reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Downgrading Micron: Cyclical patterns should prevail, even along secul...
Memory fundamentals are strong, with HBM demand rising alongside a recovery in conventional memory, while supply stays tight. We expect a series of earnings beats over the coming quarters. However, Micron trades at peak multiples, and we expect those beats to be offset by continued multiple compression, consistent with past cycles—likely resulting in muted stock performance. We therefore downgrade Micron to Neutral, with a $190 target. For now, we prefer TSMC. It offers AI exposure comparable ...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO : Mémoire : Et si nous étions à l’aube d’un ‘supercycle’ ?
Les prix de la mémoire ont progressé de 15% sur un mois et de ~30% YTD. Cela reflète une forte tension sur l’offre alors que la demande IA est plus élevée qu’attendu. Les stocks de mémoires sont, par ailleurs, au plus bas, ouvrant la voie en 2026 à un supercycle, tiré par l’IA mais aussi par l’intégration de l’Edge AI dans les smartphones/PC. Un marché des semis à ~+15/20% en 2026 est crédible dans ce contexte. Dans notre couverture, cela devrait d’abord bénéficier à ASML, VAT, Siltronic, ASMi e...
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Bruno Cavalier
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
HO THALES SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
BAS BASF SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
SIK SIKA AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Bruno Cavalier
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
NDA AURUBIS AG
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VACN VAT GROUP AG
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
VUL VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
ARVEN ARVERNE GROUP SA
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Bruno Cavalier
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
NDA AURUBIS AG
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
PAL PALFINGER AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
TECN TECAN GROUP AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
VACN VAT GROUP AG
FTG111 FLATEXDEGIRO AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
VUL VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
ARVEN ARVERNE GROUP SA
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Bruno Cavalier
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
HO THALES SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
BAS BASF SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
RACE FERRARI NV
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
SIK SIKA AG
JEN JENOPTIK AG
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
ZGN ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA NV
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
ODDO : Memory: What if we were on the eve of a super cycle?
Memory prices have risen by 15% m-o-m and by ~30% since the start of 2025. This reflects a tight supply situation, with demand for AI stronger than expected. Memory inventories are also at an all-time low, paving the way for a super cycle in 2026, driven by AI but also by the integration of Edge AI in smartphones/PCs. A semis market at ~+15-20% in 2026 is a credible scenario in this context. In our coverage, this should first benefit ASML, VAT, Siltronic, ASMi and SUSS (Outperform vs Neutral), f...
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Wedbush Research
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TSLA TESLA INC
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
PTGX PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
STTK SHATTUCK LABS
STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
SYRE SPYRE THERAPEUTICS INC.
DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
- Anish Jog
- Daniel Ives
- Matthew Weiss
- Sam Brandeis
- Scott Devitt
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Wedbush Research
TSLA TESLA INC
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
ARVN ARVINAS HOLDING
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
ZBIO GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
ZENAS BIOPHARMA INC.
- Antoine Legault
- Matthew Bryson
TSLA TESLA INC
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AXTI AXT INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
STX INC.
GFS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Wedbush Research
TSLA TESLA INC
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
WVE WAVE LIFE SCIENCES
PTGX PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS
ANAB ANAPTYSBIO INC.
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
MDB MONGODB INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
ACET ADICET BIO INC
STTK SHATTUCK LABS
BEAM BEAM THERAPEUTICS
PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES
SNOW SNOWFLAKE INC. CLASS A
TTD THE TRADE DESK
PRME INC.
SYRE PRIME MEDICINE INC
JBIO SPYRE THERAPEUTICS INC.
JADE BIOSCIENCES INC
- Anish Jog
- Daniel Ives
- Matthew Weiss
- Sam Brandeis
- Scott Devitt
- Steven Wahrhaftig
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
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