reports
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Key Metrics from Weixin Open Class Pro 2024
What’s New: Tencent held a closed-door Weixin Open Class Pro event this year. We highlight some of the key metrics shared from segments including video accounts and mini games. We also updated our online game revenue estimates for 4Q23. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
Tencent: Updates on Online Game Measures and Other Business Segments
What’s New: We maintain our 4Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, ads, and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Softening tone from regulatory authority on online gam...
On 25 Dec 23, NPPA issued the 11th batch of domestic Banhao with 105 approvals, higher than previous monthly batches’ average of 85. We see a softening tone from NPPA’s draft on online game policy restrictions on 23 Dec 23. However, the execution and impact of the new regulations are yet to be tracked. We are cautiously optimistic on the online game sector’s growth in 2024 with the changes in the regulatory environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunit...
We expect resilient online games sector growth going into 2024, in view of a strong game grossing performance in 3Q23, solid game pipeline with multiple popular genres in 2024 as well as continuously favourable regulatory environment. We foresee ample monetisation opportunities from mini games and AIGC application. NetEase is our top pick given its strong position in the party games genre and margin improvement due to payment channel migration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, December 07, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong pipeline in 2024; ample monetisation opportunities from party games. Shipping And Ports: Near-term outlook still subdued; trade volume likely to see a moderate pick-up in 2024. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CSP (1199 HK/BUY/Target: HK$6.42). INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,140/Target: Rp2,500): Fixed broadband subscriber numbers might surge 385% from the migration of LINK’s customers. Maintain BUY. MALAYSIA Results Gamuda (GAM MK/BUY/RM4.41...
00144 CHINA MERCHANTS PORT HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS CO. LTD. CLASS H
GAM GAMUDA BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
1199 COSCO SHIPPING PORTS LIMITED
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
9999 HK NETEASE INC
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Results: Upside in Margins Amid Shift to High Quality Rev...
What’s new: Tencent’s reported 3Q23 revs were largely in line, while margins were above consensus and our expectations. Margins could see further upside amid shift to high-quality revenue growth model, and continued cost controls. We maintain our PT at HKD450. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Tencent Holdings (700 HK): 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ma...
Tencent’s 3Q23 results are in line with our expectations. Revenue grew 10.4% yoy to Rmb154.6b, in line with consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 5.2ppt yoy to 49.5%, better than consensus forecasts. Non-GAAP operating profit surged 35.6% yoy, and non-GAAP OPM expanded 6.7ppt yoy to 35.9%, beating our estimates. Non-IFRS net profit increased 39.3% yoy, 12.4% above consensus forecasts, given a positive revenue mix shift. Maintain BUY with a slightly higher target price of HK$425.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Daily: Thursday, November 16, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Stronger retail sales in Oct 23, but FAI stays weak. Initiate Coverage Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$13.04/Target: HK$17.68) Leading developer and TOD mall operator in China’s Tier 1 and 2 cities. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$105.90/Target: HK$186.00) 3Q23: Tempered top-line growth; 4Q23 outlook to be anchored by resilient 11.11 performance. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$322.60/Target: HK$425.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful ...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: 3Q23 results preview: Solid e-commerce ad growth to dr...
We expect e-commerce ads and overseas e-commerce expansion to be the main driving forces spurring stagnant growth in 3Q23 and beyond. In addition, we are optimistic about the better-the-expected growth in game gross profit and on-track OTA data on the back of strong seasonality. We are also looking out for meaningful progress in AIGC development in 3Q23 and better visibility in 4Q23. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Jin Yoon
BEKE 3Q23 Results: Property Market to Further Recover in 4Q
What’s new: KE Holdings results beat consensus and our expectations. Guidance implies sequential recovery in property market amid supportive policies including reduction in DP, lowering mortgage rates, and easing homebuying restrictions. We maintain our PT at USD 22. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, November 09, 2023
GREATER CHINA Results KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$39.40/Target: HK$58.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat; poised for meaningful recovery in 4Q23. LINK REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$38.40/Target: HK$50.70): 1HFY24: Results in line; ready for unit buyback. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Acceleration in government spending to support earnings in 4Q23. MALAYSIA Results Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings (MMHE MK/BUY/RM0.49/Target: RM0.65): 3Q23: Another lumpy provision recognised, but inevitably means MMHE...
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CC3 STARHUB LTD
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5186 MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY ENGINEERING HOLDINGS BHD
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
KCE KCE ELECTRONICS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
HLBANK HONG LEONG BANK BHD
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
MZH NANOFILM TECHNOLOGIES INTERNATIONAL
STM SEATRIUM LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK): 3Q23: Earnings beat; poised for meaningful ...
Beike’s 3Q23 earnings came in above expectations. 3Q23 revenue edged up 1% yoy to Rmb17.8b, 11.6% above consensus estimate. Non-GAAP net profit improved 14% yoy to Rmb2.2b due to increased operational efficiency, well above consensus estimate. Non- GAAP net margin expanded 1.4ppt yoy to 12% in 3Q23. Beike guided a 7.5-10.5% yoy recovery in 4Q23 revenue growth to Rmb18b-18.5b, 4% below our forecast. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$58.00 (US$21.00).
