, TP: SEK 130, -1%) Q1 25: A strong start to the year

Tele2 has reported a good set of results, with a strong inflection in EBITDAaL trends, and EBITDAaL is +2.6% ahead of consensus (albeit c50% of the EBITDAaL beat is due to a Lithuania cost deferral). The key question is whether or not this is a pull forward of the already announced cost savings, or a new higher level?

Cost control on point

Heads-up for report 23 April

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Beneficiary of peak uncertainty

With the new main owner doubling down on costs, and a limited FX/tariff impact, Tele2 has significantly outperformed the OMX Benchmark index over the past two years. We believe a solid Q1 report is priced in, and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but have raised our target price to SEK140 (135) on prospects of a tower deal.

Improving cash flows, but still pricey

Ready for '25 acceleration

Stillfront Group (Buy, TP: SEK12.00) - FCF holding up well

We have cut our 2025e adj. EBIT by 9% on the near-term guidance for an accelerating organic revenue drop YOY in Q1. However, we reiterate our BUY and have lowered our target price to SEK12 (14) following the solid FCF trend, which we expect to continue, and catalysts such as new management, improved organic revenue growth (H2e), and further FCF-enhancing efficiency gains. Our 2025e NIBD of SEK4.3bn, including current earnouts, equals 1.8x adj. EBITDA.

Stillfront Group Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates for the preliminary Q4 results and SEK6.9bn non-cash goodwill write-down announced on 29 January. We have also edged up our 2025–2026e revenues for FX. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK14 target price. The full Q4 results are due at 07:00 CET on 5 February.

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Higher ambitions outlined

Tele2 reported a soft Q4, but launched a cost reduction programme, reducing its workforce by c15%. We believe this will lead to improved EBITDA growth from 2025e. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK135 (130).

Prel. Q4 below expectations

Efficiencies in the making

DPS disappointment but accelerated savings

Heads-up for report 29 January

Better earnings momentum ahead

Tele2 (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Iliad likely to act on costs

On tougher comparables, we expect slower EBITDA growth YOY in Q4 than in the previous quarters, which could also affect the 2025 guidance. However, in our view, we should also start to see what Iliad can do to improve performance from 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK130 (120).

Growth uncertainty as inflation tapers off

Tough comps for 1% EBITDAaL growth