Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on Infineon, as well as the broader Auto and Industrial market. This note follows recent ones we published on Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel/AMD, Semicap & TSMC. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk.
The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.
As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.
Yesterday President Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on all countries exporting to the U.S., with additional reciprocal tariffs calculated as a function of the U.S. trade deficit of each country. Follow the link below for our immediate thoughts and implications on our supply chain. We will circle back with more quantified analyses in the next couple of days.
In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. As the credit space still looks relatively well bid, TMT hybrid yields offer an attractive opportunity with yields above 3.5%. Higher quality TMT hybrids or lower duration TMT hybrids look most attractive from a relative value standpoint, such as the Telia, Orange and KPN hybrids. The risk/return perspective of the Infineon hybrid note looks unattractive.
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
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