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Thursday, November 9, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/BUY/HK$39.40/Target: HK$58.00) 3Q23: Earnings beat; poised for meaningful recovery in 4Q23. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$38.40/Target: HK$50.70) 1HFY24: Results in line; ready for unit buyback. TRADERS’ CORNER China Literature Limited (772 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$29.00-30.20 Anta Sports Products Ltd. (2020 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$90.00-92.00
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Solid domestic game grossing growth in summer; expect ...
China’s online games market is expected to deliver an encouraging momentum in 3Q23, as reflected by the resilient growth in mobile grossing amid continuous favourable industry development. We opine there are monetisation opportunities for mini-games and AIGC, which will become growth catalysts for the online games market. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 3Q23 Preview: Estimates Remain Intact
What’s New: We maintain our 3Q23 estimates as overall business could remain largely intact. In this note, we discuss key updates including near-term outlook for segments including games, social network, ads, fintech and business services. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Strong growth in online ads and OTA likely to continue...
China’s internet sector delivered solid 2Q23 results with an earnings beat but this was followed by lukewarm 3Q23 guidance from most companies navigating macro uncertainty. In view of the intense competition and saturated growth, internet companies are ramping up AIGC investment and cross border expansion against a favourable regulatory backdrop. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the internet sector due to heavy investment in new initiatives leading to margin erosion.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
700 HK TENCENT 700 HK
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
9988 ALIBABA (9988 HK)
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
9618 JD.COM INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
9999 HK NETEASE INC
780 TONGCHENG TRAVEL HOLDINGS LTD
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Upgraded LLMs launched amid positive regulatory develo...
China saw the emergence of 130 LLMs as of end-Aug 23, surpassing the US and positioning it at the forefront of LLM development. AI-related guidelines incorporate enhanced government support and feature less stringent content accuracy requirements as the sector is being leveraged to stimulate economic growth, leading to a robust post-pandemic recovery. We remain optimistic in view of the initial regulatory approvals granted to 11 LLM products. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - September 2023
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins against a weakening macro backdrop. Add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Aug 23: Our picks: MYOR, BSDE, CTRA, HMSP, BBNI, SMGR and MAPI. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Warming Up For Better Months Ahead: Our Alpha Picks outperformed the FBMKLCI in Aug 23. Sep 23 picks: BUY BURSA, HAPL, HUME, MAHB, Mr DIY, My EG Servi...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MAPI MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
O39 MITRA ADIPERKASA
Y92 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BN4 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BSDE KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ADRO PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
601633 PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
601888 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS A
599A CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC SANDS CHINA LTD.
ROTI PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
02669 NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
2318 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SE PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
YNS SEA ADS
PTTEP-R YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
HMSP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
VSI HM SAMPOERNA TBK PT
BAL V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
SMM BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
MYEG SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
MINT MY EG SERVICES BHD
BURSA MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
CPALL TB BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
CPN-R CP ALL
GENM CENTRAL PATTANA PCL NVDR
MAHB GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
RATCH MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
2013 RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
6098 WEIMOB INC
HUME COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES
SCB-R HUME INDUSTRIES BHD
709 SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
HAPL GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
9988 HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
BEKE ALIBABA (9988 HK)
MRDIY KE HOLDINGS INC
KEX MR DIY GROUP M BHD
OR KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
1024 PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
TIDLOR KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 NGERN TID LOR PCL
BUKA BAIDU INC
2015 BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
CVL LI AUTO INC
9961 CIVMEC
BBNI TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
CLAS BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
SMGR CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
NATGATE SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
DELFI NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
LHN DELFI LTD
LHN LTD
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: September conviction calls.
Both the MSCI China and HSI fell about 8.5% in August as the lack of significant stimulus announcements dampened market sentiment. The August earnings season also saw relatively conservative management guidance and emphasis on cost efficiencies and asset light strategies. Against this backdrop, we focus on stocks with pricing power or sustainable margins; we add Giordano, KE Holdings and Trip.com to our BUY list.
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
1928-HK SANDS CHINA
1496219D BEIJING KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
TCOM US TRIP.COM TCOM US
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC
1024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY
9888 BAIDU INC
9961 TRIP.COM GROUP LTD
002912 SHENZHEN SINOVATIO TECHNOLOGY CO
- Jin Yoon
BEKE 2Q23 Results: Weak 3Q Guidance, New Policy Measures Can Drive Ups...
What’s new: KE Holdings reported top-line results were largely in-line with consensus and above our expectations. While guidance reflects challenging housing market, transaction volume could sequentially recover driven by supportive measures such as uniformly lowering DP for first and second-time buyers. We maintain our PT at USD 22. Analysts: Jin Yoon
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